Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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088
FXUS63 KPAH 212251
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Most recent model guidance is hinting at somewhat stronger gradient
winds tomorrow as the low pressure and cold front approach. As a
result, we have updated the forecast to raise sustained winds on
Sunday to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph. The strongest
winds appear likely from mid morning through early afternoon. Also
upped temperatures tonight given the sky cover and wind forecast.
Otherwise, remainder of forecast remains in tact with no changes
necessary.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Looks as though we will be transitioning into a wet pattern
during the short term as a deep mid/upper level low pressure
system and it`s associated cold front move ever so slowly through
the MS River Valley. 12Z GFS is showing some decent instability
later tonight over southeast MO as the leading batch of precip
moves in from the west, with MUCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG creeping
into our far western counties after midnight. Thinking right now
though is the chances for any severe storms look fairly meager.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will then gradually overspread
the forecast area from west to east on Sunday, with even eastern
sections most likely to get in on the action by late in the day.
Some rains will also linger behind the cold front Sunday night,
but the heavier rainfall should shift just east of the region
after midnight. Looking at rainfall totals from 1 to 2 inches
common over most of the forecast area by Monday morning, possibly
a bit higher over our southern Pennyrile regions of western KY.
Some light rains may even linger into the day on Monday, mainly
over the eastern third of the region, but the main focus will be
farther east closer to the cold front. Max temps are expected to
remain in the 60s many areas, coolest east where clouds will be
slower to clear.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A deep 500 mb longwave trough over eastern North America will ensure
very cool temperatures over our region next week. The main forecast
issues are precip potential associated with a cold frontal passage,
along with frost/freeze potential.

Tuesday appears increasingly drier as the models are moving out this
weekend`s system more quickly than previous runs. This should allow
enough sun for highs to reach the upper 50s to around 60 in most
areas, despite 850 mb temps falling to around freezing. The best
chance of widespread clouds and even a few sprinkles is in southwest
Indiana, which will be closer to the center of the sprawling upper
level low over the Great Lakes region. This could keep highs cooler
in those areas.

The best chance of frost appears to be Tuesday night, but once again
there is the potential for clouds and wind. Lows are forecast to be
mainly in the upper 30s based on the persistent northwest winds.
Frost will be mentioned for sheltered areas of the Ozark foothills,
as well as some of the I-64 corridor.

The forecast for Wednesday is a bit complicated due to the potential
for a clipper type disturbance to move southeast around the Great
Lakes low. The 12z gfs clearly depicts such a clipper system. The
12z gefs mean qpf and 700 mb rh hints at the system, but the 12z
ecmwf does not. The forecast will be kept dry for now, but clouds
will be increased. There should be a rather sharp temp gradient from
west to east, with highs on Wed probably 10 degrees cooler in sw
Indiana than se Missouri.

On Thursday, a southwest flow of warmer air will precede the next
surge of chilly air. Highs should reach around 70 in most areas
under the small 500 mb shortwave ridge.

Another strong cold front will arrive sometime Friday or Saturday,
depending on your model of choice. A chance of showers will
accompany the front. There is a pretty good model signal this will
be the coldest air of the season so far, based on 850 mb temps.
Forecast highs for Saturday will be in the mid 50s, but even these
cool temps are above nearly all 12z guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions will persist across the region through the 09z, the
gradually lower to MVFR from west to east thereafter. Eastern
locations could remain with VFR cigs through the 18z TAF period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY



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