


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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193 FXUS63 KPAH 130459 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and humid conditions will fuel scattered daily showers and thunderstorms for the next week. - The strongest storms may pose an isolated to scattered threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will accompany all storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 With the passage of the convective line through southwest Indiana, the primary focus for the rest of the afternoon will be over the southern half of the Quad State. MLCAPE values around 2500J/kg will support robust updrafts, but the shear remains weak, so damaging winds will continue to be the primary severe threat through the afternoon. Low-level lapse rates over 8C/KM and DCAPE values over 1300J/kg are focused over west Kentucky, so the damaging wind threat would seem to increase as the storms gradually develop farther south and east across the area. With the storms lined up east to west from Cape county to Webster County, there is also a somewhat heightened concern for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding issues. The forecast for the upcoming week, is basically a broken record with near normal heat and humidity supporting isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. Greater coverage is likely Sunday as the tail-end of an upper disturbance provides a little extra lift. There are some signs that high pressure aloft may try to build northeast over the Quad State as we head into next weekend, which may eventually provide for a few dry days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Anywhere mid and high level clouds clear tonight will be able to quickly develop fog although the prevailing satellite trends seem to be that we stay clouded up most everywhere to the point visibility stays up. Convection then becomes the next concern with a window for that opening in the late morning and afternoon, similar to what the region saw on Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...JGG