Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 050816
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS


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