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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270941
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

STILL HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...AND RE-EVALUATE
AT THAT TIME WHETHER TO CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...AND WIND
CHILLS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW ZERO. KMDH AT -2 IS THE ONLY
SUB-ZERO READING AS OF 09Z. FIGURE THAT 0 TO -5 WILL CATCH MOST
AREAS BY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO.

THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...AND AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AT LEAST WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO DROP MUCH TONIGHT.

TRIED TO MODEL THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THE ECMWF AND
NAM. LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY. IT WILL START OUT AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW
AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO STAY
CLOSE TO WPC QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AND THAT RESULTS IN ONLY VERY
MINOR ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY 15Z SUNDAY THE ENTIRE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...AS THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES AS ALL RAIN. LOOKING LIKE A DREARY DAY SUNDAY...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT STAGGERING BY ANY MEANS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BRIEF
WINTRY EPISODE WITH IMPACTS DISSIPATING QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT DO NOT THINK IT
WORTHY OF EVEN AN SPS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS AN INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
IN BRINGING IT THROUGH WHILE THE NEWEST AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS
ARE A BIT SLOWER. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH
DECREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHALLOW
COLD AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS WILL
MEAN A CHANCE FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS EVEN MORE WITH THIS
PACKAGE. IF ANYTHING IS LEFT ON MONDAY MORNING...IT WILL BE IN THE
FAR SOUTH AND IT COULD STILL BE SOME FREEZING RAIN. LEFT MONDAY
AFTERNOON DRY.

MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT FADES BY THE TIME YOU GET TO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAD BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS US...WITH MOISTURE/QPF RETURNING
IN EARNEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF ALMOST LEAVING US FAIRLY DRY THE ENTIRE NIGHT. THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT...ADVERTISING A MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EVENT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT BELIEVE THE STRENGTH OF
THE SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE RETURN FLOW. WILL SPLIT THE
MONDAY NIGHT WX GRID TO SHOW LOWER POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN RAMPING THINGS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONCERN OVER
TEMPERATURES AND HENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS RETURN
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AS BIG A CONCERN NOW...AS EVERYTHING
SUGGESTS WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LIQUID EVENT.

THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK
TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMONPLACE.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TWEEKS
EVERY DAY TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF RAINFALL...SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES...IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. COLD AIR DOES RETURN AND
STARTS INVADING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO DEAL WITH SOME WINTRY MIX AS ITS ENDING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY UP BUT GUST WILL DIMINISH. COULD SEE A LOW DECK DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE WITH HEATING BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 2K FEET. EXPECT TO SEE
MVFR TO PREVAIL IN THE LAST LEG OF THE TAF FOR ALL SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...KH