Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251605
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1005 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Updated the Aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 233 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Low clouds are making steady eastward progress, and should
continue and allow for a return of sunshine this Christmas day.
Heights rebound as well, and with southerlies kicking in, it will
be a mild Christmas day as well, with temperatures warming toward
the 50 degree mark.

Broad surface high pressure anchors across the Southeast Friday,
and the return flow around it draws Gulf moisture up the
Mississippi river valley. By Friday night, the result will be
a return of Pops to the forecast for us. The blayer will be warm
enough, with temps in the 40s even at night.

Pops expand/increase Saturday as a cold front approaches and makes
passage. As it does, low pressure develops along the southern end
of the boundary, on the Gulf coast, and lifts northeast across the
Tn valley Saturday night. This will help overrunning moisture
continue rain chances (post frontal) into Saturday night, esp
across our southeastern counties. Even so, blayer temps are still
plenty warm enough for entirely liquid pcpn. And marginal blayer
temps in our farthest northern/western counties encounter
insufficient moisture there, to support any Pops/chance of frozen
pcpn.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under swrly flow aloft at the
beginning of the extended forecast period, with some PoPs existing
Sun due to a departing frontal system. The primary pcpn type
appeared to be rain at this time for Sun. However, after midnight
Sun night, thermal profiles suggest either lack of ice nucleation
(ECMWF), or ice nucleation with varying amounts of above-freezing
air in the lower levels. This may generate a wintry mix of pcpn,
with all types possible. This pcpn may linger after sunrise Mon.
Little QPF is expected with this system.

A temporary resurgence of pcpn is possible across mainly the sern
half of the region during the day Mon as a low pressure system moves
across the Gulf states, according to some models such as the
GFS/GEM. However, by Mon afternoon pcpn should be all liquid as sfc
temps will be above freezing.

For the rest of the extended forecast, the trend appears to be drier
as sfc winds will remain out of the north, and flow aloft becomes
increasingly zonal and eventually slightly anticyclonic by midweek
ahead of a developing mid/upper level low in the swrn CONUS. A
reinforcing shot of arctic air should enter the PAH forecast area by
Wed, resulting in dewpoint figures in the teens and highs only in
the 30s for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1005 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Axis of strato-cu east of a KHNB-KHOP line moving east. CU rules
off the models suggest additional development possible, but very
limited coverage mainly east of the Mississippi through the
afternoon. Otherwise just some high clouds with a steady south
wind 5-10 kts, maybe a few gusts 10-20kts until sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







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