Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210830
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A cold front boundary will continue to move southeast this morning,
entrenching the Northland under a colder air mass today. 925 mb
temperatures will drop between 5 and 15 degrees C below zero across
the Northland this morning, which will lead to high temperatures
today ranging from the lower 20s along the International Border into
the lower 30s over our southern tier of counties. Winds will
continue to be gusty through the morning today, with gusts up to 25
mph possible. The sfc pressure gradient responsible for the gusty
winds will slacken a bit this afternoon, which should allow winds to
decrease.

Chances of lake effect snow showers are also possible today as the
colder air mass moves in. Delta-Ts look to support the lake enhanced
snow showers as 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to the -14
to -16 degrees C range, which would support lake enhanced snow as
Lake Superior water temperatures are around 1 to 2 degrees C.
Analysis of the 1000-850 mb mean layer relative humidities show a
decrease in moisture by the afternoon, so forecast the POPs to
decrease during the afternoon hours today. We do remain in a
northwesterly flow regime through the afternoon, so day shift will
need to re-evaluate these POPs for the afternoon. Snow amounts look
to be light at this time as QPF amounts are expected to remain
light. However, with a snow-to-liquid ratio of approximately 18-
20:1, new snow accumulations could reach up to 1 inch along the
Gogebic Range of northern Iron county. Otherwise, the rest of the
Northland should see sunny skies and dry conditions for the rest of
the day.

Sfc high pressure will then translate from Manitoba/Saskatchewan
region of Canada towards southwestern Ontario Wednesday morning.
This area of high pressure, along with low-level ridging, should
keep the region quiet through the day Wednesday as it advances
across eastern Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon. However, a push of
850-700 mb layer warm air and moisture advection will bring our next
chances of precipitation late Wednesday, which is expected to arrive
near the Brainerd Lakes region after 00z Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Cool high pressure will continue to push off through the Great Lakes
region Wednesday night, as heights build across the central portion
of the continent. A weak system sliding across the upper Midwest
and south central Canada will bring a small chance of showers to
the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A better chance
of precipitation will develop on Thursday afternoon, as a warm
front develops south of the region. Moisture lifting across the
boundary will result in widespread precipitation by Thursday
night, especially across the southern third to half of the CWA.
The models are coming into better agreement concerning the
evolution of the late week system, which at this point favors
central and southern Minnesota, and central and northern
Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota should generally remain dry. The
models start to diverge considerably over the weekend, with the
GFS bringing an increase in QPF well north into portions of
Ontario over the weekend. Overall, a more active pattern is
shaping up, but the main question is how the weather over the
weekend and early next week will be impacted. Confidence is low in
any particular solution during that time. Highs throughout the
period are generally expected to be in the 40s, with some 30s
possible at times near Lake Superior. Lows will range from the 20s
to the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A cold front passing through the region will lead to gusty wind
conditions and brief MVFR ceilings mainly across INL, HIB and
possibly DLH. Otherwise VFR conditions expected.  Gusts ahead of the
front up to 30 kts possible for INL, HIB, and DLH. Winds will remain
breezy from the northwest for much of Tuesday for all locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  10  34  22 /   0   0   0  10
INL  23   2  34  23 /  10   0   0  20
BRD  31  13  37  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  33   9  37  24 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  31   9  36  21 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...WM


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