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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211121
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Updated for 12Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

High pressure aloft will remain anchored from the Great Lakes
region southwestward through the Southern Plains during the short
term forecast period. Subsidence inversion aloft should serve to
suppress most of the convection that may try to form during the
heat of the day, though an isolated storm or two cannot be
completely ruled out. High temperatures will near or top the 90
degree mark in most locations each day through Saturday, but
readings should stay 3-5 degrees or so below the records, which
generally are running in the mid 90s. High humidity will combine
with the very warm readings to push heat indices up into the mid
90s to near 100 in many locations this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The mean and deterministic 00Z model runs keep the same long term
theme...ridging of high pressure at the surface/aloft keeping warm
and generally dry conditions thru the early week period, followed by
a transition to falling heights (ultimate. Subsidence
inversion aloft should suppress most of the convly a frontal passage) and
moisture surge/disturbed weather with the transition, ultimately
leading to some wet weather mid week and a subsequent cool down.
Am hard pressed to argue much beyond the overall blend, save for
collaborative agreement to eliminate scarce or spotty pops in the
early stages of Sunday-Monday time period namely, though cannot
rule out the (silent) isolated heat of day development altogether.
By Tuesday-Wednesday, should see an environment more conducive to
supporting Pops/wx, as height falls and approaching front enter
the forecast picture. Daytime highs will continue in the mid and
upper 80s/same for night time lows in the mid and upper 60s, which
is where dew points will hover and thus, retain the summer like
humid feel to the warmth as well. This will be the case daily,
with maybe a one cat bump down on Wed, as change is ushered in.
This signals the onset of seeing the below normal temps/pcpn on
the latest 8-14 day outlook coming to fruit.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Some
possibility of patchy dense fog between 06Z-14Z, but winds may
stay up just enough to preclude any major development.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$