Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 192023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
323 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Scattered showers and storms have built northward into west
Kentucky in the last few hours, but all indications are that this
activity will move east and dissipate by sunset, leaving the
entire area dry for most of the evening. In the meantime, we
cannot rule out a stray strong to severe storm, but given the
number of updrafts competing for the available instability and
relatively weak wind fields over the region, organized severe
weather is not expected.

The most recent HRRR output still tries to bring an MCS into at
least southeast Missouri and southern Illinois after 09Z and into
Saturday morning. It appears that the severe potential with this
system will be to our north. With south southwesterly flow through
the column, any significant winds would be associated with
northwest to southeast oriented portions of the line. However,
heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially where the leading line
orients itself parallel to the upper flow.

The models are in reasonably good agreement in dragging the cold
front through our region late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The convective potential should drop off quickly with the frontal
passage, but we maintain small PoPs through the day Sunday. After
the MCS tonight into Saturday morning, the convective evolution is
unclear. The primary upper-level system will be well north of the
area and we will not have the synoptic cold front in play yet.
Best bet is that we will see scattered development through the
day, especially near any outflow boundaries that remain in play.

Not terribly concerned with severe weather, but given the
potential surface airmass that may develop, especially south of
any outflows, a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out.
Once again, with anomalously high moisture content, locally heavy
rainfall will be the biggest concern. At this time, it is not
obvious which areas may be hardest hit with multiple rounds of
heavy rain tonight through Saturday night so will not be issuing a
Flash Flood Watch.

Still looking much more pleasant behind the front Sunday and
Sunday night with temperatures a bit below normal on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

We will have sfc high pressure in our vicinity on Monday but that
system will shift east through the day. Another frontal boundary
will be incoming from the west. Various models as well as the GFS
ensembles seem to have a pretty decent handle on the timing, and
this was the case yesterday as well. We should see dry weather
through the evening hours on Monday, but after midnight Monday night
and into Tuesday, precipitation chances increase. How quickly the
front makes it through Tuesday into Tuesday evening is still a bit
in question.

However, there will be a break in the action after the frontal
passage Tuesday evening or late Tuesday night. The upper level
trough/low will move across the area on Wednesday. This will mean
more clouds, more chances for showers and a downright cool day with
highs only in the 60s. Models have their differences on how quickly
this upper system departs on Wednesday night. May have to linger
some POPs in that period...higher POPs east. We could have a chance
to see lows in the upper 40s in some areas Wednesday night.

We will see improving conditions on Thursday, as well as an increase
in our temperatures and more sunshine as sfc high pressure builds
back into the region. The upper flow transitions to a more
flat/zonal flow by Friday with no large signals for any major
chances for rain.


Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This is a convectively driven forecast. The TS near KCGI will
move east by 18Z, but there may be some isolated development near
KEVV and KOWB late this afternoon through sunset. Much of the
evening should be dry throughout the area, but the TS chances
increase overnight into Saturday morning. It appears that we will
most likely see an MCS move northeast through all or a portion of
the area 09Z-15Z, but there could be development ahead of it as
well, beginning as early as 03Z. Emphasized the early morning MCS
potential with a wind shift and VCTS at all sites except KOWB.
Kept it VFR for now, but IFR or lower conditions will be possible
if the MCS develops.

Southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon in the northeast,
but should calm down significantly by sunset and winds throughout
the area should back to the southeast for most of the night.
Winds Saturday morning will likely be muddled by thunderstorm




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