Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 633 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 12Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The unusually mild January temperatures will continue throughout the
short term. Otherwise, the main concern in the short term is a storm
system pivoting northeast across our region through early Friday.
Model consensus is that the 500mb trough passes to the NE of the FA
Friday morning thus diminishing rain chances. Instability parameters
continue to at least weakly support thunder with this system as
surface dewpoints rise to around 50 north and to the uppers 50s
southeast by this evening.

The more moisture laden southeast/Pennyrile region of W KY
stands to receive the greatest rainfall with this system with
amounts at or just above 1.5 inches forecast. WPC outlines the
southern Pennyrile as a marginal risk of exceeding flash flood
guidance. Will address this in the HWO and possibly a SPS but do not
believe a Flood Watch is warranted at this time as enhanced rainfall
rates are unlikely to persist long enough at any one place to cause
much concern for flash flooding. At the least the rainfall will tend
to aggravate any ongoing river flooding. The W/NW parts of the FA
should see amounts of a 1/2 inch or less. Rain chances will decrease
west to east tonight beginning over SE MO this evening, possibly
even by afternoon in parts of SE MO. Will maintain small POPs Friday
morning with a warm front in the vicinity.

By early Saturday a weak disturbance moves NE through the 500mb SW
flow. This will result in a chance of showers Saturday morning
mainly over W KY. Expect very little QPF with this system. By
Saturday night a closed 500mb low moves E from the southern plains
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chance will
then increase as the low progresses E toward the TN Valley/Gulf
coast states Saturday night.

Near record warm temperatures are forecast for Saturday with highs
from the mid 60s across the NW parts of the FA to around 70 in the
southeast. Records for Saturday are 71 at Evansville, 70 at Paducah,
and 68 at Cape Girardeau. Near record warm low temps are also
forecast Saturday with lows projected in the lower to mid 50s.

LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Two weather systems will affect our region in the long-term period.
The first system will bring widespread rainfall and possibly a few
thunderstorms Sunday. The next system during the middle of the week
looks relatively dry.

On Sunday, a deepening storm system will track eastward across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The rain shield associated with the comma
head of the mid/upper level circulation will pass near or over
southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. Weak elevated instability
associated with southeast low-level flow in the morning could result
in thunder. The deep-layer flow will gradually back into the east
and then northeast by Sunday night as the low moves into the
Tennessee Valley. Forecast precip chances will be categorical Sunday
in parts of southeast MO and west KY, and in the likely category
further north.

The low pressure system will continue to deepen Sunday night as it
reaches the Smoky Mountains. In fact, the 00z ecmwf deepens the
central pressure all the way to 979 mb. As the system moves away,
precip will diminish. However, surface winds will increase from the
north/northwest as the system intensifies. Breezy conditions are
expected Sunday night into Monday.

Monday looks mainly dry based on the 00z gfs and ecmwf deterministic
models. The gfs ensemble mean is slower to move the surface low
east, which is why it lingers some light rain into Monday east of
the Mississippi River. The forecast will contain some small pops
east of the Mississippi River on Monday. Cooler air will arrive
Monday on brisk northwest winds. Highs will be near 50.

Dry weather is expected Monday night and Tuesday as a weak surface
ridge moves across our region. Lows will be in the mid and upper
30s, with highs in the lower to mid 50s.

During the middle of next week, a fairly strong low pressure system
will move northeast from the central Plains to the Great Lakes
region. This system is not forecast to tap into any subtropical
moisture sources. The models indicate very little if any rainfall
will accompany the trailing cold front, which will cross the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday. The forecast will contain a slight
chance pop for Tuesday night ahead of the front.

Issued at 633 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

KCGI and KPAH will have a couple hours of moderate to heavy rain
showers early this morning as a large area of showers and possible
thunderstorms spread NE. Expect IFR conditions, possibly briefly
LIFR conditions with this round of rain followed by improvement by
late morning especially for KCGI. Area of showers will impact KEVV
and KOWB after 14Z although scattered showers will impact those
sites before hand. Showers will end late this afternoon or evening
at KCGI/KPAH but continue at the other sites into the evening.
IFR ceiling and visibilities will continue through much of the


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