Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 241945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT WNW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A NRN BRANCH CUTOFF LO OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS WITH A STRONG
SHRTWV IN THIS FLOW DRIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU WYOMING. THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER OVER UPR MI WITH WAA IN TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
ZN TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN
WI...BUT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RA EARLY THIS MRNG STRETCHES FM NCENTRAL
MN ESEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI CLOSER TO THE H85 FNT. THERE ARE MORE SCT
RA SHOWERS DVLPG IN NRN MN WHERE UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET
CORE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY IS AIDING LIFT OF MOISTER AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS THAT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXPANDING PCPN AND THE NE PUSH OF
THE RA IN WI CLOSER TO THE H85 WARM FNT. THE AIR IN ONTARIO IS EVEN
DRIER WITH 00Z PWAT AS LO AS 0.14 INCH AT YPL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZN OVER UPR MI UNDER PERSISTENT UPR DVGC
IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX MOVING ONLY SLOWLY E THRU TNGT. CLOSER APRCH
TNGT OF SHRTWV NOW IN WYOMING WILL INTENSIFY THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCRSG THE HEAVIER RA WL FALL NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RA RELATED TO POSITION OF SHARPER FGEN AND
IMPACT OF DRY AIR TO THE N.

TDAY...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT/UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET CORE TO THE
NE IS FCST TO EXPAND OVER UPR MI TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN TO THE N ACCORDINGLY. SO WL EXPAND HIER
POPS NE THRU THE CWA EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSER
TO THE DEEPER DRY AIR JUST TO THE N. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR...FAVOR THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL FCST. THIS MODEL SHOWS
THE HIER QPF REMAINING CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER WHERE EVEN THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS MORE PERSISTENT AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN/UVV AND WHERE
PWAT IS FCST TO INCRS TO AOA 1 INCH /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/. THIS
FCST IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION OF AXIS OF HEAVIER RA FM
NCENTRAL MN INTO NCENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG...THE LOCATION OF WHICH
MAY HINT AT A BNDRY WHICH MAY ACT TO INTERCEPT MSTR INFLOW. WITH THE
CLDS AND RA DVLPG...EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS THAT WL LIKELY
STAY UNDER 40 AT SOME PLACES NEAR LK SUP.

TNGT...WITH SLOW APRCH OF SHRTWV FM THE WSW TNGT...UPR DVGC OVER AND
MSTR TRANSPORT INTO ARE FCST TO INCRS OVERNGT. SO EXPECT HEAVIER RA
TO EXPAND TO THE NE. THE CNDN MODEL STILL SEEMS TO BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN DIMINISHING A BIT WITH THE
SHIFT TO THE NE GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THAT DIRECTION THAT WILL
TEND TO SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN/HEAVIER RA. TOTAL RA THRU
12Z MON WL REACH AS MUCH AS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES NEAR THE WI BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY RAIN...BUT
COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N MAY TURN SOME PRECIP TO SNOW OVER NRN
UPPER MI. HOWEVER...PRECIP IS DIMINISHING AND MOVING OUT WHILE THE
COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN...SO ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

TUE THROUGH NEXT SUN LOOKS COOL AND DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. 850MB TEMPS HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 0C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S) AND WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING S OF UPPER MI THRU MON...EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
SETTLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BEST CHC OF
PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND A LO PRES MOVING E FROM THE PLAINS ALONG A STALLED LO
PRES TROUGH TO THE S...EXPECT NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THRU MON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHERE
GALES TO 35-40 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON WITH A
COASTLINE CONFIGURATION THAT WILL ACCENTUATE THE NE FLOW. EXPANDED
THE GALE WARNING FOR LSZ162 TO INCLUDE LSZ263 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT THRU TUE AS A HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. N TO E WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ON WED AND THU WITH A HI PRES RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



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