Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Main weather story in the short term is with another blast of cold
Canadian air Wednesday following what is expected to be a dry
frontal passage later today and early tonight. Little if any
return moisture will occur ahead of the front. After highs up into
the mid and upper 50s today, readings on Wednesday will be some
10-15 degrees colder. Highs may struggle to top 40 degrees along
the I-64 corridor. After another hard freeze and frosty start
Thursday morning, winds will turn more southerly and help temps
moderate just a bit into the mid 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The medium range models were in good agreement that a mostly static
mid level flow pattern across the CONUS will remain in place through
the rest of the week, with a longwave ridge in the southwestern
states and a longwave trof in the northeast. Some eastward movement
of the pattern should be seen by early next week.

Meanwhile, an impulse of shortwave energy is progged to plunge out
of the northern Plains and through the Midwest on Sat. Due to lack
of deep return moisture, the associated surface cold frontal passage
through our region is expected to be dry. By Mon night, return flow
is forecast to start up ahead of the next surface cold front, as a
mid level shortwave digs across the Great Lakes. As deep flow turns
southwesterly, there may be enough moisture return to generate some
shower activity on Tue (just beyond the current Day 7 period).

Temps, and to a lesser degree, dewpoints, will continue to have
peaks and valleys through the extended forecast period. The warmest
part of the period will be Fri/Fri night/Sat, with highs in the 50s
to 60, and lows near 40 Fri night. Otherwise, highs will be mostly
in the 40s and lows will be in the 30s to the upper half of the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A cold front will pass through the TAF sites from 23Z through 01Z.
Southwest winds will gust over 20kts at times ahead of the front,
and northwest winds will gust a bit for a few hours behind the
front. Gusts will be strongest in the northeast ahead of the front
and in the southwest behind the front. A band of mid-level clouds
will accompany the front through the region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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