516
FXUS63 KPAH 072131
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
431 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue with
  torrential downpours and lightning being the main concern.
  Isolated stronger storms today and Tuesday may also cause a
  brief downburst.

- Heat indices on Friday may exceed 100 degrees again, but the
  duration will be short with improvements by Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A series of 500 mb impulses embedded in broad troughing aloft will
cause daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire
week. A broken line of storms have already developed along a cold
front over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest
Indiana that will sag south through this evening. Given
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, sfc-3km lapse rates between 7.0-7.5
C/km, and a max theta-e difference around 25K, the main concern
with stronger storms will be the potential for downburst along
with torrential downpours and lightning. Due to the lack of
shear and weak synoptic forcing, organized convection remains
unlikely and will be driven by diurnal heating. As a warm front
lifts back north on Tuesday, destabilization will be probable in
the afternoon again as a slightly more amplified shortwave
trough ejects across the FA. The overall parameters remain
similar to today to support a brief isolated stronger storm as
the winds aloft at the jet level are extremely weak.

There are some signs the low-level deep moisture may back off a bit
on Friday allowing for some relief; however, a vort max that digs
across the northern Plains on Saturday will cause deep layer
moisture from the southwest to return, bringing additional daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures through the
week remain persistent in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices are progged to exceed 100
degrees again on Friday due to the drier conditions, but the
duration will be short with improvements likely by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will diminish with loss of diurnal
heating fuel. Restrictions to both cigs/vsbys may be prevalant
until that time, after which, clouds scatter overnight and there
is potential for fog restricting vsbys. Tmrw will be similar to
today with fog burning off early and diurnal cu leading to heat
of day storm chances.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$