Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 200940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS BACK UNDER THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NOW
CLOSED LOW OF 998MB JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIAN BAY THAT LEAD
TO THIS TRANSITION CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A 1002MB TRAILS TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO
FEATURES HAS LED TO THAT WNW-NW WIND LAKE EFFECT FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN
CWA AND CONTINUING AT THE PRESENT TIME. OVER THE WEST...LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
A COUPLE STRONGER BANDS SEEN ON THE KDLH RADAR AND AFFECTING KIWD
AND ALSO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND
WHITE PINE. DID RECEIVE SOME REPORTS OF GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS AND
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR YESTERDAY
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIMITED SNOWFALL REPORTS LAST EVENING MAKES
IT DIFFICULT TO GET PERSPECTIVE ON HOW MUCH SNOW HAS FALLEN THUS
FAR...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME WARNING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS HAS STRETCHED SOME
OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO IRON/DICKINSON/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES...BUT THEY HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE GOT FARTHER AWAY FROM
THEIR SOURCE. OVER THE KEWEENAW...KMQT RADAR SHOWS A STRONGER BAND
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KEWEENAW COUNTY (
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAC LA BELLE) BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH. OVER THE
EAST...THERE WAS A GOOD BURST OF SNOW YESTERDAY EVENING AS A MESO
LOW CAME ONSHORE. THERE WAS ALSO A STRONGER BAND (AIDED BY A LAND
BREEZE) JUST NORTHEAST OF MUNISING EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT IT
HAS NOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE MESSY. WOULD THINK THAT THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE BAND COMING FROM THE KEWEENAW AND THE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE MARQUETTE COUNTY SHORE SHOULD HELP
THAT BAND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
FARTHER WEST...THERE HAS BEEN A LULL OVER LUCE COUNTY FOR THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST STARTING TO DROP SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHEAST OF CARIBOU ISLAND.

NOW FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND QUICKLY DRAG THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR A
PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AND ALSO INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS MORNING IN THAT AREA WITH SNOWFALL RATES
REACHING 1-2 INCH/HOUR AT TIMES. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INDICATED ON THE
MODELS (15-17KFT) SEEM TO BE FAIRLY REASONABLE...WITH THE KMQT RADAR
ABLE TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND
14-15KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
UNDER THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES PER HOUR FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING (MOST LIKELY OVER
NORTHEAST LUCE COUNTY). ONCE THAT TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS
THROUGH...EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...EXPECT THE NORMAL WIND PARALLEL BANDS AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST BAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE AROUND MUNISING OR PICTURED
ROCKS AREA...AS THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW ATTEMPTS TO BACK SLIGHTLY AND
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IN THE WARNED
AREA.

OVER THE WEST...SHOULD SEE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND PULLS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EAST OVER
MINNESOTA TODAY AND BEGIN TO LOWER THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THUS...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 13KFT
EARLY THIS MORNING TO 9KFT BY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE COMPRESSED WITHIN THE DGZ AND
LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT (WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING
TO 5KFT). WILL FOCUS ON THOSE AREAS FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT
AS THEY SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE
IMPACT OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND GREATLY DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY (LAKE INDUCED EQL FALLING TO 6KFT BY THAT TIME WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS). SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WHITE PINE. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS.
THE KEWEENAW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT AS THE GENERALLY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BECOMES FOCUSED THERE. AS SAID ABOVE...COULD BE
SOME WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHITE
PINE...BASED OFF RADAR YESTERDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT SURE IF THERE WOULD BE MUCH
ADVANTAGE TO IT WITH THE EXPECTED DIMINISHMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

