Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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963
FXUS63 KPAH 242317
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

H7 Temps AOA 11C may effectively cap updrafts today, but may
linger a slgt chance depending on how the pm progresses thru press
time. Will monitor.

Tonight, the cap looks to hold, and save for a potential heat of
day early evening mention being a possible holdover (see
aforementioned), will lay off overnight convection, despite
inheriting northwest fringe pop...as new NAM keeps any such
activity just outside bounds of CWA.

Tmrw-Tue look to be more convectively active, and perhaps even
Tuesday as much/moreso than Monday now, if the NAM plays out.
However the GFS is still equally active both days. High PWs and
CAPEs should be enough for at least robust scattering of
convection, with likelys possible if the upper High circulation both
models feature does not center overhead. This could back some pops
off Monday moreso than Tuesday, if it plays out to be true.

Heat Index may exceed 100 again both days, but with generally more
active convection and associated debris clouds, will hold off on
2nd period extensions of short fused Advisory...with no
collaborative stomach for that either. MEG has already dropped
theirs today, but we`ll let ours die naturally, as HI is already
in triple digits and AOA 105 in several locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A wet weather pattern is on tap for the long term portion of the
forecast. The models are in good agreement that the elongated 500 mb
ridge spanning the southern and central states will split. A trough
will develop over the Great Lakes by mid-week, extending down
through the Mississippi Valley. The main forecast issue is the
timing of the highest rain chances.

Based on recent ecmwf runs and gfs ensemble means, it appears the
trough will reach its maximum amplitude late in the week. The
highest rain chances will be forecast for Thursday, when the
longwave trough axis will be just upstream from our region. Will
venture to include some likely pops in parts of the area Thursday.
Otherwise, chance pops will be broad-brushed through the entire long-
term period.

Late in the weekend, the trough will begin to de-amplify as it
starts to move to our east. This should result in a slight drying
trend, but the surface pattern will remain very diffuse. Given the
lack of any real change in air mass (along with the likelihood of a
surface boundary nearby), a low chance pop will be included for
Sunday.

The main driver of temps through the long-term period will be
convective outflow boundaries. The surface synoptic pattern will be
very diffuse, and any frontal boundary will likely be washed out by
convective outflow boundaries. On any given day, it appears
convective coverage should be enough to keep temps mainly in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Other than some high clouds overnight, generally clear, especially
east of the MS River. Calm winds, with MVFR fog possibility.
Convection possible Monday. Better chances by afternoon, handled
with VCTS mention given uncertainty regarding coverage. Light SSW
winds Monday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$



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