Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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094
FXUS63 KPAH 300502
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1202 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

An unsettled period is still forecast. An upper low will move out
of the central Rockies into the central Plains tonight. A warm
front extending ESE from low pressure over KS will lift north
toward the area tonight, continuing north through the area
Saturday. After an evening lull in convective activity as the
first round of showers/storms departs, expect an increase in
chances again overnight as the next wave moves toward the area.
Late night / early Saturday morning PoPs peaking at categorical,
should taper off by Saturday afternoon. Will continue with chance
to likely PoPs Saturday night with a surface front moving into the
area by 12z Sunday. Drier air starts to work in from the west
Sunday, so lower PoPs with time from west to east, best chances
Sunday west KY into southwest IN. Convective chances ending Sunday
night. Could be a few strong possibly severe storms this weekend.
Used a blend of the EC/GFS/NAM once again to level off each models
detail. Temps continue to be a blend of MOS and existing forecast
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models remain in some disagreement on some potential precipitation
chances early next week. GFS and Canadian show an upper level trof
moving across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Tuesday,
while the ECMWF is about 24 hours slower with this feature.  Models
generate some light scattered QPF ahead of this trof, and despite
its slower solution, the latest ECMWF does somewhat agree with the
GFS that the best potential for some showers would be Monday night
into Tuesday.  Included just some small chances for this time period
in our south/southeast counties where some better moisture would be
available. Our far eastern counties could see a few showers
Wednesday as the trof moves through combined with some daytime
heating, so included some slight chances for showers.  Overall
confidence is pretty low for these precipitation chances, but with
whatever does occur, so far it looks like amounts would be
insignificant.

Confidence remain pretty low late in the week as the GFS swings a
cold front and some precipitation into the region by Friday, while
the ECMWF keeps any precip east of our region and builds high
pressure into the area. Opted to keep the rest of the extended dry
for now, and we will keep looking for the models to latch on to a
more coordinated solution.

Numerical guidance indicates temperatures will be fairly seasonal
for the new work week, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s,
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A large area of showers and most likely some embedded TS will move
northeast into the area overnight and will reach the northeast
TAFs by daybreak. A 4-6 hour window of MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions can be expected. Tried to time out the best period for
TS at all sites. Winds will be veering through midday and will end
up due south by midday as a warm front lifts to our north. Some
gustiness will be possible, but generally at or below 20kts.

Biggest uncertainty is in SHRA/TSRA development in the late
afternoon and evening. Plenty of instability should be available
if there is some focus for development. Thought a PROB30 for TS
was warranted, but this should be more scattered activity and the
impact will only be for an hour or so at any location.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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