Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 152021
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
221 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Main concerns in the short term are elevated fire danger Saturday
followed by precipitation chances late Saturday night into Sunday.

The low clouds will continue to drift southward as they dissipate
and shift east of the area at some point this evening. This will
leave behind clear skies overnight with increasing southerly
winds. Temperatures will be tricky tonight. May see a quick drop
with clearing this evening and then some warming overnight through
sunrise. Did not get complicated with non-diurnal trends at this
time, and stayed close to the consensus of 12Z guidance for lows.

South winds will increase quickly Saturday morning, and 10-20 mph
sustained will be the rule in the afternoon. The mixed layer will
be rather shallow, which should cap the gusts at or below 30 mph.
Possibly due to the lesser mixing, the 12Z guidance has trended
downward for highs on Saturday. Everyone should reach the lower to
middle 50s, but more of the area may only see the lower 50s.

There will be some increase in surface dewpoints, which will keep
relative humidity levels mostly in the 35-45% range. The
exception will be the Mark Twain Forest where readings may briefly
drop below 30%. This area will have the weakest winds which
should mitigate any concern for a Red Flag Warning. We will
continue to mention elevated fire danger in the HWO, but do not
plan to issue any extra products for it.

A weakening mid/upper-level storm system will move quickly
northeast through the region late Saturday night and Sunday
morning. The models have definitely trended drier with this system
with QPF now under a quarter inch even along the southern border
of the area. We are still looking for stratiform rain, as the
models continue to develop a nice deep warm layer. Once the upper
system passes by midday Sunday, the moist layer will be confined
to the low-levels, which should preclude any measurable rainfall,
but some patchy drizzle cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and
night.

As for temperatures, southerly winds will prevail throughout the
short term period, so we will remain at or above normal. Did not
stray much from the consensus of guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Strong confidence in the extended until day 6 into 7 when models
diverge a great deal.

There will be an open wave move from the southwest and pass to our
south. This will be accompanied by a front with not much in the way
of cold air in its wake. It will also be very much moisture starved.
So cant rule out a sprinkle or light rain but mostly a non event
other than breezy and cloud cover. The biggest story will be the
above normal temperatures next week with temperatures in the middle
an upper 50s widespread...and with the aid of sunshine could even
see some 60s in some locations. Confidence in the storm system
Thursday night into Friday is high with its arrival but temperatures
and available moisture are very much in question. The deterministic
models vary greatly...approaching ten degree differences. This could
result in very different precipitation types from all liquid to a
mix. Models also vary greatly in moisture amounts from run to run
even with the same models. Plan to hone in on Fridays solution with
successive runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The TAFs are VFR. 4-6kft ceilings will be continue to stream east
southeast across the region this afternoon into the evening, then
it will be clear overnight and Saturday. Ceilings will be most
prevalent through the afternoon and much of the evening in the
northeast, including KEVV and KOWB. Farther southwest toward
southeast Missouri, it may remain scattered. Westerly winds this
afternoon may gust into the teens. South winds will develop
overnight and will become gusty with mixing Saturday morning.
Gusts over 20kts will be common by the end of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS


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