


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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047 FXUS63 KPAH 290449 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1149 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered, and at times numerous, showers and storms expected through the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. - Independence Day looks seasonal with highs in the lower 90s and a 20% chance for a shower or storm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Modest low level confluence aided by PVA aloft led to showers and thunderstorms developing this morning with additional convection developing along the residual outflow boundaries this afternoon. Convective overturning within the boundary layer has stabilized things for the much of the region this afternoon. Additional convection can`t be ruled out in areas that haven`t received any shower or thunderstorm activity today. Shear continues to be very weak which helps to limit any severe weather chances, although precipitation loading could lead to gusty winds with any stronger storms. PW`s remain high and will remain through the weekend supporting heavy rainfall and possibly localized flooding. Another round of more focused shower/storm activity is being advertised from the models moving in from the west by Sunday morning. The increased cloud cover and rain will help keep temperatures lower then what we had the past week, with highs in the upper 80`s through the remainder of the weekend. Heading into next week, guidance favors a front progressing through the region Monday night. This continues to support PoPs Monday into Monday night but we should drier weather returning by Tuesday behind the front. Dry conditions will persist into Thursday ahead of southerly flow returning which will bring only slight chances of afternoon storms back into the forecast. Increasing heights aloft will support temperatures climbing back into the lower 90`s toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Unsettled summertime convection pattern expected to linger through much of this TAF issuance. The next wave of convection is expected to arrive from the west very late tonight into Sunday morning, which will lead to scattered showers and storms through much of the day Sunday, with perhaps more widespread rain coverage. Brief MVFR conditions expected in the heaviest downpours along with gusty erratic winds in thunderstorm activity. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MOZ107-108. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...KC