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000
FXUS63 KPAH 082333
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Dropped all headlines for this issuance. I do expect some rain in
southeast this evening...possibly some light snow west of the Land
between the Lakes area. After midnight the column starts to dry
out as temperatures fall to freezing in the southeast. Kept some
patchy freezing fog overnight as shallow low level moisture lag
behind the system and over the snow field. The next wave of energy
arrives around midnight Monday night as a short wave rotates
through heartland. This will likely result in little more than
flurries or light snow. Right now minor accumulations dont appear
likely.

As for temps the southern half of the fa will approach or go
slightly above freezing during the afternoon but plunging below
freezing overnight through the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

High pressure at the surface is the predominant weather feature
through the workweek. First, the very cold early week high shifts
east, and a minor reinforcing shot of cool air comes down its
backside via an upper trof passage. This passage should be dry.

Then, another continental polar surface high moves overtop the
region. This keeps temperatures below normal through the period.
While there may be some clouds/moisture associated with the minor
trof passage, the models keep the forecast dry.

The big action comes late in the week into the next weekend. The
models stil show variance, but some unsettling of the pattern occurs
in the Friday night through Sunday time frame. The ecmwf looks a
little more progressive with the system, but both the ecmwf and the
gfs suggest associated pops with the formation/evolution/passage of
an upper level low pressure system next weekend. And because of the
temp profile at the time, this could be in the form of some kind of
wintry mix of snow, sleet, or freezing rain, depending upon the time
of day and areal coverage (north vs south) part of the region. For
now, given the variance in the models and the days 6-8 nature of the
event, we`ll keep simple either/or wording and slight to low chance
pops, with a brief mention in the HWO for the heads up at its
potential development.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

IFR cigs/vsbys have become commonplace, and a look at forecast model
soundings suggest little hope for improvement. Vsbys will be a
pain this evening and overnight as they seem to be jumping around
a lot. Cigs however...should remain IFR and may slip below that
from time to time...eventually and hopefully rising to mvfr by
Monday morning and afternoon. Vsbys should also improve by Monday
afternoon...possibly even after 14Z...but that will need to be
monitored

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...DH