Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 042100
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Visibility is already improving considerably in central MO but will
likely remain 4SM or less for portions of southern IL and southwest
IN early this afternoon. Dry air aloft and high pressure will move
in quickly to squelch light rain and drizzle from west to east later
this afternoon. While the short term blend speeds along with
clearing cloud cover this evening, much of synoptic guidance keeps
low lvl moisture trapped in the area and points to at least
patchy fog for much of the area late tonight and into early Mon AM.

The next precip producing system approaches Mon from TX with
significantly better forcing than the weekend system as the sfc low
passes along the KY/TN border, along with its associated upper lvl
shortwave energy. While slight chc pops come in Mon afternoon due to
NAM influence, generally not expecting rain until Mon night when
higher moisture content is present again. Little instability reaches
our FA overnight but can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder in the
Pennyrile region of west KY before dawn Tues AM. Most model guidance
keeps low levels above freezing overnight, removing chances of any
frozen precip. The blend`s storm totals give a reasonable half inch
to one inch area wide with the heaviest amounts falling Mon night
overnight into early Tues. Rain should move west to east out of the
FA by Tues afternoon. North winds behind this system will bring much
cooler conditions for Tues night into early Wed with lows bottoming
out into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Temperatures through the short term period moderate diurnally less
than normal due to cloud cover. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in
the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The 12Z models are in reasonably good agreement in indicating a
transition from broad troughing aloft over much of the country
Wednesday night to more of a fast zonal flow by next weekend. At
the surface, an arctic high pressure system will surge south and
east over the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday. The
surface high will build east of the area by the weekend, allowing
southerly winds to develop.

There is considerable and persistent disagreement between the
GFS/CMC and the ECMWF solutions with regard to the Arctic surge
Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS and CMC are virtually dry
with the surge, but the ECMWF develops a wave on the leading
edge/cold front, and runs it northeast just east of our region. It
has been trending farther east with this development, and
subsequently seems to be trending drier for our area. Really think
that this will be a dry system, but we continue to have chance
PoPs for a combination of rain and/or snow with the only warm
layer expected at the surface.

The ECMWF and GFS have both been trying to bring another storm
system into our region in the fast zonal flow aloft this weekend.
Zonal background flow is not a high confidence situation to base
a major weather-maker on in Day 7. The latest trends in both the
GFS and ECMWF are for warm advection forcing to develop over the
southeast half of the area primarily on Sunday, which should
generally keep temperatures just above freezing or at the very
least limit any wintry precipitation to a very brief period at
the onset in the morning. It should then change to all rain
before midday Sunday. We will have chance PoPs area-wide Saturday
night based on the previous solutions, but the emphasis is Sunday
morning over west Kentucky when likely PoPs are forecast for a
rain/snow mix, becoming all rain in the afternoon.

Between the systems it will be abnormally cold. Highs will
struggle to reach the freezing mark anywhere in the area Thursday
and Friday, and Thursday night will see readings deep into the
teens. Wind chills we be at their worst late Thursday night into
Friday, when single digits above zero are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Expect MVFR/IFR vsbys and IFR cigs light rain and drizzle to
continue through early afternoon as a result of light rain and
drizzle. Conditions will begin to improve W to E in early evening
to MVFR cigs/VFR vsbys but could see gusty winds this evening. Was
optimistic with evening cigs, which may not rise above 2kft
overnight. Most models anticipate prevailing fog and LIFR
conditions from at least 09-13Z with low level moisture trapped
under high pressure and light winds. Should clear out mid morning
Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BP2
LONG TERM...DRS



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