Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251727

1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Dry and warmer today through Monday. A weak front will pass
through today, with some lower and high clouds, that will depart
by midday, especially east sections. Weak high pressure will
move across the area tonight and Sunday in the wake of the front,
followed by return southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system
to our NW and N Monday. Monday night, after midnight, the models
depict a chance of showers, maybe isolated thunder entering into
the NW 1/2 of the area. The GFS is faster, and the fastest of the
models now. The NAM and ECMWF are not as quick. Used a blend
approach, though slightly quicker seems to be the trend in all of
the models.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

The main weather concern in the long term is the chance for showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A
strong storm system currently off the Pacific Northwest coast will
shift east into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Tuesday. The approach of an
attendant cold front will bring the likelihood of showers on
Tuesday. Forecast models are in generally good agreement with the
timing and dynamics of this system, though the 00Z GFS is a bit
faster than the GEM or ECMWF. Marginal instability will lend to the
potential for a few thunderstorms during this time, but severe
weather is not anticipated. Lingering precipitation is forecast to
clear the area from northwest to southeast Tuesday night in the wake
of the passing cold front.

A transition to seasonably cool weather will take place on Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Plains. Plenty of sunshine is
expected on Wednesday, but clouds will be on the increase Thursday
as a weak weather disturbance dives southeast from the Northern
Plains. Models disagree on precipitation potential with this
feature, but the system appears strong enough to at least warrant a
slight chance shower mention on Thursday.

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern is forecast to set up
late in the week. This is where models diverge substantially. For
instance, the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF treat us to cool and dry
Halloween weather with an upper level ridge positioned just to our
west and high pressure in control. Meanwhile, the new 00Z ECMWF has
a trick up its sleeve for a wet Halloween as a strong cut off low
develops over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. At this
time, our forecast reflects the first scenario, but low confidence
prevents us from completely ruling out the wet scenario at this
time. In either case, much cooler air should arrive just in time to
kick off November.


Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A weak cold front is trying to push through the region this
afternoon. It is forecast to stall out just south of the area
tonight, and then come back as a warm front Sunday. The front will
bring some drier air into KEVV and KOWB this afternoon. This
should prevent significant fog formation late tonight, despite
clear and nearly calm conditions.

Low-level moisture will likely remain over KCGI and KPAH through
the period. Would not be surprised to see MVFR or even IFR
ceilings develop tonight, but guidance is strongly indicating IFR
or lower fog formation at both sites. Bottom line is that impacts
are likely at both locations tonight into early Sunday.




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