Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 242332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Confidence is increasing that many areas are going to get rained
on tomorrow, especially locations along and east of the MS River.

Clipper system that a couple days ago was progged to travel
southeast through the western Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio
Valley has now constantly trended farther west in subsequent model
runs. It now appears there is decent agreement that the low will
track se much farther sw through the Evansville Tri State region
Sunday. This means we will need to continue to raise POPs with
this forecast package. Good news is that thermal profiles suggest
mainly rain with this system. Amounts should not be heavy, but
thinking is that a good portion of the region could pick up a good
quarter inch or so of rainfall. Enough cold air may work in on the
back side of the low Sunday evening to turn any leftover precip
to light snow or flurries, but not expecting any travel impacts
at this time.

High pressure will make a short visit on Monday, before another
cold front sweeps through and brings colder conditions in for Tue.
No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Model agreement through Friday is very good, which lends to higher
than average forecast confidence. Confidence begins to drop next
weekend with greater variance in model solutions.

All in all, the extended period will be largely status-quo as a
northwesterly upper level flow pattern persists. However, a couple
of perturbations in this flow pattern will yield increasing sky
cover along with the potential for light precipitation through the
period.

But starting with Wednesday, the flow pattern should modify briefly
as a weak ridge builds into the region ahead of a shortwave trough
approaching from the Central Plains. Southerly low level flow and
ample sunshine will assist temperatures towards the 50 degree mark
by afternoon. Even though the bulk of the precipitation should
remain to our northeast, the passage of the primary wave will yield
a small chance for light rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter
weather does not appear to be a factor with temperatures well above
the freezing mark.

Any lingering precipitation will come to an end late Thursday as the
weather system departs. High pressure of Pacific origins will build
into the region on Friday. As a result, temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees cooler on Friday, but still close to seasonal norms.

The next weather system will impact the region over the weekend as
another chunk of Arctic high pressure dives south from Canada.
Models disagree on how this scenario unfolds. The GFS is certainly
the wettest of the operational models as it indicates more influence
from the subtropical jet and a flatter flow pattern aloft. In
contrast, the ECMWF suite and GFS ensemble mean indicate more
influence from the polar jet and suggest any precipitation with the
initial Arctic surge will be light and short-lived. We tend to favor
this scenario at this time, and will carry only a slight chance of
rain or snow on Saturday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

High clouds will increase from the NW this evening, with a lower
MVFR deck arriving after sunrise Sun as a low pressure system
approaches from the nw. A low pressure system may have enough
intensity
to bring vsbys down to IFR levels in rain upon onset, then vsbys may
rebound to MVFR levels as the sfc low passes practically overhead.
In most cases, winds will veer from srly/swrly to more wrly during
the day Sun, especially in the west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DB







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