Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010703

203 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MCS dropping down across MO will spread its clouds into/across PAH
FA this morning. It will also lay out some boundaries, the primary
one of which lays out across our northern tier this afternoon,
where we`ll have a slgt/small chance mentionable Pop.

As the mean energy in the long wave moves across the MS and Wabash
river valleys tonight and Tuesday, it will drag this primary
boundary into the heart of the FA and result in an uptick in Pops
to likely cat or better, particularly during the day Tuesday. This
has been a consistent model signal and looks a good bet with fropa
thru much of the area by 00Z Wed.

The front/boundary hangs up across our southern tier or just to
the south Tue night, and returns as a warm sector boundary late
Tue night and Wed. This is indicated by several model members so we
adjusted Pops accordingly.

Temps look to remain summerlike at or just above climo norms from
the mid/upr 80s to near 90 for highs, and generally in the
u60s/lower 70s for lows, with continued muggy dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Wednesday morning, whatever is left of the frontal boundary that
went through the area the night before, will be situated somewhere
over our southern counties. The front will be lifting back north as
a warm front and this is seen most evidently in the theta e fields.
This rebounding front along with minor perturbations in the zonal
flow aloft will likely lead to some convection, especially given the
decent mid level lapse rates, sfc instability parameters and deep
moisture. The upper wave will move off to the east Wednesday night
and things should be fairly quiet except for some possible lingering
afternoon convection.

On Thursday, the upper ridge really begins building over the region
and become centered over us by the end of the day. This should help
boost temperatures up a degree or two into the lower 90s. We should
not see widespread chances for storms though on Thursday, but it
appears as though a small chance will remain, with the best chances
in the east where the better moisture will be confined. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will be progressing eastward across the upper
Midwest down into the Central Plains. This front will be slow to
move and models have not been handling its speed very well. Toddy`s
runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a faster progression and have the
front into the area by Friday or Friday night. The best moisture and
QPF is behind the actual front so precipitation chances ramp up by
Friday night into Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, models were having a rough time resolving how
quickly the moisture gets shoved out of the area and this is due to
the differences in the strength and progression of the sfc high
originating from the north central plains states. But the 12Z model
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have finally aligned well and believe that
Sunday (and even Saturday night) should be dry now. In fact, much
drier and cooler air settling in with highs probably in the 70s on


Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will monitor tonight for any possible developing restrictions to
vsbys pre dawn. Cigs develop as MCS moves this way, restrictions
to MVFR possible at times, but believe will generally stay VFR.
Anticipate increasing gradient/winds during the day ahead of
approaching boundary. Pops enter forecast tonight but refrain from
terminal mention at this writing.



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