Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
157 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a deep 500 mb trough over the ern U.S.
this morning and a shortwave over Alberta. This shortwave moves to
the east and affects the area late tonight into Thu morning.
Shortwave ridging then begins to build into the area Thu afternoon.
Deeper moisture and dynamics move through Thu morning. Moisture is
limited and will have slight chance to low chance pops as this moves
through with little snow accumulation expected. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast and looks quiet.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

...Potential winter storm is still on track for Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday...

The early portion of the extended forecast, Thursday through
Saturday, is set to be fairly quiet. There are a couple chances of
snow or rain/snow chances as shortwaves slide through the area and
temperatures steadily warm. The first shot of mainly light snow
would be Thursday as a stronger/fast moving shortwave slides through
the north half of the U.P. the best moisture/forcing will likely
stay north of the U.P.; however, the Keweenaw and locations along
Lake Superior could see a quick dusting of snow through the day
Thursday. Another wave is expected to slide through the area Friday
and again, the better forcing is expected to stay mainly over Lake
Superior. Not out of the question to see some rain/snow showers over
the Keweenaw.  That shortwave will likely produce mixed
precipitation as warmer air continues to advect northward on
southerly flow into the Upper Great Lakes. Actually, it looks like
high temperatures will warm above normal with upper 30s to near 40
degree readings possible Friday and Saturday.

Attention then turns to a potential winter storm for Sunday
afternoon possibly lingering through Tuesday morning. Models are in
good agreement on the track of the system, developing the low over
the Plains/mid Mississippi Valley Sunday morning, and then lifting
the low north and eastward into northern Lower Michigan. This would
be a very favorable track for heavy snow potential across central
and western Upper Michigan. The system would likely have plenty of
moisture to work with as the southerly flow is progged to be wide
open to the Gulf of Mexico moisture source. If this all works out as
each of the models are showing, there could be several inches of
snow across much of western and central Upper Michigan. The features
that would be responsible for this potential winter storm are well
outside of the more densely populated observation platforms, so it
is expected that the exact patch of the low and associated heaviest
snow band will vary over the next few days. Additionally, on the
east side of the low there will likely be some mixed precipitation
along with a potential dry slot, which will both have an impact on
snow totals. Again, confidence in forecasting this potential winter
storm will increase over the next couple days as the system is
better sampled. At this point, it will definitely be worth keeping
an eye on for the potential of widespread heavy snow Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday.

Tuesday and beyond, a consensus of the model blends was used. This
gives intermittent chance of lake effect snow; however, exact
placement will be dependent upon wind direction and placement of the
aforementioned stronger storm system.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

LLWS will be an issue at KIWD and KSAW into this evening. Could see
some blowing snow at these sites, but not confident that winds will
be strong enough to cause significant reductions in visibilities.

At KCMX, strong winds will lead to blowing snow. Currently have
visibilities bottoming out around 2 miles, but confidence in exact
visibility is limited. The blowing snow will end this evening as
winds diminish.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 157 PM EST WED JAN 17 2018

W to WSW gales will diminish this evening. Next gale event looks to
be late Sun night across western Lake Superior with northeast gales
expected. North to northeast gales across Lake Superior Mon through
Tue are expected as well.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ267.

  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ265-266.

  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-

Lake Michigan...


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