National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KPAH 140009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

DRIER COOLER AIR CONTINUED TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE FA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WAS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
TENNESSEE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. BAND OF CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH AS WELL. SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS MOVE ON OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING PAVING THE WAY FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND
JUST WEST OF THERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. SEVERAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS POSSIBILITY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH 1/2. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF EXISTING
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
AMBIGUOUS WITH POP/WEATHER SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK /MAINLY
TUESDAY/...BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
AND 00Z THURSDAY ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN FOR THE PLACEMENT OF
POPS/WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
AROUND THE NORTHERN LIMB THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE AXIS. THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM A LESS THAN STELLAR RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED TO LOW
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW.

KEPT THE TREND OF LOWERING/DROPPING MEASURABLE POPS/WEATHER OVER THE
WFO PAH FORECAST LATER NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME
PERIOD SUGGESTS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
RAIN. THIS COMPLIMENTS THE TREND STARTED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT.

LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SOME IN THE WETTEST PART OF THE
FORECAST...AS EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THE DIURNAL
RANGE FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

UNDER HIGH SFC PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE NRLY/NERLY AND BELOW 10 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT UNLIMITED VSBYS/CIGS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL....NONE.
MO....NONE.
IN....NONE.
KY....NONE.

&&

$$