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000
FXUS63 KPAH 141209
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
709 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

A warming will get underway today as skies clear slowly from west
to east as low pressure finally lifts northeast out of the region.
Light southwest winds and a return to some sunshine should help
most locations breaK back into the lower half of the 80s. The
exception may be our far eastern counties, where clouds could hold
on into the afternoon hours. After the possibility of some
morning fog, mid level ridging on Friday into Saturday will result
in a continuation of a gradual warming trend. Ample sunshine will
push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s at most locations
both days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Forecast confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is
average with continued run-to-run and model-to-model variability.
The upper level pattern during this time will be dominated by a
ridge extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states. The
ridge should keep most of the active weather to the northwest of the
forecast area.

However, a couple of opportunities for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are present. The first arrives late Sunday night into
Monday as a weak frontal boundary drops south into the Lower Ohio
Valley. The second arrives by mid week with the approach of upper
level energy from the Plains. Neither chance is all that high and
the bulk of the period will likely remain dry.

With the upper level ridge in place and southerly flow in the low
levels, warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the
period. The forecast largely reflects a consensus model blend. Highs
should range in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 708 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

KCGI will see clearing skies through 10z, which may result in
a period of dense fog through 14Z over se MO and srn IL. IFR
stratus will also persist for a few hours over western Kentucky
and sw IN. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR returning to all region
later this morning. Winds will be light swly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM