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000
FXUS63 KPAH 160340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1040 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO RAISE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS WILL
STAY UP FROM THE SSW OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS DID LOWER SEVERAL
DEGREES VS. FORECAST AS DRIER WORKED IN FROM WEST TN INTO THE SE
1/2 OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM CNTRL IN AND IL INTO NRN MO NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...GIVEN THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD HOLD FRONT UP. WE ARE SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN
RIGHT NOW...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO PRECIP MENTION FOR MOST OF
THE AREA UNTIL VERY LATE AS MOISTURE SPREADS NE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE AR/SRN MO AS THE MID TROP LOW MOVES CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE PAH FORECAST IN AN UNSTABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH QPF AMOUNTS...TIMING AND LOCATION OF BEST POPS. FOR THE NEAR
TERM...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION...QPF AVERAGES WILL ACROSS THE REGION DO
NOT SEEM LIKELY TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD PRODUCING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE HARD TO
COME BY WITH MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL INDUCED LIFT AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ENERGY PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. A WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH
OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY IS SUPPOSED TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH KEEPING
US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS BUILD AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA SUNDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS...OTHERWISE THERE ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA WIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA. DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SO HAVE
MENTION OF THUNDER IN ALL PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED WITH THE TAFS UPCOMING. SSW WINDS AOB
10 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH/MID CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME KIND OF HINT AT CONVECTION THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR WSW MOVES INTO THE AREA. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CIG OR VSBY ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...OTHER THAN WHERE THERE IS
RAIN/CONVECTION. WILL KEEP SCT-BKN DECK ABV 3K/FT FOR NOW AS SSW
WINDS PERSIST IN THE 6-12 KT RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$