Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. DURING THE SHORT
TERM...TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MANITOBA IS SPREADING AN AREA
OF CI/CS AND HIGH BASED AC/AS FROM SRN MANITOBA/ND INTO NRN MN AND
ADJACENT NRN ONTARIO. WHILE RADARS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
RETURNS...THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN THAT IS REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR BELOW THE HIGH BASED
CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL POSE A
COMPLICATION TO THE TEMP FCST TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS HAVE
BEEN STIRRING ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW OBS SHOWING TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...MID 30S TO LWR 40S ARE THE RULE AT 08Z. TO THE
W...WEAKER GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED BETTER DECOUPLING. SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. 23F AT THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST NOTED SO FAR.

FOR TODAY...BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 60F IN THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM LAKE MODERATION. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE ENE...LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
DOMINATE TODAY. HIGHS AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD...WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA
TODAY. MAY END UP WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN...THOUGH MUCH OF IT
SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE.

RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT REALLY LOOKS BETTER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO CALM OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER TONIGHT IS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
ALL THIS POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
CLOUDS WILL POSE A COMPLICATION. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
UPPER LAKES...MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THICK/EXTENSIVE THE CLOUDS WILL BE...FAVORED THE LOWER RANGE OF AVBL
GUIDANCE RATHER THAN GOING AT OR BLO THE LOWEST NUMBERS. RESULT
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FROST...ESPECIALLY JUST INLAND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY FALL TO 27/28F DEGREES WHILE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S WILL BE MORE COMMON AT MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS.
WITH ONGOING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD SITUATION TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE HIGH WILL
BE CENTERED IN QUEBEC...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD PUT HIGHS BACK TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ONE FINAL NIGHT OF FROST
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WHERE WINDS WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SERIES OF WAVES THAT IT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY...THAT AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SINCE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA. THAT IDEA (TRIMMING BACK POPS) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY (AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS)...AS THE NEXT PRECIP OPPORTUNITY LOOKS
TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN EXPECTED. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (AND LEAD TO A WRAPPED UP LOW).
NOW WITH BOTH GFS/ECMWF ON BOARD WITH A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THAT PERIOD (EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES
OVER 1.3"). THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPING THE BEST
INSTABILITY FOCUSED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN DIMINISH
HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EVEN HEADING
THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD GET INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE TODAY
OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...IF THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN
THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU ISLAND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-006-012-013.

  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON


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