Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 042223
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
423 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern is expected to continue across the CONUS
in the near term. A trof axis will move eastward away from the PAH
forecast area today, and will be followed by ridging and high
pressure at the surface for Friday. Saturday will bring yet
another trof axis through our region. Lack of moist return flow
should preclude any measurable pcpn with these systems in the
short term.

Skies will be clear tonight with light and variable winds, thus
temps should drop well into the 20s everywhere, unlike last night
when clouds hung over the eastern third of the region and held
temps up there. As the air mass slowly modifies, a gradual
warming trend can be expected starting Friday, lasting through the
weekend. Highs should exceed 50 at many locations by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Fairly high confidence in the major trends through the extended
portion of the forecast. A warm day Sunday, then a developing upper-
level trough will bring in much cooler air for Monday through the
end of the forecast. Confidence in the timing and location of light
precipitation Sunday night through Tuesday is quite a bit lower, but
any precipitation should definitely be light after Sunday evening.

Winds will be increasing from the southwest Sunday as the lead
mid/upper-level trough dives southeast from the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase as well, but temperatures should
climb into the 50s throughout the region.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement in generating some modest
QPF mainly over west Kentucky Sunday evening, and then pushing it
east of the area overnight into early Monday. With the cold
advection not really going yet in the evening, most of this
precipitation should fall as rain. The entire column will be cooling
quickly with the arrival of the first upper low/trough by 12Z
Monday, so if precipitation lingers overnight, it could change over
to snow.

The models are not in very good agreement in timing the best surge
of the cold air across the region, but the consensus is for high
temperatures on Monday in the lower 40s over much of the area. This
may be a bit optimistic, and if so, instead of a mix of rain and
snow, any precipitation Monday may very well fall as light snow.
With the good cooling off the surface, melting will only occur in
the boundary layer, if it is warm/deep enough to get the job done.

Any QPF Monday night and Tuesday should fall as snow throughout the
area. Once again any QPF beyond early Monday should be light, so
accumulations will be hard to find. We will continue to monitor, but
at this time it does not look like an impactful precipitation event.
However, the cold air will really settle in Tuesday night and
Wednesday, when lows will be in the teens and wind chills will
drop into the single digits above zero throughout the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Time/height cross sections show some high clouds tomorrow.
Satellite suggests some mid cloud could creep in too, mainly
north. Winds will be nil tonight, then average 5-10 kts tmrw from
the west, diminishing and becoming variable late in the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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