Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 170744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CANCELLED DFA AS 925 WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AS FAR
EAST AS A KELO TO KIWD LINE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
CONSIDERABLY. WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SOME LOWER VIS WITHIN STRATUS
DECK AS IT OCCUPIES ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG FGEN AREA
FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIE TO COQ. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS THE MODELS
INDICATED THIS AREA WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE
MODELS...THIS PRECIP WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE THROUGH MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD AND EXTEND INTO NW WI OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ALONG WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED
RW- MOVING INTO THAT AREA. ALSO...ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS FOR 2 HOURS
WITH SOME LIGHTNING HITS OCCURRING. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AT 3OOPM...THERE WAS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NE NORTH DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW SOUTH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL
INTO THE 60S. THERE WAS COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE
TO STRONG EAST TO NE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THERE WAS A BAND OF
SHOWERS OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA AND STRETCHING INTO NW MINNESOTA.
THIS APPEARED TO BE LINED UP WITH A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THERE WERE ALSO SOME WEAK STORMS IN THIS BAND.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE STACKED LOW AND ITS OCCLUDED AND COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP NEAR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AN ENHANCED BAND OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES OVER THAT AREA DUE TO THE DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT MODEL INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK TO
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDER. GRANTED...THERE IS SOME
THUNDER AT THIS TIME IN NW MINNESOTA...BUT THERE IS BOTH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLID BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL IT WAS WORTH HAVING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. IT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO ANY BANDS OF
FRONTOGENESIS...SO THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHEN
THOSE BANDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE VERY LOW NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE FROM THE NE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN CLOUDY
SKIES AND THERE WILL BE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S. THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE MIDDLE AND
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN NW FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THE SOUTH SHORE. IN GENERAL...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND NORTH WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH COULD REACH 50 IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH. STRONG WAA WILL USHER IN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE POPS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE NEARER THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. MAJOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE
50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 60S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VERY COMPACT VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WAVE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT EAST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 12-15Z. THIS
SHIFT IN WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. STEADY
PRECIP SHOULD END IN THE DLH AREA BY 09Z..BUT VICINITY SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PUSH
LOWER STRATUS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  46  31 /  50  20   0   0
INL  48  26  46  32 /  40  10   0  10
BRD  52  34  51  34 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  50  36  49  24 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  49  37  47  27 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART






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