Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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547
FXUS63 KPAH 251220
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
720 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The southeastern CONUS mid level ridge that the PAH forecast area
is under the edge of will expand a bit today as shortwave energy
to the north departs. As a result, the forecast is for essentially no
measurable pcpn through this afternoon. As low level moist fetch
increases from the south ahead of a weak surface frontal boundary,
there will be only a slight chance of measurable pcpn in
southeastern MO/part of southwestern IL tonight.

Friday morning, what little surface front there is should be
replaced by southerly low level flow as northern stream mid level
shortwave energy approaches our region. Scattered shower and tstm
activity should spread across the entire region, induced by a
subtle disturbance in the southwesterly flow. As this feature
moves by, coverage of convective activity may actually decrease in
the afternoon. At least slight chances will continue into Friday
night for most of the region due to the main shortwave as it moves
along. PoPs rise on Saturday with the heat of the day as the
shortwave finally begins to pull away toward the Great Lakes, with
the highest (50%) being in southern IL and adjacent parts of
southeastern MO. This event has been well advertised by the models
for days, though the finer details differ between some of the
models. Subsidence associated with the ridge aloft is expected to
limit the strength of tstms.

Muggy conditions are expected to continue through the short term,
with heat indices above 100 at many locations today. Increased
cloud cover and pcpn will limit peak temps Friday and Saturday, so
that heat indices should generally stay in the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model discrepancies.

At the beginning of the long term period a dirty H5 ridge is
forecast to be centered over the mid atlantic coast. With time the
ridge is forecast to weaken and move offshore as a potential
tropical system moves northward along the east coast. In the wake of
the tropical system, models are showing the upper ridge building
northward into the region.

There are precipitation chances every period for either all or part
of the CWA, but the bottom line is that depending on how far the
ridge noses into our CWA will determine precipitation chances and
coverage. Models are not in good agreement so as mentioned above
confidence is low. With a couple of exceptions, the areas with the
highest probability of receiving precipitation will be the northwest
half of our CWA, although at this juncture couldn`t see getting too
crazy.

Temperatures will remain normal to slightly above normal through the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 720 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Cumulus clouds and a modest southwest wind under 10kts can be
expected today. It appears the surface winds will die off overnight,
possibly resulting in MVFR/IFR fog late in the night at some
locations. This was mentioned at KCGI/KPAH, and the potential will
be evaluated for the KEVV/KOWB terminals for the next TAFs.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB



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