Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 302347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Tropical like environ with dew points hovering around 70F and
temps ranging thru the 80s. Isolated to widely scattered showers
starting to become a little more numerous Lakes area wky as we
head thru the peak diurnal heating hours...but still low chance
pops type coverage. This will persist into/thru the evening, after
which we should see maybe an isolated shower but less than
mentionable pops for zfp.

Slowly surface high pressure retrogrades back across Ohio River
valley thru Tuesday. Still lingering presence of Low pressure
aloft may touch off an isolated any time shower or storm, but will
leave Mon-Tue dry as inherited until a stronger signal is noted.

Temps/Dew points wont move much. Highs will range u80s/nr 90 and
lows will range u60s/nr 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day.

Compared to yesterday, the models have come into better agreement
that a weak upper-level low to our south will have no impact on our
region. The upper low is forecast to drift southeast to the Gulf
Coast by Labor Day weekend. As the upper low drifts away, the upper
ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Illinois/Indiana area. A
deep easterly flow of dry air is expected through much of the period.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points this summer. The ground
has become significantly drier since the July flooding events, which
supports a forecast of lower humidity levels.

The pronounced easterly component to the flow, along with 850 mb
temps hovering mostly in the upper teens, suggests highs will not
exceed the lower 90s. The forecast will remain consistent with highs
around 90 each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR clouds are expected tonight.
Any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity should largely diminish
through mid evening with loss of daytime heating. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible again late tonight. Added a temporary reduction to IFR at
KCGI given guidance values and KPAH with the late afternoon shower
here. Mainly dry weather will prevail on Monday, but an isolated
shower or storm is not entirely out of the question. Winds will be
southerly around 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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