Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 262325 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The PAH forecast area will remain under weakening nwrly/nrly flow
aloft through Thu, continuing the autumn-like conditions. The
boundary layer will continue to modify, resulting in a minor uptick
in temps and dewpoints. Fewer clouds east of the MS River will be
seen Thu afternoon than today.

As a sfc ridge of high pressure in our area begins to move off to
the east Thu night, the models indicate mid level heights over us
will build ahead of a shrtwv that is progged to develop in the nrn
Plains. Meanwhile, 850 mb winds will begin to veer to the south,
helping to further increase temps and deepen lower trop moisture
through Fri night. Thus, Fri and Fri night will be noticeably
warmer. At this time, any pcpn generated by the aforementioned
shrtwv as it enters the central Plains should stay to our nw
through 12Z Sat, though there should be some increase in cloud
cover from the nw.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The upper-level storm system that has long been advertised to
impact our region this weekend is still on track. The main question
is whether it will get cut off from the flow over our region and
remain with us well into next week, as the 06Z GFS advertised, or
will it be more progressive, as the 00Z ECMWF advertised?

The 12Z GFS finds some middle ground and lingers it overhead through
Monday and then drifts it to our southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
Then the GFS actually pulls the remnants of T.S. Erika northwest
into our region by next Thursday night, as it interacts with our
leftover trough and the dominant ridge centered north of the region.
Not sure I would count on Erika making it up here, but it is
something to keep an eye on. The 12Z ECMWF is similar with the upper
system, but much drier and keeps the tropical remnants over the
Atlantic.

Will likely have some slight chance PoPs over much of the region
Saturday through Sunday, as the GFS has trended wetter with the
upper-low overhead. Could probably extend the small PoPs through
Monday night based solely on the GFS, but will try to take an
incremental approach to the spread of PoPs through the extended
forecast.

Temperatures will generally be a few degrees above normal through
the period with very light winds at the surface, and through the
column for that matter. Dewpoints will remain in check, so heat
indices should not approach triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will make for
benign flying conditions, at least for the most part. With the
exception of possible IFR/MVFR fog at KCGI/KPAH between 09-13Z,
conditions will remain VFR at all sites through the period. Winds
will either be calm or light and variable through 15Z, then light
out of the northeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP



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