Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 282332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Not much change to the philosophy of the short term forecast
today. No real signal at the surface or aloft for focusing
organized convection until a mid level trof and its associated
surface front arrive Friday night into Saturday. Thursday will
continue rainfree most locations, but increasing moisture on the
heels of a rich southerly from the Gulf Coast region will combine
with daytime heating by Friday afternoon to possibly yield
isolated to sct convection.

Shower/thunderstorm chances will ramp up Friday evening/overnight
as the aforementioned system approaches from the west. With
decent instability and sfc dew point up near 70 degrees, it looks
as though we could get one or possibly even two MCS type systems
going out over MO, which could track southeast across the forecast
region Friday night. Weak bulk shear may be the main inhibitor to
a greater organized severe threat, but a few severe storms with
gusty winds and hail cannot be ruled out. PW values up near 2
inches will result in very high rainfall efficiency and a threat
for locally heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Above average confidence in an unsettled weather pattern this
weekend into next week. However, there will be many dry hours even
with some sort of rain chance for some part of the area in almost
every period. Overall a fairly typical summertime pattern.

A weak cold front bisecting the region on Saturday will be the focus
for shower and storm development, with the best chance during the
afternoon and evening hours being south of the Ohio River. Timing
and coverage of convective activity Saturday will depend on
convective coverage through the area from Friday night into Saturday
morning and any potential outflow boundaries leftover. The airmass
may be slow to recover with lesser coverage by Saturday afternoon
and evening. This front essentially washes out as weak surface high
pressure builds in from the north Saturday night through Sunday
night. There remains enough of a signal for some precip across our
southern counties to maintain slight chance PoPs on Sunday. This
region will be closer to the better instability and moisture.
However, the ECMWF and Canadian models continue with their dry
signal during this period as precip is pushed even further south.
Will be interesting whether those solutions or the wetter GFS ends
up panning out.

PoP chances will increase Monday into Tuesday as shortwave energy
moves across the center of the country. Guidance is fairly
consistent in advertising a compact 500mb shortwave taking up
residence across the Missouri Valley Region. This would induce moist
southwest flow to strengthen into our area. Rain chances would
likewise increase, first across western and northern counties, and
then across the entire area as we head into the 4th of July holiday.
Weak flow but plenty of instability would lead to mainly a heavy
rain and lightning potential with any storms.

Temperatures will remain fairly uniform through the period with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows mostly in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Humidity values will remain at typical summertime levels
this weekend into next week, after the recent extended stretch of
unseasonably low dewpoints.


Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Little change this package. High pressure is in control, diurnal
cu soon to fade entirely with little more than high thin wisps,
otherwise moclear overnight sky. Diurnal cu tmrw should be a
little more expansive, so inherited low VFR CIGS around 5K FT AGL
seem appropriate. May see an isolated shower or storm during the
peak heating pm hours, but may wait a little on vicinity mention
or not.




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