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000
FXUS63 KPAH 051147
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
547 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Main forecast concern in the near term is temperatures...which are
critical for snow and ice removal.

Overall the model guidance was several degrees too cold
yesterday...especially the gfs. The warmer ecmwf mos verified
better than either the nam or gfs. On this forecast cycle...the
gfs has trended warmer...while the nam has become the coldest
model. The ecmwf has been relatively consistent from run to run
and appears reasonable. Therefore forecast temps will be weighted
toward the ecmwf mos...which is closer to the gfs mos than the
nam.

A complicating factor this morning is the development of
widespread low stratus...which continues to move north into the
kmdh/kevv corridor as of 08z. There has also been patchy dense
fog...especially in se Missouri. This moisture is advecting
northwestward on southeast low level flow...which was completely
missed by all models including the RAP. The timing of clearing
will obviously affect temps today. The nam model soundings
indicate clearing around midday in the kpah area. Since the ecmwf
does not pick up on the low clouds...will subtract a few degrees
off ecmwf mos temps.

The models indicate northeast low level flow will resume this
afternoon and tonight...which is likely to reduce or eliminate the
potential of any stratus/fog redevelopment tonight. There will be
some mid and high clouds arriving as a 500 mb shortwave approaches
the Mississippi Valley.

On Thursday and Thursday night...the 500 mb shortwave will amplify
and evolve into a closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The models are now in excellent agreement on keeping the moisture
with this system to our south. Therefore...the forecast will
remain dry. As far as temps...will stay close to the ecmwf mos
where there is the least snow cover along the I 64 corridor. Will
subtract a few degrees over the deeper snow cover from kpah area
south and west.

Friday will be dry and milder as southerly low level flow
increases and an upper ridge axis forms in the wake of the
departing shortwave. Both ecmwf and gfs mos bring temps up well
into the 50s. The exception is over the deep snow cover in the
kpof area...where the ecmwf is cooler. Will trend forecast a
little closer to guidance...but still remain 5 to 10 degrees lower
than mos over the deeper snow cover in se Missouri.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Small chance of light precipitation remains in the forecast Saturday
through Saturday night as quasi phasing of northern and southern
streams and associated moisture move across the area. 00z ECMWF
seems a bit too strong and an outlier with h5 low coming out of the
srn plains. Dry the rest of the long term. Will transition to a WNW
flow pattern aloft. No noteworthy features to key in on and moisture
marginal for any precip generation. Thus will keep things dry. We
will see warmer temperatures overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 547 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

For kpah/kcgi...low stratus and freezing fog will produce lifr
conditions at times early this morning. Cigs will slowly rise and
fog will slowly burn off this morning...but ifr cigs will linger
until noon or so...followed by mainly clear skies. There is a low
potential for mvfr cigs this afternoon...but not enough to include
in tafs. Mainly clear skies are currently expected
tonight...though slight potential exists for redevelopment of
stratus and fog.

For kevv/kowb...low stratus and fog made into kowb but then slowed
down before reaching kevv. Expect ifr conditions to make it to
kevv very shortly...but duration of such conditions is very
uncertain. Northeast winds are expected to pick up this
morning...which may drive the low clouds and fog back out of both
sites this morning. Mainly clear skies are expected this afternoon
and tonight. Some light fog may form very late tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IL...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR ILZ080>094.

IN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR INZ085>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY