Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 061146
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
546 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The Northland continues to be impacted with widespread light snow
and gusty west to northwest winds this morning, which has caused
some blowing snow over area roadways. Minnesota DOT road conditions
indicated partially covered roads over the Iron Range and points
northwest due to the blowing snow, but accumulations were very
light, so not expecting much else in terms of travel impact.

The region continues to be under the cyclonic flow of a surface low
pressure system that is slowly moving eastward over the Hudson Bay
region of Canada. The most impactful item of note for today is the
continuation of the Winter Weather Advisory for Iron county due to a
period of prolonged lake effect snow, especially along the higher
elevations of the Gogebic Range. Snow amounts between 5 to 7" are
expected over this area, with some isolated amounts up to 8"
possible. We remain in the tight pressure gradient of this low,
leading to the gusty northwest winds, which should persist through
the day today. The strong northwest winds should also be
sufficiently strong to generate a gravity wave effect over Douglas
and Bayfield counties of northwest Wisconsin this morning and
afternoon. The meso-models were indicating a prolonged period of
snow over this area due to the gravity wave this morning and
afternoon, so increased QPF/PoPs to account for the higher
confidence. Also, expanded the PoPs for inland areas to account for
the persistent cold air advection/cyclonic flow overhead, which
should linger some light snow over most of the Northland through the
morning. NAM/RAP model soundings both indicate some drier air moving
into the region later this afternoon, which should help to diminish
the light snow.

For tonight and Thursday, the highest chances of precipitation
remain over the downstream areas of Lake Superior along the South
Shore. Winds look to weaken during the day Thursday as the surface
pressure gradient eventually slackens. Skies could partially clear
up tonight, especially over north-central Minnesota, which should
allow temperatures to plummet due to radiational cooling. I
decreased the lows slightly over the previous forecast, with the
Northland falling into the single digits below zero for most areas
in northeast Minnesota. Thursday`s highs remain chilly, with highs
in the middle to upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The long term period will be dominated by a major upper level ridge
in the west, and an upper level trough in the east. Meridional flow
will dominate the weather across our area, with several shortwaves
dropping southward in the northerly flow. A cold front will move
across the region Thursday night and Friday, ushering in another
push of Arctic air across the region. It will also bring the chance
of snow showers to the Northland. The focus then shifts to the south
shore of Lake Superior over the weekend and into the upcoming work
week. Highs on Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the teens
to lower 20s, with highs moderating into the 20s to around 30 by
Sunday. Temperatures will then cool off again early next week, with
highs in the teens to around 20 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Scattered snow showers will continue across the Northland today,
with widespread MVFR conditions gradually giving way to VFR as the
day wears on. High pressure will gradually build in later today
and tonight, resulting in higher cloud bases, and eventually
scattered clouds by later tonight and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18   1  17  11 /  30  20   0  30
INL  15  -7  15   7 /  40   0  10  40
BRD  17   3  20  13 /  30  10   0  30
HYR  18   1  17  10 /  40  20   0  30
ASX  21   9  19  13 /  60  60  10  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for WIZ004.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP



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