Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160519 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Low pressure in the Desert Southwest will slowly work its way
across the Southern Plains, and be be approaching the Quad State
by the week`s end. Until then, we`ll be sandwhiched between the
backside of a long wave trof riding along the Eastern U.S. and
surface to upper high pressure in the High Plains. Overall, we`ll
see H5 heights rise some nearly 20 DM by the end of the week.

The resultant forecast will be dry/seasonal with a warming column
each day. We`ll follow our previous forecasters`/neighbors leads
to nudge a tad upward from blended Highs to capture the strength
of sunshine/anticipated warmup best. Clouds will start to increase
by Friday as the Low drifts into the lower Ms valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Saturday through Wednesday

An upper level trof will bring an increase in clouds to the region
Saturday, and possible a few sprinkles or light showers to mainly
west Kentucky.  Models have gone back and forth on just how much
precipitation will actually occur and how far northwest precipitation
chances will spread, but at this time it looks pretty insignificant.
Went with just some slight chances in west Kentucky and a small
portion of southeast Missouri during the daytime hours Saturday.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the lower
to middle 60s, with lows Saturday night in the middle 40s.

Clouds will decrease from west to east Saturday night as the upper
low moves well off to our east.  With plenty of sunshine and south
to southwest winds, it will be even warmer than Sunday with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70s degrees.  This is around 20 degrees
above seasonal normals.  These very warm conditions will persist
well into the work week.

As we get into the work week, confidence remains low.  Models have
been very inconsistent with each other and themselves with the
timing and track of low pressure systems to our north and south and
an associated cold front.  The latest Canadian has widespread
precipitation from late Monday night through Wednesday.  The latest
GFS and ECMWF have light precipitation in our region by Tuesday
night, however ECMWF has it mainly across our northern counties
while the GFS has it across our south.  These inconsistent solutions
lend themselves to keeping shower possibilities in the slight chance
to chance categories where we have them.  Went with chances reaching
areas along the Mississippi River by 12z Tuesday, then went with low
chances Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with decreasing chances by
Wednesday afternoon.  Overall the event will not be significant, but
it is very difficult to pinpoint when our best chances will be at
this point.  Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the 60s to
around 70s, with Monday the warmest of the 3 days, and lows will be
in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.


Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Light and
variable winds through 18Z, then will increase to AOB 10 knots
out of the south southwest with a few higher gusts possible at
KCGI between 15-00Z.




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