Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 110530
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 115 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A clipper type system will be weakening as its energy feeds into
the PAH FA...currently ongoing and diving southeastward thru the
late pm/early evening hours. Models squeeze out a couple
hundredths qpf...though Jackson and Perry(s) counties may see
double or triple that. That means we could see about 3 counties,
more or less, with the potential to get up to a half inch or so.
But with the considerable weakening trend...most will see little
to no effect. However with sub freezing temps, we`ll keep hitting
the SPS and graphical nowcasts hard for any isolated issues that
may crop up on the work/school commute home.

We see another similar clipper type system affect the lower Ohio
River Valley Friday. This time, the ribbon of scant qpf is just
off to our north and east. We`ll carry slgt chance pops to cover
SWIN/NWKY for this glancing shot, with again, little overall
effect.

Both systems mentioned above reinforce the cold air over
the region...as we we continue with teens and 30s largely for our
lows/highs...some exceptions noted.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Medium confidence in extended. Slightly higher confidence in cold
and snow this weekend.

Cold High surface pressure will build into the region Saturday as a
1040mb high skirts along the I-64 corridor. The northwest flow aloft
will stay in place until the high shifts to our east. As this high
drifts east the flow aloft slowly becomes zonal and finally
southwesterly. This will allow for adequate moisture to lift into
the heartland. Also a weak cold front will move through in tandem
with the moisture arrival. At this time it appears the
temperatures will be just cool enough for snow mainly Sunday
night. Then as it ends Monday afternoon it will probably turn to
very light rain or a mix as the southerly flow brings in warmer
temperatures. Amounts are very difficult to predict this far out
especially with the very dry air that we will have to saturate
before anything reaches the ground. However if it were all to
come together there could be anywhere from a half inch in the
Ozarks to 2 to 3 inches up around the Evansville tri state area.
There still remains a great deal of uncertainty that far out with
available moisture and temperatures but at this time that is what
the models are advertising and they are in very good agreement
especially with the timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the forecast period as the
current system moves away from the area.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith


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