Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

This morning, Upper Michigan was situated between high pressure over
the Northern Plains and low pressure southeast of the Hudson Bay.
Upstream of the area, a weak shortwave began to dig south across
Lake Superior and usher in better cold air advection southward. With
a lingering enhanced pressure gradient and increasing cold air
advection across the region, quasi-breezy winds lingered across
inland areas and especially near the shores of Lake Superior.

The arrival of better cold air advection and remnant upslope flow
will allow ongoing cloud cover to linger and likely become more
widespread this morning as we start to see diurnal heating pick up.
A few areas of light rain/sprinkles are possible early this morning,
but as dry Canadian air continues to drop south, clouds will begin
to dissipate through the afternoon hours from north to south. As the
above mentioned area of high pressure begins to work it`s way into
Upper Michigan later today, breezy winds will subside through the
afternoon and evening hours from west to east. The strongest wind
gusts are expected to be along the shores of Lake Superior, which
will create a high swim risk today for the beaches of Marquette and
Alger Counties. Temperature wise today, it will be a battle between
increased insolation and cold air advection, and in some locations
downslope warming as well. Overall, afternoon high temperatures
should climb into the 60s, with the warmest temperatures expected
across the south central. Given the increasingly dry air mass this
afternoon, wouldn`t be surprised if a few locations reach the 70
degree mark.

Tonight, the combination of dry air, ample boundary layer
decoupling, and mostly clear skies will result in strong radiational
cooling through the overnight and early morning hours. Right now it
is still looking like patchy to widespread frost will be possible
across the interior west early Thursday morning. There is the
potential for mid-level clouds to slow the rate of cooling overnight
along the Wisconsin border as a shortwave digs south across the
Upper Mississippi Valley, but the majority of the thicker clouds are
expected to remain south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

Nam shows a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes 00z Fri with a
shortwave ridge the plains and troughing in the Pacific NW 00z Fri.
The ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes Fri night into Sat. Put
some frost into the forecast for Thu night as lows again dip to the
mid 30s interior west. No real big changes made to the going
forecast overall.

In the extended, troughing remains over the area through this
forecast period as the ECMWF and GFS show. Temperatures will remain
near normal for this forecast period as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 159 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

Aside from some MVFR CIGs at KIWD for the next hour or two, all TAFs
will be VFR through the forecast period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 419 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

Today winds will start off gusty, at speeds of 20 to 30 knots across
much of the lake, and then gradually weaken to around 10 to 20 knots
from west to east later this evening and tonight as high pressure
drops into the Upper Great Lakes region. This area of high pressure
is expected to linger across the region through the end of the week
and weekend. Therefore, expect winds to be less than 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Ritzman
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