Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131214

714 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

Issued at 708 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

For aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Models in good agreement in the short term. Short wave energy should
move east of the region during the morning hours, and serve to
scour clouds/moisture out of the region from nw to se. Still will
have north winds though, so will remain well below normal despite
the return to sunshine this afternoon. Chilliest night will
likely come tonight with clear and calm conditions. Most locations
will drop down well into the 40s, just shy of record lows. As the
high shifts a bit farther east Sunday, will see the beginning of a
modest warm up. Should see a good 30 degree warm up from AM lows
Sunday into the 70s. Very pleasant afternoons can be expected this

Another weak cold front will move se toward the region by Monday
night. Warming trend will continue ahead of this front Monday
afternoon, with highs in the upper half of the 70s to near 80.
Weak cold front will then slip se through the region Monday night.
Very little low lvl convergence and mid lvl support associated
with the front and even return moisture looks weak at best. Thus,
will go no higher that slight chc of showers at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Cool and dry weather will continue through the long term as the
eastern trough/western ridge pattern persists.

Surface high pressure will slowly move east from the Missouri Valley
on Tuesday...across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and
the northern Appalachians on Friday. This high will funnel cool and
dry air across our region on north to northeast low level winds.

About the only forecast concern is the potential for some low
cloudiness Tuesday through Wednesday. GFS model soundings indicate
residual low level moisture around 850 mb behind the leading edge of
cooler air. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the extent and
duration of this cloudiness...which cannot be precisely determined
this far out. Will shave several degrees off gfs/ecmwf mos guidance
for highs Tuesday based on the expectation of considerable low
clouds. Mos may still be a few degrees too warm on Wednesday. Beyond
that...guidance is in close agreement and looks reasonable. A rather
tight pressure gradient and some clouds should keep overnight lows
near guidance values through the period. Forecast lows will be in
the lower to mid 50s...and forecast highs will be in the 70s through
the long term.


Issued at 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

With moisture still trapped below the inversion, IFR/MVFR cigs will
continue through 14-16Z, then skies should clear as short wave
energy moves off east of the region. Northerly winds 10-15 knots with
higher gusts today will settle down toward sunset.




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