Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032031
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
231 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A minor mid level trof axis will pass through the PAH forecast
area today, providing enough lift to maintain a deck of low clouds
during the daylight hours. The clouds are expected to dissipate
during the evening hours. Winds will slowly become more nwrly
through Thursday, becoming lighter with time.

Meanwhile, a second trof axis is forecast to move through our
region on Thursday with little fanfare. This will be followed by
ridging at the sfc and aloft. Thus, the passage of the trof axis
will tend to reinforce chilly temperatures through Thursday night.

The flow aloft will return to swrly by Friday. This, coupled with
the beginnings of low level return flow late Friday, will provide
the start of a weekend warming trend along with a subtle increase
in dewpoint temperatures. No pcpn is forecast in the short term
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Forecast confidence is quite high in the overall synoptic evolution
through the extended portion of the forecast. Of course, some
questions remain in the sensible weather details/timing.

The 12Z models are in very good agreement in passing a deep
trough/closed low aloft along the Gulf Coast Saturday. As this
trough pushes farther east, southerly winds will develop over our
region early Sunday. Highs in the 50s and a low in near freezing can
be expected throughout the region over the weekend.

A major upper-level trough will dig southeast over the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley regions Sunday night and Monday. A
surface trough will push quickly through the region early Monday,
ushering in much cooler/drier air. Winds will veer to the west and
then northwest and become quite gusty.

The 12Z models all develop a north/south oriented band of QPF with
this storm system, but the timing and locations vary. Temperatures
will be quite warm to start out Sunday evening, but they will drop
very quickly throughout the troposphere as the system moves in. The
GFS is the coldest and would support all snow after 06Z, with the
exception of the Pennyrile, but the ECMWF and GEM are not quite so
quick to bring the cold air into the region. As usual, will play the
middle ground in the official forecast and expect temperatures to
trend downward with time. For now will have a rain/snow mix through
Monday.

This storm system will carve out a highly amplified large-scale
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley trough, in response to a highly amplified
west coast ridge. The 12Z models are in pretty good agreement in
this amplified pattern lingering through at least Wednesday and
possibly through the entire work week. Trying to time impulses
diving into the base of the trough just east of our area Monday
night through Wednesday will be difficult, so will keep PoPs in the
20-30% range with only very minor QPF. Certainly cannot rule out
some minor accumulating snow, especially given what should be
enormous snow to liquid ratios. Will have to wait to insert these
details until the models have locked in on them.

As for temperatures, we should drop well below freezing by Tuesday
and especially Wednesday. I would not discount the cold air
advertised by the GFS at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A low VFR cig, rapidly progressing across the PAH forecast area
today, is expected to persist into the evening hours. Wrly winds
will gust around 20 kts at times today, then pick up a more nwrly
direction and diminish to below 10 knots tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DB


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