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000
FXUS63 KPAH 102326
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Temperatures starting to rise above 32F for the southern part of
the FA at least this pm, along with full sunshine, a good day for
melting and hopefully/presumably along with it, road improvements.

Another cold night tonight as High pressure translates eastward
across the TN valley, with current td`s in the teens prob close to
our overnight mins. Could see some patches of freezing fog in
preferred locales again.

We warm up tomorrow, ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold air, to
high temps in the upper 30s/near 40 across our south. The front
makes entry into nrn ptns of the region by midday, so highs there
may be stopped at/near the freezing mark. There shouldnt be too
much cloudiness with it, although some increase in model
time/height cross sections does reveal it. Along with some gusty
winds, it should still be another day of melting facilitation,
particularly across the southern half of the region.

The reinforced arctic shot is a good one, with a 1040mb High
sinking south over MO and ushering much colder, and drier air down
the middle MS valley and over top us. Look for td`s to drop to zero
or even negative numbers along our northern border, with single
digits commonplace, and low temps to approach those numbers Wed
night. With such a cold start Thursday morning, we`ll be hard
pressed to make a 30 degree daytime warmup even with full sun, so
highs will struggle to exceed the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Main event starts on Friday and ends Saturday Night.

Cutoff low off the California coast is forecast to move east and
open up into a wave by 06z Friday. As the wave moves into Texas
moisture will spread up ahead of the system reaching central and
southern Missouri by 18Z Friday. Airmass is initially quite dry
and precipitation may totally hold off until after 00z. Kept
only slight chances going over southeast Missouri

Used GFS soundings mainly for precip types. They suggest that the
only place for any freezing rain, and it is a low chance, would be
parts of southeast Missouri after midnight. Generally north of a
line from Perryville MO to near Calhoun KY snow and possibly some
sleet is expected. By 12z Saturday even the low levels begin to
warm up and everything should be rain, or a quick changeover early
in the morning. The precipitation will gradually end from west to
east starting late Saturday afternoon.

Both the GFS and ECMWF both want to bring down a weak short wave
late Sunday Night into Monday, but at this point, expect this to
be moisture starved and more clouds than anything. After that,
Canadian high pressure will continue the cold wave with below
normal temperatures until possibly Wednesday when we may be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Should see relaxation in pressure gradient force after sunset,
with VFR conditions anticipated. However, may see patches of fog
develop late tonight-early tmrw am in favorable areas like KCGI
terminal, so included a tempo mention of MVFR restricted vsby for
a couple hours there. By the end of the planning period, swlys are
picking up ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold air that will be
making its passage and shifting the winds strongly/abruptly to
nwly, with associated gusts approaching 20 kts and model forecast
time/height cross sections suggest probably a lowering VFR deck of
sct-bkn clouds with its passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$