Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250540
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Fast northwest flow continues along the west side of the upper
trough centered over the upper Great Lakes. The gradient flow will
persist through at least 06z Thursday before relaxing at bit. Mean
RH and lift associated with the movement of this air may bring
scattered to locally broken cloud cover intermittently to Southwest
Indiana, Southeast Illinois, and Northwest Kentucky.

Ridging aloft from the southwest does not take place until around
06z Thursday, gradually increasing thicknesses with time.

Prior to that time, moderate to weak cold air advection will keep
temperatures below normal.

Given the lack of significant systems and moisture, dry conditions
will be the rule through the short term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Upper trof still forecast to move SE and into the area over the
weekend. Ahead of it, will leave it dry Friday/Friday night. We will
keep the slight chance of convection Saturday as weak lift and
daytime heating may be enough to spark some activity. Cannot rule
out isolated activity Saturday night through Monday. But given the
weak lift and marginal moisture overall, potential capping, left it
dry for now. Overall, a blend of the GFS/ECMWF was used. Max/MinT`s
were a blend of existing numbers and MOS. We stayed a tad above MOS
at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 507 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Surface High Pressure works across the Mississippi Valley during
the forecast period...providing a light northwesterly flow regime
that`s largely diurnally driven. Skies will be moclear but there
may be enough bouyancy north and east to scatter high based cu
decks tmrw pm around 6K FT AGL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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