Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 252340
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

As a low pressure system continues to churn west of the PAH
forecast area, light showers continue to dot the radar screens
this afternoon. So far, there has not been any lightning, but
there is a slight chance of it, and with moderate shear aloft,
limited instability might still allow an updraft or two to get
going enough for marginally severe hail or wind this afternoon,
especially where insolation can occur.

The models suggest a dry slot will move into the region this
afternoon from the west, possibly limiting the strength and
coverage of deep moist convection temporarily. Toward evening, the
stacked low pressure system is progged to move closer before
skipping off the PAH forecast area in a northeasterly direction.
Mid level energy embedded within it may provide additional lift
for a minimal resurgence of showers west of the MS River.
Meanwhile, showers are expected to continue in the eastern half
through the overnight period and into Sunday morning, gradually
diminishing from the west. Clouds should hang on for the rest of
the daylight hours Sunday, but should go partly cloudy Sunday
night for the only rain-free period of the short term.

Monday and Monday night will feature yet another tight low
pressure system right on the heels of the current one; this one
will have a more easterly trek and is progged to damp out as it
moves eastward. There should be enough instability for scattered
tstms to develop Monday across the area, and if wind/instability
parameters sync up, some storms could possibly be severe, mainly
in the southern third of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Surface high pressure building east across the Great Lakes region
will bring a brief lull in the wet weather for most regions
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, with seasonably mild afternoon
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. However a H50 split flow upper
low and its associated surface low will move east out of the
southern Plains states by later in the week, bringing with it our
next rain event. Right now, it appears the the surface low itself
will pass well south of our region, and that is where the more
unstable conditions will likely stay. Therefore, for now anyway,
will leave out any mention of thunder with this system. If the low
were to travel much farther north, a mention of thunder would be
warranted. Fair weather high pressure should make a return by early
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A broken line of strong showers will be dancing around KCGI and
KPAH in the next few hours. Kept the TAFs VFR for this activity
this evening, as it may not hold together long, but AMDs may be
necessary. Gusts into the teens will be possible for another hour
or two. A dry slot will progress eastward through the night, and the
convective activity will also shift east and may eventually
impact KEVV and KOWB in the late evening. Winds will diminish
significantly behind the convective line, but should still be
strong enough to prevent fog formation even if skies clear as
expected. A large area of MVFR ceilings will flirt with KCGI and
KEVV from mid-morning through early afternoon. Southwest winds may
become gusty in the afternoon especially if the lower clouds
scatter out.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS


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