Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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210
FXUS63 KPAH 010255
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
955 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Flash Flood Watch cancelled. Only minor updates to the weather
grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Near term convection is active/ongoing, still pushing thru
WKY/SIL/SWIN at this writing, where active FFW`s and Sig Wx
Advisories are in effect. Fortunately, svr convective parameters
appear to be mitigated for our area, with main impacts sub svr gusty
winds as higher dbz cores move in. Otherwise locally heavy rains
falling on the already saturated grounds, continuing ongoing
flooding or impeding flood water recessions. Models suggest
svr/convective threat shifting east this evening, and Pops winding
down thereafter, so all active watch/warning products should be
expiring later this evening/overnight.

After that, it`s a couple of recovery days for much of the
remainder of the short term, with much cooler air sweeping down on
the back side of the Low for Monday-Monday night in particular.
We`ll start to moderate thermally again by Tue, with zonal flow
re-establishing.

Late Tue night, the models lay a boundary out across our southern
tier counties. There is an elevated warm front displaced maybe
25-50 miles to the north, where some overrunning energy could pop
a few showers/storms. We`ve included a convective mention of
thunder for this late Tue night across far southeast MO and far
southwest KY, similar to inherited with slight massage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Overrunning north of a surface frontal boundary will be underway mid
week for the PAH forecast area. The strongest signal for pcpn/QPF
appears to be Wed night. Rainfall amounts of an inch or less are
currently forecast for Wed/Wed night, and lightning probabilities
are expected to be slight Wed afternoon and evening in the southern
third of the region.

According to the latest medium range model runs, we will be to the
north of a surface low pressure area, thus we should maintain
easterly to northerly surface winds Wed and through the day Thu,
then more northwesterly after the passage of an mid/upper low,
meaning temps will be on the cool side through at least Fri night.

The model blend suggests that showers in the eastern half of the
region could linger into Fri evening, but this seemed to be mainly
because of the deterministic GFS, which had the mid/upper low more
cut off from the mid level flow over the eastern CONUS. It appears
the more significant QPF with this system may occur through Thu
night, with lighter amounts, if any, after that.

Into the weekend, the PAH forecast area will be under persistent
northwesterly flow aloft, albeit with gradually rising heights.
Expect highs to recover back into the 70s by the weekend under
mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Gusty SSW winds forecast, with scattered showers this evening that
may result in temporary MVFR vsbys. Improvement in cigs expected
overnight as drier air continues to work in from the west.
Temporary MVFR cigs possible through the day Monday as well.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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