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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161140 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A COUPLE OF RIPPLES OF ENERGY IN NEAR ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR CWA...WITH SAID BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
BECOME STATIONARY E-W ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA BY 12Z
MONDAY.

LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA THUS FAR
BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE MOISTENING UP THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH FORCING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIURNAL LULL IN THE ACTION TONIGHT...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE MOVING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TAPS INTO THE EVER INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PUSHES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY..THEN UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK PLACING US IN AN EVER STEEPENING NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THEY WANT TO STALL IT OUT OVER US. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP. THE GFS
STALL IT OUT RIGHT UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND GIVES SOME QPF ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF STALLS IT OUT MORE
OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KY AND HOLDS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. THEN SATURDAY THE THE ECMWF INDICATES AN MCS
TRAVELING ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING OUR NE AND GLANCING BLOW.
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN MCS COMING OUT OF MO AND PHASING WITH THE
STALLED FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING QPF TO THE AREA. THE GFS
HOWEVER MIGHT BE CONTAMINATED WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PAH CWA. AT THIS TIME PREFER TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A LITTLE BETTER CONTINUITY CAN BE ESTABLISHED. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TOO WET AND IT SHOULD BE RAINING RIGHT NOW IF YOU BOUGHT INTO
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF MODELS RUNS BUT YET MID CLOUD DECKS ARE THE MOST
WE HAVE ATTM.

AS FOR TEMPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING
TREND TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AND PLAN TO FOLLOW THAT
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCSH AND
TSRA POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14-23Z. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS AFT 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH