Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 292001
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Upper level high pressure centered over the region today will slowly
break down by Wednesday as a trough digs southeast into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast U.S. This is in response to height
rises/ridging developing over the Northern Plains/Rockies. During
the transition an upper level wave will dive southeast and influence
our area on Wednesday.

Much of the same can be expected weather-wise tomorrow with isolated
diurnal showers/storms possible. Like today though, coverage will be
minimal and may end up mainly on the far west and northwest
periphery of the area. Subsidence beneath the upper high has
essentially negated convection today and may do the same tomorrow.
Main hazard from any storms that can pop up will be heavy
rain/possible localized flash flooding, due to the slow
movement/nearly stationary nature and precipitable water values of
1.8-2.0 inches. PoPs will be highest on Wednesday, as the
aforementioned upper wave affects our area. Best chances peak over
northern/western counties and dwindle toward the southeast. Not much
of a wind shift noted behind the passage of the upper wave, but sfc
high pressure will push into the area behind this disturbance,
allowing drier air to filter in by Thursday.

Temperatures will remain a bit above normal tomorrow before lowering
to near normal on Wednesday. Humidity levels will remain high with
dewpoints above 70 through Wednesday. Heat index values will top off
in the upper 90s to around 100 again tomorrow. Our run of 70+ degree
lows will also be coming to an end as the short term
period wraps up. Paducah only needs 5 more nights, after today,
with lows at or above 70 degrees to tie the yearly record of 67
days set back in 1941.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

The main weather story in the long term portion of the forecast will
be a surge of cooler and drier air for the first part of the holiday
weekend.

A rather strong 500 mb shortwave trough for late summer will cross
the northeastern states on Thursday. An associated push of cooler
and drier air will swing southward across our region late in the
week. 850 mb temps should dip as low as 12 Celsius as the thermal
trough crosses our region Friday. This should translate to highs
around 80 despite full sunshine. Dew points will fall into the 50s.
Overnight lows should fall into the mid and upper 50s in most places
Friday night. In terms of strength and duration, this cool air
intrusion looks similar to last week`s (August 21-23).

The surface high will move to our east over the weekend as the 500
mb ridge redevelops across the middle and eastern sections of the
country. This will bring a gradual return of warmth and humidity,
with dew points near 70 by Labor Day. However, the strength of the
upper high and the relative lack of instability should keep rain out
of the forecast through Labor Day night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Diurnal cumulus clouds have been slow to develop this morning,
possibly due to slightly lower dew points and drier northeast winds.
There will still be some scattered cu this afternoon, which will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating by sunset. Some patchy
shallow ground fog is possible again late tonight and early Tuesday
morning. The slightly lower dew points should mean less in the way
of fog potential. Winds will be light from the northeast to east.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY


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