Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Low pressure aloft is seen over central Indiana, and it`s related
to convection we see narrowly clipping our northeastern counties
and just beyond. Models depict this low circulating/drifting
slowly southeastward with time. As it does so...it distances
itself from the PAH FA...and the isolated Pops mainly across our
north will slowly wane/dissipate. Surface High pressure builds
across the middle Ohio valley as the wave, now open, departs
across Delmarva by the end of the short term forecast period.
Upper Heights gradually rise as well with time, with strong
synoptic scale ridging building in from the west.

All of the aforementioned means despite lingering isolated pops
today, we`ll transition from our mostly dry to completely dry
forecast. Temps will continue their slight uptick of a degree or
two per day, resulting in some nr 90/low 90s and nr 70 readings by
the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Hot and dry conditions are expected during the long-term period
beneath a large upper-level high. Very little difference in temps or
humidity is expected from day to day. Highs will generally be in the
lower half of the 90s...tho some of the more recent MOS suggests we
may test the mid 90s Friday and Saturday.

Given the easterly low level flow, dew points are not forecast to be
as high as previous heat waves this summer. Forecast dew points
through the long term will be from 65 to 70, which is rather low
compared to the 75 to 80 degree dew points earlier this summer. The
ground has become significantly drier since the July flooding
events, which supports a forecast of lower humidity levels. On the
other hand, lower humidity also supports higher temps during the
day.

Will need to keep an eye the the possibility of an easterly wave
moving west into the se U.S. toward the end of the long term. At
minimum, this wave could help to bring down temps a notch or two,
and could also bring a few showers to portions of the region, esp
wrn KY.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu field impacting flight terminals with
predominantly scattered decks...although a temporary/isolated bkn
deck or even vicinity shower (northeast.. KEVV/KOWB) is not
altogether a dismissed possibility even if not currently reflected
in the package. Patchy fog tonight may again offer restricted
vsbys at the terminals and tmrw will again see diurnally fueled
bases scattered in the low VFR range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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