Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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