Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140515
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A surface trough/front approaching from the northwest is forecast to
wash out over our CWA tonight. Even with the approach of this
feature combined with plenty of instability and moisture in place, a
capping inversion seems to be keeping the initiation of convection
at bay.

Per model soundings the capping inversion will be disappear by late
this afternoon so as the afternoon progresses I expect things to
light up quite nicely along and ahead of the approaching boundary.
Even with the dissipation of the aforementioned surface boundary
tonight, an approaching short wave will combine with other dynamics
causing precipitation probabilities to increase through the
overnight hours. A few storms could become severe this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall being the
primary threats.

In the meantime a bona fide cold front dropping southeast out of the
plains will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms on
Monday and Monday night, although precipitation chances will
diminish from the northwest Monday night. A few storms could becomes
severe on Monday as well. With deep layer shear increasing, freezing
level lowering, any storms that become severe could produce damaging
winds, large hail, and possibly even a tornado.

Thankfully the passage of the front will bring a much needed relief
from the oppressive heat and humidity with high temperatures in the
70s and overnight lows in the 50s through much of the upcoming
week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Unseasonably cooler and less humid weather will persist Wednesday
and Thursday as the core of high pressure shifts east from the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late week. In the
upper levels, northwest flow will prevail with the region between an
upper level ridge over the west and a trough in the east.

As early as Thursday night, models continue to depict a slow return
of moisture as an upper level wave slides east from the southern
Plains into the Deep South and phases with the eastern U.S. trough.
Given some degree of model variability, there remains a question
as to how far north the impacts of this system will reach. However,
enough evidence supports the reintroduction of at least a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly central and southern
portions of the forecast area Friday into Saturday. Will keep Sunday
dry for now as the wave shifts to the east, but an isolated heat of
the day storm certainly cannot be ruled out given the return of heat
and humidity.

The period will start off with unseasonably cool temperatures. Highs
Wednesday should remain in the mid to upper 70s with nighttime lows
in the mid to upper 50s. A gradual warming trend will take place
through the remainder of the week as highs climb back into the lower
and mid 80s, with lows moderating through the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

The nrn half of the region will be affected by plenty of shower
activity shortly after midnight, with scattered tstms around. The
probable timing of shower and tstm activity has become somewhat
clearer. Another surge of convection is expected to move ewd through
sern MO and eventually across almost the entire region overnight,
resulting in wind gusts to 25-30 kts and intermittent MVFR/IFR
vsbys. Though the sun may be seen some on Mon, MVFR cigs may be
around for a while in the morning. A secondary cold front will enter
the weather picture around sunset, with showers and possible tstms
in the evening, and a distinct wind shift to the north.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RP
AVIATION...DB








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