Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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027
FXUS63 KPAH 281825 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1225 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Not alot of discussion time available this morning, first severe
thunderstorm warning issued a few minutes ago. Elevated
thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, was anticipated the last
couple days for parts of Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois
for the 09z-12z (3 am-6am CST) time period this morning. Both the
high resolution CAM (Convection Allowing Models) and the larger
grid spaced model guidance (12km NAM-WRF, 20km GFS, as well as
the ECMWF and CMCnh) are initializing the convection 40-80 nm too
far to the west-southwest. Made adjustments to the grids to
reflect the more progressive movement of the shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The cloud forecast will be problematic today and may impact
convective initiation later on this afternoon. I would not be
surprised to see a reduction of measurable PoPs for update for
later this morning into early afternoon.

Big question remains for this evening and overnight as to the
timing and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this
point, considering the enhanced risk, decided to increase emphasis
to damaging wind for tonight with the mention of severe storms.

Given the speed of this system, cleared out the precipitation a
little faster than the medium range guidance. Limited any mention
of severe thunderstorms to the 6am to 9am CST Wednesday for West
Kentucky. Also transitioned from damaging winds to heavy rain
during the same time period.

Dry and near seasonable temperatures should continue following the
frontal passage into Thursday.

Will try to provide a more detailed timing and description of
threats in the weather story and a local mesoscale discussion
during the next couple of hours...right now the focus is on
handling current warnings for Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Average confidence in the long term due to so-so model agreement,
especially Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday. Late Saturday night into Sunday, the
Canadian wants to crank out small pops over parts of the CWA but it
is the outlier model for sure. During that time frame we will be on
the back side of the aforementioned high pressure with increasing
moisture through the lower troposphere, which is probably what the
Canadian is latching onto. However, with no apparent kicker during
that period have opted to go with the majority and keep those
periods dry.

Precipitation chances begin to increase from the west Sunday night
into Monday with the approach of a cold front out of the plains.
Models not in good agreement on available instability ahead of the
approaching cold front so will not mention thunder in those
periods at this time.

Temperatures Friday and Friday night will be within a few degrees of
normal, then quickly warm to well above normal through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

There will be a trend for cigs to go MVFR this afternoon, and parts
of the region will receive some light rain with minimal, if any,
vsby restrictions throughout the afternoon. Intervals of tstms, some
severe, are expected in the evening and well into the overnight
hours, though one of the strongest signals for tstm activity was
from 03Z-08Z. MVFR cigs are possible by then outside of tstms. A
robust southerly low level flow will continue through the overnight
hours, followed by a shift to the west due to a cold front which is
forecast to enter the region from the west after about 12Z. Some
strong tstm activity may erupt just ahead of it.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB



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