Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 020644

144 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The upper low over the Tn valley will continue its dive southward
with Joaquin advances toward the East Coast. The surface
gradient will respond by tightening between high pressure over
Eastern Canada and low pressure over the southeast U.S. This will
keep a fetch of nice cool n-nelys across the lower Ohio river
valley. Winds may be gusty at times during the pm hours, when the
PGF is maxed.

Radar mosaic shows Pops closeby, just to the southeast of the FA.
Until the Tn Valley Low gets sufficiently far enough south/east,
the bulk columnar moisture over the Eastern Seaboard states will
continue to be pulled back westward, and into the Commonwealth.
This will result in a continuation of Pops for us. Mid to High
chance cat pops for our eastern counties will taper to slgts and
less as you go westward thru our CWA. This will include into at
least the first half of the weekend (Saturday). It still looks
like drier air will work into the region Sunday, as high pressure
aloft ridges in from the west, and Joaquin appears to make a more
northward/eastward track each successive run. We`ll have to watch
that closely for any weekend changes should it move further

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

The medium-range models are in good agreement from Sunday through
the first half of next week, but really diverge by next Thursday.
Overall confidence is pretty high. In general, we can expect dry and
rather mild conditions well into next week.

High pressure aloft will build over the region Sunday, as the
influence of the pesky upper-low finally pushes east of the region.
We did leave in a slight chance in the east Sunday to give the low a
wide berth and blend in with our neighboring forecast offices.

High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft to
begin the week. This will result in a warming trend to near normal
levels by Monday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday, and possibly
into Thursday.

The 12Z ECMWF and GFS agree in bringing an upper-level storm system
eastward into the Rockies by the end of the day Wednesday. The
problem is that it is caught within a progressive split flow. The
GFS has been consistently pushing this system eastward into our area
Wednesday night and Thursday, while the ECMWF has been slower to
move it out of the Rockies. The 12Z ECMWF has trended farther south
with the system and now has it over northern Mexico Thursday evening
with continued ridging over our region.

This is not a high confidence scenario, and neither solution can be
ruled out at this time. We will keep a slight chance of showers over
the west Wednesday night and over the entire region Thursday given
the GFS`s consistency, but significant adjustments may ultimately be
necessary. Even if the GFS is close, it does not look like a major
cool down for the end of next week.


Issued at 131 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Low VFR to at times MVFR cigs are closeby, just to our east, and
already (still) impact KEVV/KOWB flight terminals. This will
continue thru early morning. But then, we`ll see PM stratocu
develop again, straddling the MVFR/VFR cat, including cigs at
times (most prominent east). Showers too may develop/become
scattered in the east, where the better moisture resides. We may
have to include vicinity mention to hit upon this, at least in our
eastern most terminal (KOWB). Chances drop the further west you go
away from the bulk moisture. N-NElys continue and will include
diurnal gusts, not unlike yesterday.




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