Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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936
FXUS63 KPAH 120214
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
814 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

See Aviation section for updated discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

The primary forecast challenge is the placement of the axis of max
qpf tonight, with the incoming snow band. The model trend is a
shift of the primary axis to the south and west. However, the
models still vary greatly, and many paint two swaths, one north of
the other. It is too uncertain to pinpoint, but fortunately, with
qpf amounts generally less than .05", we are talking about less
than an inch for most even with robust LSR (avg 16 to 1).
Probably around a half inch or so in the heaviest swath with
lesser amounts to one quarter inch elsewhere. In other words, very
similar to the previous night in the PAH vicinity, but this time,
a little further north and east.

Model timing confidence is good with pcpn onset after 06Z, best
accumulating period 09z-13/14z, tapering off/ending by 16-17z. We
have issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the northeast
half of the region or so, for potential morning commute issues for
untreated road or walk surfaces. Once the event is ongoing after
midnight tonight, a better read on model qpf and location can be
determined for any particular counties that might need a higher
impact statement (Advisory).

This system`s passage will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air
that will last/really kick in as we head into the weekend...with
Saturday highs largely in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

The largest discrepancy among the models would be the available
moisture. The 00z thu ecmwf still seems to be the outlier with the
most precipitation. The GFS...Canadian and NAM are in a little
better agreement. Also the extended init cut back snow/qpf a
little more than yesterday. Now it`s yielding from around an inch
in the southern Ozarks up to two and half for the Evansville tri-
state area. Otherwise the timing is in fairly good agreement. The
forecast sounding shows the best available moisture may be a
little earlier than what the pops would indicate. The sounding
shows the best moisture Sunday afternoon and evening...while the
pops are higher overnight Sunday. Bufkit would even suggest a dry
period between 6z and 12z Monday. Bufkit and forecast soundings
also indicate changing over to all rain after 12z Monday
especially south may be a mixture along the Interstate 64 corridor
at least in the morning. There may be a lingering chance of snow
Monday night east of the Mississippi River. There is a ripple in
the strong northwest flow aloft Wednesday that the models are
starting to pick up on but should be a light event and most areas
will be well above freezing at that time.

Now for the good news...after a frigid weekend we will begin a
warming trend. Temperatures should be getting back to near normal
starting Tuesday and possibly above normal by the end of the week.
That would place highs around 50 and lows around 30 for most
areas. A little cooler along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 813 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

It appears from surface observations and satellite imagery are
leaning closer the the high resolution NAM-WRF family of guidance
at this time. Ceilings at KCGI have already dropped to 110-120kft
AGL, some three hours ahead of schedule. The NAM-WRF (12km) and
the NAM-WRF (NMM version) seem to be doing a much better job of
depicting the transition and development of lower ceilings.

Will need to assess the potential of flipping the lower ceilings
and visibilities from KEVV and KOWB (as depicted by the HRRR
guidance) to KCGI and KPAH. Will monitor and do some internal
coordination before considering any change prior to the 06z
issuance. The Canadian guidance was the only model yesterday
evening that had the moisture developing further south.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith



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