214
FXUS63 KMQT 081848
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers mainly end this morning as the low pressure
  system departs. However, slight chances for light showers
  continue over the west into this afternoon.
- Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances
  in the forecast into early next week along with thunderstorm
  chances both Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 519 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Current RAP analysis has the shortwave and sfc low responsible for
the line of showers yesterday and the current comma head of showers
lighting up the radar over the east and Lake Michigan well stacked
over the Mackinac Bridge. As these two features move east today
toward New England, the heavier showers will move east with it this
morning. Additional accumulations this morning are expected between
a few hundreths and 0.3", higher in the east half of Upper MI.
Although the better precip moves out this morning, slight chances
for low impact light showers/drizzle continues throughout the day.
Best chances for precip (~15-20%) are over the east as PWATs show
decent moisture around 0.75" and some weak q-vector convergence
remains. Confidence in timing or exact location of these showers is
low as PoP solutions among the CAMs were not in agreement. Best
consensus was over the western half of the UP earlier in the
afternoon, save for the Keweenaw. Additional accumulations after
sunrise likely will only be a few hundreths at best, so no real
impacts are expected. Any lingering precip should end by this
evening as drier air advects in from the north. With northerly winds
off Lake Superior today, highs near the lake will stay lower in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. The interior and southern half of the UP are
expected to see highs peak in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough extending from New
England down to the central Rockies 12z Thu. There is also a
shortwave in northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu which heads down to Lake
Winnipeg 00z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. Dry and
quiet weather lasts into Fri afternoon. Di no make too many changes
to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern
U.S. and a trough in the central Rockies and ridge on the west coast
12z Sun. There is also a shortwave in south central Canada 12z Sun
that moves into the upper Great Lakes Sun night. A shortwave moves
into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z
Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast
period and will be unsettled with weak systems moving through the
area with one on Sunday and one on Wednesday with a sfc front
hanging around the area as well according to the manual sfc progs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Lower level moisture is mixing out and is being lifted by building
mixed layer. Advection of stabilizing marine layer off of Lake
Superior will also work to limit any cu/stratocu development closer
to the lake this aftn. For IWD/CMX, this stabilizing influence will
allow VFR to prevail this aftn, and VFR will continue tonight. At
SAW, expect stabilizing flow off of Lake Superior to result in MVFR
cigs scattering out to VFR in the next hr or two. VFR will then
continue at SAW tonight. Area of lower level moisture represented by
the stratocu per vis satellite imagery well ne of Lake Superior will
advect sw today and tonight. While some of this moisture will mix
out this aftn, it should contribute to cu/stratocu/MVFR cigs
developing at all terminals after sunrise on Thu. After a few hrs
or so, cloud bases will lift to VFR, or the clouds will scatter out
to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail through tonight
mainly over western and central portions of Lake Superior. After
that, despite wind shifts due to multiple low pressure systems,
winds will remain below 20 knots through Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for LSZ240>242.

  Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-
     244.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07