Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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861
FXUS63 KDLH 230222
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
922 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Few changes are needed to the ongoing forecast, we still expect
mid to high level cloud to increase from the convection that was
occurring over the Dakotas this evening. We left POPS in our
southwest zones as there is that possibility as 925-850MB winds
turn southerly overnight causing increasing warm air and moisture
advection. There could be some fog in spots later tonight, although
the increase in clouds later tonight should keep it from becoming
widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Weak high pressure will remain in control tonight with clear to
partly cloudy skies and generally light winds tonight. There will
likely be a tendency for more cloud cover with time as the night
progresses, especially south and west, as mid and high level blow
off from convection in the Dakotas moves east. There is also at
least some potential for thunderstorms on the northeast periphery
of an MCS to clip the southwest portions of the CWA toward dawn,
primarily in the Walker to Brainerd areas.

The warm front and CAPE/moisture gradient to our south will begin
to surge northward Saturday in advance of the next upstream wave
to affect the region through Sunday morning. The exact convective
evolution and mode is still very much in doubt, with numerous
complexities that will ultimately affect the sensible weather.
Instability and shear parameters should be supportive of severe
storms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts, and a
secondary threat of hail Saturday afternoon well into Saturday
night. In addition, large precipitable water values will be
increasingly advected into an active warm frontal zone as the day
progresses, and this should result in a somewhat robust heavy rain
threat across the southern half of the Duluth CWA. We have issued
a flash flood watch for all areas roughly along and south of the
highway 2 corridor from noon tomorrow through early Sunday
morning, focusing on the area along and just north of the
retreating surface warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The Northland will have a couple days of near zonal flow, Sunday and
Monday, in the wake of Saturday night`s cold front. Sunday looks
breezy, and both days look mostly sunny and warm with highs in the
lower 80s. There could be showers and weak storms across far
northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and early evening.

The chances of storms returns for the middle of the week, with the
greatest chances across the southern forecast area. Temperatures
should be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 70s, partly thanks
to more cloud cover. There are some indications that high pressure
may nose into the Northland Thursday. We might be able to cut back
on precipitation chances for Thursday if the model trend
continues with subsequent runs. Another surge of moisture may come
late in the week, bringing another round of showers and storms for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A weak ridge of high pressure will move off to the east and north
tonight switching the surface flow from west to northwest to east
to southeast by Saturday morning. Mid to upper clouds will
translate through the area tonight due to strong convection over
the Northern Plains. There is a low chance for a few showers or a
thunderstorm late tonight over mainly west and southwest portions
of the Northland possibly impacting KBRD. There may be some fog
tonight as well and we included a mention at KBRD/KHIB/KHYR. The
increase in clouds may limit the overall fog potential but as
winds go light as they swing around to easterly, we feel there is
enough of threat to include.

The chance for thunderstorms will increase through the day
Saturday and continue into Saturday night. Some of the storms
could be strong to severe producing damaging wind, hail, very
heavy rain. A better chance for MVFR or even IFR conditions will
occur late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  78  61  81 /   0  70  80   0
INL  60  82  61  77 /   0  70  80  20
BRD  66  84  65  83 /  20  70  80   0
HYR  63  86  65  84 /  10  70  80  10
ASX  63  80  64  83 /   0  60  80  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for MNZ025-026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
AVIATION...Melde



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