Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200859
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

As of 2 AM, the northward extent of the low clouds is located across
portions of west KY into the bootheel of Missouri. The progression
northward will slowly continue into the early morning hours, with
forward speed expected to increase through the day. Winds just
off the surface are howling pretty good currently, with some gusts
of 15-20 mph even making it down to the surface. Due to the
southerly fetch of air, temperatures are quite a bit warmer
tonight, held up in the 30s in most locations. In western
Kentucky, where the low clouds have pushed in, readings are in the
40s.

A 500mb low currently spinning over Louisiana will pivot eastward
and is expected to be in the north Florida/southern Georgia vicinity
by Sunday morning. At the same time, low level moisture to our south
will quickly spread northward through the day today. Most of the
short term guidance is depicting some light rain or drizzle possible
by late in the afternoon and continuing into the evening and
overnight hours. Some hints at fog development is also depicted,
although it is possible that it ends up being just low clouds.
However, went ahead and mentioned patchy fog potential for this
evening into Sunday morning. Given the rising dewpoints (32+)
spreading over the existing snowpack and wet ground, it is a legit
possibility. As far as QPF amounts go, they will remain light
through Sunday evening, generally only amounting to one or two
hundredths of an inch.

Our main system of interest has continued to slow down just a wee
bit, with the brunt of the precipitation expected after midnight
Sunday night into Monday morning. Some rain will still be possible
in the eastern half of the area on Monday afternoon. Shear continues
to look impressive, as is typical in the cool season. However,
instability is still rather meager, especially any surface based.
Models continue to hint at some elevated instability being present,
with showalters of 0 to -2. So slight chance of thunder continues to
exist mainly over the western two thirds of the region Sunday night.
QPF amounts remain consistent with previous forecast, generally in
the 0.4" to 0.8" range, with some localized higher amounts possible.

On the backside of the system, winds look to crank up and become
rather gusty Monday afternoon into the evening hours. Some gusts
up to 30 mph or a bit higher are anticipated. Decided to up the
winds from the initialized blend per collaboration with
surrounding offices.

Temperatures will continue to rebound upward with 40s today being
replaced by 50s on Sunday and Monday. The existing snow pack will
melt away, which combined with the cold ground, and the upcoming
rain event, will result in some rises on area creeks and rivers as
well as some flooding in low lying areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

High pressure will be building over the central U.S. Tuesday into
Tuesday night, sliding southeast of the PAH forecast area by early
Thursday.  This will shift winds to the south across our region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be moderating to
near seasonal by mid week, but the shift to southerly flow will
result in a little more significant warm up for the end of the work
week, to around 10 degrees above seasonal normals.  With dry air in
place, we can expect mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights
through Thursday night.

With the south winds will come an increase in moisture, and we
should see clouds begin to increase through the day Friday.  Models
indicate slower progression of our next weather system, and now hold
off on any warm convection showers ahead of it until just beyond the
current forecast period.  For now we will go dry on Friday and
continue to watch the timing in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

A bank of low clouds continued to hover across Tennessee and the
southern border counties of west KY as of 05z. These clouds were
generally based just above 3k feet agl. A gradual northward
progression of low level moisture will occur through Saturday. Cigs
are likely to be in the mvfr category most of the day Saturday. Some
further lowering of cigs is possible Sat night, mainly northwest of
the Ohio River. A mention of ifr cigs will begin at kcgi Sat
evening.

Winds aloft will remain strong from the southwest, especially early
this morning. A mention of low level wind shear will continue.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



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