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000
FXUS63 KPAH 092020
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

Another couple of days of dry weather are expected as high
pressure moves slowly east across the Great Lakes region. By
Friday night...a weak southerly return flow around the high will
bring increasing moisture and possibly some showers or storms.

In more detail...tonight will be mainly clear once the diurnally
enhanced cumulus clouds decrease after dark. A 500 mb shortwave
will move southeast into the Mississippi Valley late tonight. This
feature may bring a few mid or high clouds...but satellite
imagery and model data indicate skies will remain mainly clear.

Thursday should be nearly a carbon copy of today. There will be
very little change in low level temps or dew points. Scattered
high based diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday. These
clouds will diminish around sunset.

On Friday...southerly return flow will begin over Missouri. Some
showers or storms may extend as far east as the Ozark foothills.
An easterly component to the low level flow will hold relatively
dry air in place across most of the forecast area...so activity is
not expected to penetrate very far east on Friday.

On Friday night...there will likely be a convective complex in the
vicinity of a cold front over the Upper Missouri and Upper
Mississippi Valleys. This activity will tend to move
east/southeast. The activity will weaken or dissipate as it
encounters weaker inflow and decreasing instability.
However...will maintain small pops...mainly north of a kcgi/kowb
line Friday night.

As far as temps...will lower overnight lows closer to the cooler
gfs mos guidance. Nearly calm winds and mainly clear skies will
allow for strong radiational cooling. No change will be made to
daytime highs. Highs Thursday will be nearly identical to
today...and not a whole lot different Friday either.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

Forecast confidence not the greatest in the long term as one of the
main long term models was missing data during a critical couple of
periods, so leaned heavily toward the ECMWF.

The long term period starts out with a decaying frontal boundary in
the vicinity with plenty of moisture and northwest flow aloft.
Consequently precipitation chances are in the forecast for all or
part of the CWA, especially the northeast sections through Sunday
night.

From Monday through Tuesday a frontal boundary poised to the north
with continued northwest flow aloft and decent moisture will keep
precipitation chances in the forecast.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the infamous Polar Vortex will
drop southward into southeast Canada thus putting us deeper into the
northwest flow aloft enough to push a frontal boundary across the
area.

Temperatures should be near normal through the first half of the
period, then dropping below normal in the wake of the aforementioned
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Scattered high based cumulus clouds will become a little more
pronounced during the afternoon. Could not rule out some broken cigs
or even an isolated shower late this afternoon...but probabilities
appear too low for mention in the tafs. Mainly clear skies are
expected tonight into early Thurs morning with nearly calm winds. A
little ground fog is likely at the fog prone sites around sunrise.
Otherwise...Thursday morning will be mainly clear with light winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY