Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
152 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show weakening remnants of a
mid-level low moving across northern Lower MI/Lake Huron. Associated
deformation band of -ra that affected central Upper MI earlier in
the night is shifting e and weakening. Upstream, a couple of
shortwaves, one over the Dakotas and a weaker one over MN, are
generating some sct radar returns to the w, but little in the way of
pcpn per sfc obs.

As upstream shortwaves shift e today, some -ra may streak across the
fcst area. Forcing is weak, but presence of upstream radar returns
along with a number of models indicating some pcpn suggest some low
pops are warranted except over the Keweenaw. If there is any pcpn,
it will shift e and se with time today, exiting the e early this
evening. Temps are currently hovering right around freezing at many
locations, so not out of the question that there could be spotty
icing early this morning where pcpn occurs. Expect high temps in the
mid 30s to lower 40s today. If low clouds hold thru the day
everywhere, temps will not get out of the mid 30s.

Dry weather will follow tonight as sfc high pres ridge builds into
the Upper Great Lakes. Increasingly anticyclonic low-level flow
should help to break up or decrease coverage of low clouds where
they still linger after this aftn. Temps should fall back to the mid
20s to lower 30s. Will be colder if skies clear out in some

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

Tranquil conditions expected Tue and Wed before possible storm
system brings wintry precip back to the region late this week. High
pressure over northern Canada gradually expands a ridge toward Upper
Great Lakes. Potential there may be sct-bkn low clouds over cntrl
Upper Michigan on Tue with the NE winds with the high, but seems
that overall dry airmass with the high will cut down this potential.
Even with mostly sunny skies, NE onshore winds results in highs only
in the mid to upper 30s near Lk Superior Tue into Wed. Farther
inland though mixing to h85 with the sunshine should result in highs
reaching the upper 40s near the WI border and possibly into lower
50s at LNL and IMT with the sunshine and little if any snow cover
for those areas.

Uncertainty still present for late week system. ECMWF and GEM still
showing southern stream upper trough phasing with northern stream
trough across the Great Lakes late Thu into Fri. Result is sfc low
over the southern Plains Thu morning lifting across the western Ohio
valley Thu and to the central Great Lakes vcnty of Lk Huron by Fri
morning. Main surge of precip in this setup would arrive later Thu
aftn over the south cwa and spread over all but far western cwa Thu
night into Fri morning. Precip would be enhanced on northwest side
of sfc low due to right entrance region of upper jet streak northern
Ontario to New England. GFS still mainly south of here with the
system but compared to 24 hr ago there is trend farther north with
upper low/sfc low and associated precip which is now as far north as
central WI to northern lower MI (24 hr ago GFS showed no qpf even
into southern WI or southern lower MI). Another trend emerging from
the farther north ECMWF and GEM is a cooler/snowier idea. QPF from
GEM and ECMWF and assuming most precip falls as snow would suggest
some areas of cwa could see need for at least an advy late Thu into
Fri morning. Won`t emphasize that too much yet though given the
model differences in handling this system. Only change to blended
consensus at this point was to increase sky cover Thu into Fri and
lower temps slightly.

Behind the system for the weekend seems area will be affected by
northern branch of split flow regime. Just kept with blended
consensus with various solutions on strength of any systems by that

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

Challenging forecast with the evolution of low-clouds due to
lingering low-level moisture under a strengthening inversion.
Expectations are that enough dry air will filter across the western
U.P. to scatter ongoing IFR ceilings at KCMX and KIWD by this
evening, and possibly KSAW by late evening. However, another surge
of low-level moisture from the north late tonight into Tuesday
morning will likely bring back low-end MVFR and possibly high-end
IFR ceilings. Also, shallow radiational fog will be possible at all
sites for a period late tonight if clouds clear enough.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 444 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

With no significant weather systems affecting the Upper Great Lakes
this week, no gales are expected on Lake Superior. In fact, winds
will mostly be under 20kt. Depending on the track/strength of low
pres tracking from the southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes late
this week, Thu/Fri is on the only period that may have higher winds
than currently fcst.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
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