Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 031927
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

576DM LOW OVER NW INDIANA WAS SEEN ON WVAPOR/MODEL OVERLAY WITH
A LOBE EXTENDING SW ACROSS MO/IL...HELPING TO TRIGGER HEAT OF THE
DAY CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE
TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION SRN SECTIONS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM WAS THROWN OUT FOR SAT NIGHT AS
IT SEEMS TOO SLOW WITH A WEAK SRN H5 LOW...AND HOLDING MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR SE COUNTIES. SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. AGAIN JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF
CONVECTION S/SE COUNTIES SUNDAY WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER.

TEMPS ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

USED A BLEND OF THE EC/GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY MORNING PERHAPS AS WELL...WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE WITH TIME. SIGNAL FOR DECENT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AND QPF SEEMS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND EITHER SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT HAVING TO DEAL WITH HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
TIMING MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED ALONG WITH THE WINDOW OF BEST
OPPORTUNITY. AFTER THAT...THE ECENS LOOKED MORE LIKE THE GEFS AND
EVEN OPERATIONAL GFS...KEEPING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA...AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. POPS MUCH LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND FORECAST LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES COMBINED WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND VCSH/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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