Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191144
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

An upper-level trough will push to our east today while weak
surface high pressure builds into our region. Northwest winds will
mix down by midday and that will allow dewpoints to mix down well
into the 50s. The surface high will settle over the southern half
of the area this evening, allowing weak south winds to return.
Despite the south winds, the dry surface high to our south will
prevent any return of moisture to the region. Dewpoints through
Wednesday will slowly modify only due to transpiration and
evaporation.

An upper-level impulse will dive southeast from the Upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. The consensus of the 00Z
models indicates that any surface reflection with this impulse
will be weak, and should remain well to the north and northeast
of our region. The lone exception is the NAM which brings the
front and convection southward about half way through our region
before stalling it out Wednesday morning and then lifting it back
to the north by evening. Will stay with the consensus and keep
PoPs dry and winds from the south throughout the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

With dry air in place and plenty of sunshine forecast, went to the
warm side of guidance for highs through Wednesday. Also leaned to
the cool side for lows through the period. Dry air and clear skies
usually results in a wide diurnal range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A couple of challenging systems in the long term are making for less
than desirable confidence.

The first item of concern is the remnants of the tropical system in
the Gulf. After entering the lower Mississippi river valley/western
Gulf coast states midweek, the remnants of this system will head
north northeast toward our region. Models have had differing
opinions on both how fast this occurs and what areas of our CWA may
be impacted.

We will see an increase in moisture/clouds on Thursday but the
prospects for rain look a bit weak right now. By Thursday night, the
GFS/ECMWF solutions indicate the bulk of the deeper moisture will be
shunted to our east/southeast. The Canadian model continues to show
a good slug of moisture impacting at least the eastern half of the
area Thursday night. The GFS ensembles hint that parts of western KY
and southwest IN may see some QPF before all is said and done from
this tropical system, mainly Thursday afternoon and night.

So while we have that system to deal with, another system - a
frontal boundary - will be advancing from the north as well. This
front will sag south through the day on Friday and should bring the
area a decent chance for more convection. Due to upper level
differences between the models, the timing of how long to linger
POPs over the weekend is still in question. The GFS is much faster
in exiting the precipitation and has it moving out late Saturday
night into Sunday. However, the 12Z/00Z ECMWF indicate that the
front will stall out and a sfc low develops along the front on
Saturday night, which prolongs the progression of the front until
Sunday afternoon.

Temps will be warm at the beginning of the period and then we should
see it cool down a bit over the weekend with plenty of clouds and
rain chances. We should then drop a few more degrees behind the
front for early next week with more comfortable humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A few isolated locations have developed IFR or lower fog this
morning, but only KOWB of the TAF sites has any fog and it is
MVFR. The fog should dissipate quickly in the next hour. Northwest
winds will mix down by midday over the entire area. Some gusts
into the teens can be expected over the northeast half of the
region. Winds will become calm around sunset and stay that way
all night. The latest guidance is generating some clouds in the
6-9kft layer and ceilings are a decent possibility. A few light
showers cannot be ruled out this evening mainly east of the
Missisippi River.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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