Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230903
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
403 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Mid level shortwave energy moving through the Midwest will
continue to induce a surface boundary which is forecast to move
southward most of the way into the PAH forecast area, before
stalling, and remaining in the area through Tue. In the near term,
showers and tstms will continue to affect mainly the northern
half of the region in the early morning hours, supported by 2000
SBCAPEs. North of I-64, where the 0-6 km bulk shear is better,
some tstms may become strong or severe.

After a possible lull in the morning hours after sunrise due to
stabilization of the lower trop, updrafts should be able to
overcome the cap by afternoon in the afternoon, mainly over the
southern half of the region. Model consensus indicates that the
boundary should be bisecting our region by then, and slowly
sinking south. Scattered convective activity should be able to
continue over the southern half through this evening. Due to
somewhat increased bulk shear and 5000+ SBCAPEs, some tstms may
become strong to severe in the afternoon/evening. Moisture pooling
is expected to continue ahead of the front this afternoon, and
with highs in the lower to middle 90s, we should see heat indices
in excess of 105 at most locations this afternoon. Thus, the
Excessive Heat Warning will continue until 7 pm this evening.

Thankfully, there will be somewhat drier and cooler air behind
this boundary (not as dry/cool as previously forecast), but the
models continue to suggest some possibility of scattered showers
and tstms in the heat of the day Mon and Tue, where the deeper
moisture will be, i.e., surface dewpoints are forecast to remain
in the 70s there. Meanwhile, by early Mon, northern counties could
see a modest drop in surface dewpoints into the upper 60s.

In the slightly drier air Mon and Tue, highs should be around 90,
with heat indices flirting with 100 degrees in southeastern MO and
the adjacent Purchase Area of KY.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

At the beginning of the period, a mid level ridge axis will extend
from its center over the SW U.S. ENE across the lower Ohio Valley
region. The pattern will amplify through the period as energy
topping the ridge moves SE from the NW U.S. and northern Rockies
across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This
will result in a transition to a northwest flow pattern across our
area.

Models hint at a slight chance of convection Tuesday night across
mainly SEMO. May see isolated heat of the day convection Wednesday.
Should be mainly dry Wednesday night. Have a slight chance PoP for
convection in across our far NW counties in case the faster models
verify. However, overall we prefer the slightly slower more
consistent EC. As mid level heights fall, will see a front move SE
toward the area Thursday. Will have increasing chances of convection
from north to south Thursday-Thursday night. The chance will shift
south with the front Friday. By Friday night, the Front and deeper
moisture should be south of the entire area, save for our TN/AR
border counties very early Friday evening. So mainly dry overnight
Friday night through Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure
builds into the area. Slightly lower temperatures as well. Used a
EC/ECENS/GFS MOS blend for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Enough pressure gradient should be maintained to allow light
southwesterlies to continue overnight. A frontal boundary will
drop south and introduce scattered low VFR bases with potential
for mid cloud broken bases/cigs as well. Isolated or vicinity
mention inserted at KEVV (and KOWB) will be kept this package as
all models produce convection, albeit scattered, along boundary
upon its drop southward.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN



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