Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE WATCH IS SET TO EXPIRE SHORTLY...BUT AN ISOLATED
CELL OR TWO MAY STILL BEAR WATCHING. OTHERWISE STRATIFORM/POST
FRONTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES IN THE NORTHERN PTNS OF
THE FA...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH EXISTS THRU 12Z.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR IS FORTHCOMING. POST FRONTAL TEMPS
WILL STAY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...THEN STRUGGLE THEIR WAY
IN/THRU THE 40S TMRW. SIMILARLY LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT WILL COOL
TO 20S FOR TMRW NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ANTICIPATED FA WIDE SO
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. SATURDAY STILL RAW TOO WITH
40S/20S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE SUNDAY INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.  GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAH FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE CANADIAN, BUT OVERALL THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND ARE THE PREFERRED WAY TO GO.  KEPT SUNDAY DRY AND WENT
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.  WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE A BRIEF SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING THROUGH MID WEEK.  BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS BRING A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE PAH FA BY 00Z THURSDAY.  GFS
BRINGS AN UPPER TROF JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
SPREADS PRECIP NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF SPREADS
PRECIP SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW
CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE, AND WENT DRY TUESDAY, SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF COUNTIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MID WEEK, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PREDOMINANT RAINS ARE OCCURRING AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE THE RULE OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. A
SHOWERY/MVFR DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF IT...EVEN IF OVERALL...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS NOW TAPPED OUT MUCH FURTHER THAN
EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE FA AROUND THE
TIME OF THE SUNSET.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
     084-085-088.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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