Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 011732

1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

As expected, clouds had a hard time dispersing. With high pressure
staying situated to the north, and developing low pressure moving
overhead, despite post frontal cool/dry advection, the atmospheric
column as a whole is having a hard time fully dispersing the
clouds. This trend wont be a whole lot better today, with neutral
to negative surface isallobaric tendencies across the south/east.
But across the north/west, positive anomalies are modeled and may
lead to a longer duration of sunshine today.

By 00Z Friday, the evolution of the upper Low across the Tn valley
will help induce an advecting moist tongue that should spell
spotty shower activity in our far southeastern counties...certainly
enough to warrant a slgt chance mention. After sunset, however,
diurnal flare enhanced instability lessens and should just mean
lingering clouds/silent pops for the overnight hours.

Friday-Friday night still looks to be the best chance of rain. By
then, the southward migration of the Low ends up helping sweep
tropical moisture from approaching Joaquin, as far north and west
as the Commonwealth, including basically our eastern half of the
CWA. We`ll have slgt chance-chance mentions ongoing, bumped up
slightly this package as each successive model run has supported a
wetter solution.

Saturday-Saturday night sees the Low migrate far enough to the
south and east to take us out of the PoP picture, even as some
wake high pressure ridging aloft noses into the Mid Ms valley from
the west. The tricky part will be the farthest east/southeast
counties...whether to maintain a slgt mention or silent Pop, which
we`ll leave to press time collab efforts.

While we might see a 70 here or there today, temps will range
through the 60s for highs, mainly, thru the short term. Similarly
isolated 50s notwithstanding, we`ll see predominant 40s for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Although the track of Joaquin to and from the U.S. coastline
continues to be refine by the NHC, the medium range models appear
to phase the upper level trough, currently over WFO PAH, with this
tropical system as it moves toward the east coast.

This situation yields an uncommon reversal from the mean pattern.
Namely, the center of the nation will see a ridge, while
California and the Florida/Georgia coast see low pressure
translate and develop.

For the WFO PAH forecast area, this will mean dry and seasonable
weather through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday onward, the
California low become progressive and moves close to the WFO PAH
forecast area by next Thursday. The model blend forecast leans
toward a slower movement of this system, with the best rain
chances primarily over Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri
next Thursday. The interplay between the east and west coast lows
and the tropical system will eventually determine the coverga of
weather into the area Thursday.


Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Deck of MVFR clouds from KEVV to KCEY and east of that line with
diurnal CU developing elsewhere. Verified the wind gust forecasts
with some locales at or just above 20 kts. Through the afternoon
the RAP model, which has the best handle on the clouds, pushes the
MVFR cigs SW and diminishes the area with time. However, moisture
is still prevalent 4-6k/ft, so even though we expect improvement
there will still be some bkn cigs VFR, especially west KY. Tonight
there is a temporary decrease in low level moisture. Backed off
winds to around 6-8 kts NNE. We will bring back in lower clouds
but just above MVFR by 12z or so. Winds should become gusty again
from the NNE, some gusts around 20 kts.



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