Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180619
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
119 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A weak surface ridge and dry airmass across the region today will
result in mostly sunny skies with slightly lower humidity. Upper
level energy will dive SE tonight from the Upper Midwest to the
Ohio Valley region, with a weak surface reflection moving into the
area as well. Marginal moisture and some instability warrants
slight chance PoPs moving in from the west /northwest late
tonight, shifting to southern sections of the area by Saturday
afternoon. Again only slight chances given marginal overall
moisture (the theme recently). Will have a dry forecast Saturday
night through Sunday night. However on Sunday, hints of weak
return flow and marginal moisture means isolated convection cannot
be ruled out completely. Confidence in coverage and occurrence
too low to include in the forecast. Temps will be a blend of
persistence and MOS. Wx elements a straight up model blend given
low confidence in any one solution.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Medium confidence in the extended as models continue to come into
better agreement.

High pressure over the Atlantic coast will retrograde or build west
ward into the region. Also by Sunday a cold front will have moved
south of the Ohio and Mid Mississippi River Valleys...allowing high
pressure to build in at the surface early in the week. This has also
reduced expected cloud cover for early in the week as well as rain
chances. However we still have a very low chance mainly west of the
Mississippi River Monday afternoon. This will definitely have an
impact on sky cover for the rest of the area should any storms form
to our west. The models are also hinting at an Meso scale convective
system (MCS) forming overnight in northern MO and IA. However the
500 mb flow is nearly zonal with the 700 mb flow to the northeast.
This should keep most of the debris clouds from this system well to
our north. We will continue to monitor closely but for now we have a
fairly reasonable chance of observing the eclipse. This will
continue to change as we near the event. Dew points will take a dive
Sunday as the cold front pushes south of the area. However this will
be short lived as the southerly flow rapidly returns to around 70
Monday. Heat index values will be in the middle 90s Monday. By
Tuesday we will have a very weak warm front lift through the region
as high pressure builds even farther to south and west. This will
allow an upper or mid level trough with a surface reflection of a
cold front to move through the area creating rain chances for the
middle of the week. Thursday the cold front will move south of the
area bringing slightly cooler and drier air late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Other than the local KCGI fog, WSW flow persists across the area.
Not sure we will see much in the way of MVFR restrictions.
Otherwise VFR today through tonight, with light west winds later
today. Will monitor slight chance of convection that may affect
southeast MO, southern IL very late tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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