Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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463
FXUS63 KPAH 170831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY QUITE A BIT ON TIMING OF BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY, AND EVEN HAVE SOME
DIFFICULTY ON TIMING OF ONGOING PRECIP IN WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS MORNING. WENT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING, THEN
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT SLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY, WHICH WILL NOW TAKE UNTIL AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TO MOVE
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PAH FA. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST TO LIKELY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO GOOD CHANCE SOUTH INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHES ON THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO FOR TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING AROUND 13 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TODAY. THOUGH THIS IS BORDERLINE CRITERIA,
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL
READINGS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASING SOMEWHAT IN THE LONG TERM AS LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGINNING TO DIVERGE A BIT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIPPLES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE TAPPING INTO DECENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PRODUCE
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM THE NORTH AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY THE GFS TRIES
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. DURING THE SAME PERIOD THE ECMWF SHOWS MINOR RIDGING ALOFT
WHILE STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEREBY KEEPING OUR
AREA DRY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AS A SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE BY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND
BARELY BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD READINGS MAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD KCGI AT THIS
TIME...AND FIGURE THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 50KTS OF SSW WINDS AT 925MB ON THE KPAH 88-D VWP CERTAINLY
IS WORTHY OF A MENTION OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE
GUSTS AT KCGI...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT THERE.

CONVECTION MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL PLANNING ON A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL THAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY TAIL END OF PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS PLAINS CONVECTION. PUSHED
IT BACK AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AT KEVV AND KOWB.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MIXING
LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS 20-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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