Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Patchy fog observed mainly SW 2/3 of the area. At KPAH, obs have
been all over the place (not fully representative of what`s really
out there), as it is shallow, variable and really not all that
problematic. Think the sensors elsewhere likely encountering same
type of conditions, though there is patchy dense fog for sure some
areas (southern sections). So, the SPS is fine handling what`s a
variable event.

Very warm today and Monday, with H9/H8 temps forecast close to the
same as what was seen on the 00z upper air data yesterday. Better
mixing Monday. So highs similar today to yesterday, and warmer
Monday. Stayed with the theme of using warmest model/MOS numbers.
Mild nights tonight and Monday night, closer to temps off the
models.

Removed PoPs prior to 06z Monday night. However, chances for
showers and maybe a few storms, should increase rapidly 06z-12z
from the NW as a frontal boundary and axis of moisture and
marginal instability move in. The models continue to be a tad
faster. Will carry likely to Categorical PoPs for showers and a
few storms Tuesday morning across the area, tapering off PoPs in
the afternoon. Given the progressive nature of the system, and
marginal instability, not worried about any heavy rain aspect.
1/3-2/3" looks like a good average for rainfall. We linger chances
in the evening Tuesday over the SE 1/3 of the area, with mainly
dry conditions after midnight Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

In the wake of Tuesday`s cold frontal passage, a transition to
seasonably cool weather will occur mid week as high pressure builds
east from the Plains. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Wednesday,
but clouds will be on the increase Thursday as a weak weather
disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains. Most of the
substantial moisture with this feature is forecast to remain above
10kft, so any light precipitation should tend to evaporate before
reaching the ground. A few sprinkles are not out of the question
though.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast to set up
late in the week. An upper level ridge will become established over
the nation`s mid section as a trough deepens in the east. Models
continue to disagree on the westward extent of the trough on Friday,
and this may make a difference with respect to precipitation
potential Halloween evening. The last two 00Z runs of the ECMWF
sharpen the trough further west and indicate a chance for light
precipitation over at least the eastern half of our forecast area.
However, the rest of the model suite, including the ensembles, keep
the influence of the trough further east as a strong high builds
south from Canada. We continue to favor the dry solution at this
time.

Much more certain is the infiltration of much colder air by the
weekend. The first widespread killing frost and even freeze appears
likely Saturday night--if not Friday night--with lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday will likely struggle into the
lower 50s despite ample sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Fog observed at KPAH is rather shallow, patchy, with the obs not
fully representative of what is really going on. This may be the
same at other sites across the area, though there is shallow fog
out there for sure. This will burn off quickly around daybreak,
with VFR conditions the rule the rest of the day, and calm winds
becoming SSE 5-10kts. Would not rule out a few cu west KY into
SEMO later today. Winds will veer a bit to the south tonight with
little if any cloud cover.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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