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000
FXUS63 KPAH 170439
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

High pressure now just east of the region will continue to bring
dry conditions tonight through Thursday. With the high to the east
of the area, light southeasterly flow should hold temperatures
above the freezing mark tonight. Still may see some patchy frost
though...esp in sheltered areas where the wind may go calm.

Models are in decent agreement that the next weak sfc trof and H50
short wave will approach the region later Thursday night and
Friday morning. Trend has been weaker and weaker with the surface
low as the main H50 energy breaks off and dives se into the Gulf
Coast states. Will leave slight chc pops in for the weak frontal
package, but looks to be a non event at this time.

Even though the winds will turn around to the northwest after the
frontal package, there will be very little if any cold air
advection. In fact, a return to sunshine will likely push
afternoon readings to near 70 degrees Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The extended forecast period begins with ridging over the WFO PAH
forecast area. Although there is a slight phasing and amplitude difference in
the northern stream (basically northern 1/3rd of the U.S.) and the
southern stream (southern 2/3rds of the U.S.) flow, the ridge and
trough pattern is similar, but moves out of phase Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

The deterministic medium range model suite (namely the ECMWF, GFS,
GEM) guidance shears the low/trough over the Four Corners region in
the Southwest U.S. northeastward to the WFO PAH forecast area Sunday
through Monday with precipitation chances oriented along and east of
the southwest to northeast oriented trough axis.

There is sufficient instability to warrant a differential PoP
forecast for thunder with the passage of the system Sunday into
Monday. Otherwise a relatively drier and warmer temperature trend
will be in store for the end of the forecast period.

Max/Min temperatures will average around five degrees above normal
during this time of year.

Looking beyond the current forecast cycle, dominate ridging is
projected during the middle of next week, with an extremely slow
moving, but deep trough pushing across the WFO PAH forecast area
late next week (last weekend of April). The ECMWF/GFS vary
significantly on the orientation and intensity of the upper trough,
but this event could be a rain soaker with some limited severe
weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Light southeast winds overnight will pick up from the south in the
morning as a weak cold front approaches the area. The strongest
winds will be in the northeast, and possibly in the morning, with
weakening winds later in the afternoon, as the front creeps
closer. The latest guidance indicates that low-level moisture will
spread northward through the area mainly in the afternoon and
especially the evening. KPAH will be the first to get the 4-5kft
clouds and the most likely to have a ceiling condition in the
evening. However, would not rule out a ceiling just about anywhere
in the evening, as the moisture piles up just ahead of the cold
front. The front will stay north of the TAF sites through the evening,
but the gradient will weaken considerably in the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS