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000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$