Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300757
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Large area of convection started moving into SEMO from the southwest
at around 05Z in association with a warm front swinging northeast
into the area. The warm front will continue moving northeast across
the rest of the area this morning. As this occurs, we expect this
large area of convection to continue to move southwest to northeast.
Of the many different QPF solutions to look at in the short term,
the HRRR and RAP seem to have the best handle on things for at
least today. After this batch of rain moves through this morning,
the challenge of what to do with this afternoon`s POPS remains.

We will be fully entrenched in the warm section by afternoon with a
cold front looming to our west. If we can get the morning convection
out of here in time...we will likely destabilize during the
afternoon with enough instability and increasing winds aloft to
warrant the possibility of strong to severe cells developing ahead
of the cold front. Right now, will maintain the chance type POPS for
the afternoon hours for the likelihood of convection developing with
the heat of the day. Not really knowing the degree of coverage at
this point, will not cross over into the likely category until the
evening hours when the front is actually forecast to move into the
region.

Then we turn to Sunday. We will still have the cold frontal
boundary in the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough associated with
this front will be moving eastward across the upper Midwest and a
decent upper level jet will be racing across parts of IL/IN during
that time. This could aid in the development of additional showers
and storms especially across southern IL/southwest IN and parts of
west KY on Sunday, some of which could be strong to possibly severe.
However, models are are not agreeing on exactly how this will play
out. The majority of the convection may end up being to our north.
We`ll see.

We continue to have a battle of the wills with model solutions on
Monday. The ECMWF still insists on painting QPF across our southern
areas with the approach of another upper trough, while the GFS
leaves us dry with any convection passing us by to the south and sfc
high pressure dominating. The timing of said QPF continues to flip
flop as well...Monday vs Monday night. But the latest SREF does have
a similar idea to the ECMWF. Due to challenges with neighboring
offices, will just leave slight chances in the south for Mon night
for now. In any event, we will see cooler temperatures for
Monday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Below average confidence in the long term due to model differences.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low just north of the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low diving
southeast across the region on Tuesday but due to a lack of moisture
it should remain dry. In the wake of the short wave, weak high
pressure should keep Tuesday night dry also.

Small precipitation chances might make their way into our far
northern counties on Wednesday as another shot of upper level energy
pushes a cold front southward toward our CWA. Rain chances are
slightly higher Wednesday night with the passage of said front but
should be confined to the eastern third of our CWA where deep layer
moisture will be greatest.

On Thursday models show the upper low splitting with a chunk of it
breaking off and moving toward the east coast and the other part
slowly filling as it moves due south. The projected track is
forecast to take the low across Ohio on Thursday, then a slight turn
to the southeast with the low over the Carolinas by weeks end. With
the passage of the upper low to our east on Thursday the GFS cranks
out slight precipitation chances over our far eastern counties while
the ECMWF keeps all precipitation east of our area, and most of the
GEFS ensemble members show no precip that day so will keep it dry
for now.

Thursday night and Friday should remain dry as the upper low moves
off to the southeast and surface high pressure overspreads the
region.

Temperatures will generally remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A large area of showers and most likely some embedded TS will move
northeast into the area overnight and will reach the northeast
TAFs by daybreak. A 4-6 hour window of MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions can be expected. Tried to time out the best period for
TS at all sites. Winds will be veering through midday and will end
up due south by midday as a warm front lifts to our north. Some
gustiness will be possible, but generally at or below 20kts.

Biggest uncertainty is in SHRA/TSRA development in the late
afternoon and evening. Plenty of instability should be available
if there is some focus for development. Thought a PROB30 for TS
was warranted, but this should be more scattered activity and the
impact will only be for an hour or so at any location.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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