Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 170500
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
QUEBEC WITH NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF UPPER MI AS HIGH
PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH
STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING HAD TAKEN OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY TODAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
NRLY FLOW SUSTAINED OVC SKIES OVER MOST OF NRN UPPER MI. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND DAYTIME MIXING HAS BROUGHT MORE CLEARING TO SRN UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE  NRN
GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE BE DELAYED WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NE WINDS PREVAIL...PER
UPSTREAM/SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM/RUC 925-900 MB RH FCST. WITH
ENOUGH CLEARING MIN READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND BUT
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PERSIST...LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S.

SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT THAT THE
COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING BY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING OVERCAST WITH MAINLY JUST SCT/BKN CU INLAND.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO EH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 70S BUT REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S WHERE ENE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON HOW QUICKLY SHRTWV
NOW TRACKING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MSTR WL
ARRIVE AND IMPACT POPS INTO MID WEEK UNDER BLDG UPR RDG.

SUN NGT/MON...SFC HI PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY UNDER RDG AXIS ACRS NW
ONTARIO AT 12Z MON WL DOMINATE AND BRING DRY WX THRU AT LEAST MOST
OF SUN NGT. BUT A GOOD NUMBER OF THE MORE RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER ON SHIFTING THE REMNANT OF THE CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES/ASSOCIATED MSTR UNDER WAD IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE
TO THE E AND TOWARD THE UPR LKS ON MON. SO HAVE INCREASED CLD COVER
AND BROUGHT POPS TO THE E FASTER THAN SHOWN ON THE PREVIOUS FCST...
WITH CHC POPS OVER THE W BY 12Z MON AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE E ON MON
AFTN AS PWAT IS FCST TO INCRS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES UNDER FALLING
HGTS/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE E OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV. CONSIDERING THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE MSTR/STRONGER
SLY FLOW FM THE W...BUMPED UP FCST MIN TEMPS OVER THE W ON SUN NGT.
BUT LOWERED FCST TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
SFC HI/DRIER AIR WITH PWAT UNDER 0.75 INCH/LIGHTER WINDS. WITH AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF MORE CLDS ON MON...OPTED TO LOWER FCST HI TEMPS A
BIT DESPITE FCST H85 TEMPS UP TO 14-15C OVER THE W.

MON NGT INTO WED...WHILE MEAN UPR RDG IS FCST TO BUILD ACROSS ERN
NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W...SHRTWV APRCHG FM
THE W WL DRIFT SLOWLY THRU THE GREAT LKS. UNDER POCKET OF COOLER H5
TEMPS/HIER PWAT UP TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES...THERE WL BE AT LEAST SOME
SCT SHOWERS/A FEW TS ARND DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY OF
THESE SHOWERS WL BE GREATEST DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE AFTN/
EVNG. A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE...WITH HI TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70 RUNNING BLO NORMAL BUT MRNG LO
TEMPS MAINLY 55 TO 60 ABV AVG. IF THE UPR LO EXITS FASTER ON WED...
MORE AFTN SUNSHINE MIGHT ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THEN.

END OF THE WEEK...AS THE SHRTWV MOVING THRU THE LKS SHIFTS AWAY
LATER WED AND HGTS RISE...EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR WED NGT INTO
THU. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV RIDING
ENEWD THRU THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARD NW ONTARIO/THE UPR LKS
MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS/A FEW TS TO THE AREA LATER ON THU INTO FRI.
VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE THIS SHRTWV WL BE SLOWER AND NOT IMPACT THE
AREA UNTIL SAT. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFICS THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST PERIOD...WL RELY ON EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
FCST GENERATION. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL IN THE PRESENCE
OF MEAN UPR RDG TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE WRN TROF.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT
KCMX/KSAW. WITH A GENERAL DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW AT KIWD...NOTHING
MORE THAN SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SO...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
MOVING/DEVELOPING S AND AFFECTING KCMX/KSAW. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KCMX/KSAW NO
LATER THAN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






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