Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 031549
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO PUSH THE ZONE OF MOST LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VEERED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
I-64 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN A ZONE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ALOT OF CONVECTION EVEN IN
THAT AREA...SO ONLY USED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGHS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT AVOID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 HEAT
INDICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BY 00Z
SHOULD RUN ALONG ROUTE 13 AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (NW KY/SW IN).
MODELS SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA THOUGH MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG
POSSIBLE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LINGER POPS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FARTHER SSE THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER 02/03Z THE MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY...AT LEAST UNTIL TOWARD DAY BREAK TUE UP
AROUND SW INDIANA. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY A S/WV RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF WEST KY DOWN TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY REMAIN DRY. THEN POPS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS MOVES ESE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF CAUGHT ON
FASTER...AND CONTINUES TO (IT SEEMS) HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE
TRICKY NW FLOW EVENTS WITH RESPECT TO BEST MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND
QPF. THE NAM...RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
INCONSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV COULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WORKS AS WELL WITH MODELS PROJECTING PW`S RISING BACK TOWARD THE
2" RANGE. TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT EXACTLY CONSISTENT ON
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LINGERING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
BUT THINK THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST...MAINLY THE
MORNING. ONCE THAT WAVE DEPARTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING YET ANOTHER WAVE DOWN THE PIKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THAT IDEA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS AND WAIT FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND RECENT RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THAT. IN
FACT...THE SFC PATTERN ON SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY MESSY WITH HARDLY ANY AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE AT TIMES.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT ACTUALLY WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH ANY POTENTIAL ENERGY RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THAT ENERGY IS
ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT IT MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS


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