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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232225
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley
will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes
region by Sat night. The result in our sensible weather will be a
continuation of rain free and unseasonably warm conditions right
through the first half of the weekend. High temps should push 90
or so Sat, 10-15 degrees or above normal values for this time of
year. However, things should cool down quite nicely around/after
sunset.

Northern stream mid lvl short wave and associated cold front will
begin to approach the region Sunday night as closed upper low
retrogresses sw toward the Baja of CA. Will begin to introduce
chancy POPs, esp after midnight over the nw 1/3 of the forecast
area. Right now it appears that the main punch of energy with the
nrn branch wave should stay north of the region. Given this and
the diurnal aspect of the precip, confidence is fairly high that
this will be a low impact type event.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The medium range models are in much better agreement now than they
have been in recent days.

By Monday, a significant mid level trof over the Rockies will have
moved eastward into the upper Midwest after spinning off a cut-off
low toward Baja California. The ECMWF appeared to have the least
amplified depiction of this northern stream feature. The energy
contained within this progressive trof will have the effect of
vanquishing the mid level ridge over the PAH forecast area after the
weekend.

The aforementioned trof will drag a surface cold front through our
region early Monday. This should result in some scattered shower and
tstm activity in the vicinity of the front. It appears the best bulk
shear (mainly across southern IL/southwestern IN) will be post-
frontal, and mid level instability will be limited, therefore severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. By afternoon, cold air
advection should be well underway, limiting peak temps 7-12 degrees
cooler than Sunday.

The PAH forecast area should be rain-free by Monday night. Wrap-
around cloudiness and continued cold advection will mean Tuesday and
Tuesday night will be the coolest of the seven-day forecast, with
lows perhaps dipping below 50 in some places, and highs only in the
lower half of the 70s. Ridging is progged to build back in through
most of the week, resulting in dry conditions and gradually
moderating temps, back to seasonable levels by Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 522 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

High pressure will continue to dominate throughout the
atmospheric column, keeping VFR conditions xcp for the nightly/pre
dawn patchy fog under the clear sky/light wind regime. KCGI/KPAH
may restrict to IFR or LIFR at times, while KEVV/KOWB should be
MVFR. The fog will again burn off rapidly after the sun breaks the
horizon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$