Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181945

245 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Isolated convection will remain possible into early this evening
due to daytime heating and the weak boundary draped across the PAH
forecast area. The boundary will wash out tonight, keeping the
area dry. Calm winds could again lead to some fog development
across the area.  Models are in decent agreement showing a surface
low moving over the Great lakes region by 00z Wednesday, dragging
a cold front into the middle Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday
afternoon. Models shows most widespread convection and QPF across
the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then again late Wednesday
night mainly for our northeast/east counties. Went with chance
pops during these time periods, then went with slight to low
chance pops Tuesday and Wednesday. The shift back to southwest to
south winds by Tuesday will lead to increasing temperatures and
dew points Tuesday through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Ridge begins to build in over the Ohio Valley during this period.
Kept the northeast sections in low pops with northwest flow
situations through Saturday with little elsewhere. Difficult to time
the precip at this time, but the edge of several MCSs could clip the
area. The ridge will bring us close to heat advisory criteria
starting Thursday, mainly for low values but for several days.

The ridge hangs around until the middle of the last week of August.


Issued at 129 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR vsbys and VFR to occasional MVFR cigs expected into this
evening. MVFR fog again expected late tonight, with drops to IFR
possible especially at KCGI. Isolated showers and storms possible
through 01z, then again after 13z, but chances too low to include
in TAFs. Northwest winds around 5 kts will become light to calm
tonight, then pick up from the southwest around 5 kts after 13z.




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