Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191139 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
639 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Surface high pressure centered over our CWA early this morning will
begin to slide off to the east today.

Late tonight into Monday morning an upper level disturbance will
push a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley. With the Gulf
being cut off, moisture will be limited therefore precipitation
chances will be minimal. Models not in the best agreement on whether
any rain will fall across our CWA with the frontal passage. The
NAM12 continues to indicate a dry frontal passage with the remainder
of the models showing a variety of light precipitation scenarios
over all or part of our CWA. The outcome remains to be seen, but if
anything falls, the best chances should be over the northeast third
of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher. With so much
uncertainty, kept POPS at a minimum Monday morning. Any
precipitation chances should be south and east of our CWA by Monday
afternoon.

In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Through Thursday surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should
continue to keep the region dry with slightly below normal
temperatures.

Beyond that is where long term models diverge a bit. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show a sharp H5 short wave tracking east southeast across
the western half of the country toward our region. In the process
the ridging over our area gets suppressed somewhat, and with time
both models show the short wave deepening, becoming a closed low,
and moving it southward thereby pinching it off from the main flow
as ridging builds in behind it.

By 12Z Friday the GFS has the low centered over central Arkansas and
the ECMWF has it centered over the Texas/Louisiana border. The GFS
solution generates light QPF over our far western counties Thursday
night and Friday whereas the ECMWF solution keeps all precipitation
chances south and west of our area. Will continue to go with the
Superblend solution which keeps our area dry, at least for the time
being.

Temperatures in the long term will slowly warm to near normal by the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

High pressure will be the dominant weather factor through the
period. Consequently, other than IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at
KCGI/KPAH early this morning and Monday morning, VFR conditions
should prevail at all sites through the period. Winds will be
either calm or light out of the south to south southwest through
the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WX/AVIATION...JP





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