AS A FINAL NOTE...LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE THE 6TH DAY IN A ROW OF
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE. THE RECORD FOR
TODAY IS 18 DEGREES (SET IN 1969 AND 1978)...WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AT 14 DEGREES. THAT STREAK LOOKS TO END TOMORROW AS THE
RECORD IS 15 DEGREES AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR 19 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT PERSISTENTLY BLO/MUCH BLO
NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PACIFIC FLOW PLOWS INTO THE WRN
PORTION OF NAMERICA AND FORCES THE ERN TROF OUT. CHANGE OCCURS
QUICKLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI RISE A TREMENDOUS 400+ METERS
FROM TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. SO...AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY LONG STRETCH
OF COLD WEATHER FOR NOV (RECORD BREAKING SUBFREEZING STREAK AT NWS
MQT FOR NOV)...A QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE PACIFIC FLOW SURGING INTO THE WRN CONUS
WILL CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM TROF THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A DEEP SFC LOW LIFTING FROM TX TO UPPER MI (PRES BOTTOMS OUT
IN THE 970S OVER THE UPPER LAKES). WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THAT
WILL BE OCCURRING...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP SYSTEM ON THE
FRONT SIDE WILL BE RAIN FOR THE FCST AREA WITH PCPN AMOUNTS MDT TO
POTENTIALLY HVY. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE WARMUP THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD PATTERN WILL
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN OVER WRN
NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC WHICH WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL S TOWARD
THE CONUS AGAIN. WHETHER THIS IS A PATTERN THAT WILL AGAIN BECOME
PERSISTENT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS GEM ENSEMBLES AND CFSV2 RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A LOT OF FLUCTUATION FARTHER OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WI BY 12Z
FRI...RESULTING IN BACKING/MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. THESE BACKING WINDS...ENHANCED BY SFC LAND
BREEZE FLOW...WILL PUSH LES OVER THE W NORTHWARD. ONLY THE KEWEENAW
WILL BE AFFECTED BY ANY LINGERING LES BY FRI MORNING. OVER THE
E...INVERSIONS ONLY FALL BACK TO AROUND 6KFT...AND THE DGZ REMAINS
WELL CENTERED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. COMBINED WITH INCREASING
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE...LES MAY STILL BE LOCALLY HVY AT
TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E OF
MUNISING. OVER THE INTERIOR W AND SCNTRL...EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST 30-35PCT OF NORMAL ENHANCING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS BLO 0F SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON WHERE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

ON FRI...ERN TROF WILL QUICKLY BE SHIFTING E WITH FLOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BACK SW...PUSHING LAST OF ANY LINGERING LES OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BY AFTN. UNDER INCREASING WAA...850MB TEMPS RISE ROUGHLY 10C ACROSS
THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY FRI. WITH THIS THE FIRST DAY OF THE
WARMUP...THE WARMING WILL BE MORE NOTED ALOFT THAN DOWN NEAR THE
SFC...AND THE HIGH STABILITY SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES SUCH.
MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LWR 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

FRI NGT/SAT...WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW BTWN HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE E COAST AND LOW PRES MOVING
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME VERY
LIGHT PCPN OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE LONGER DURATION OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FAVOR BETTER MOISTENING SHOWN ON FCST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTENING PRECEEDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND THEN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITING ONCE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...NOTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER THE E AND SCHC ELSEWHERE. SINCE THE
MOISTENING ENDS UP LOW BASED AND SFC BASED MOIST LAYER WILL BE
WARMER THAN -10C...PCPN MAY END UP MOSTLY AS -DZ/-FZDZ. EXPECT A
RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL TEMP DROP FRI NIGHT WITH THE MINS
OCCURRING MOSTLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD THEN RISE SLOWLY THRU
MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER INCREASING SSW WINDS AND CLOUDS. TEMPS ON
SAT SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.

FOR MANY DAYS...THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF A DEEP LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN NARROWING IN ON THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAPID TROF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME POSSIBLE ISSUES WITH INTERACTION OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NNE FROM TX AND UPSTREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOW QUITE GOOD...AND TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SIMILAR AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (W WITH SFC LOW
TRACK). INCORPORATION OF PREVIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS WITH
TODAYS 12Z RUNS SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER TX SAT WILL LIFT
NNE AND DEEPEN INTO THE MID 970S MB BY THE TIME IT REACHES CNTRL
UPPER MI MON MORNING. COLUMN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ALL THE PCPN
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN WITH MDT AMOUNTS
LIKELY...AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER LAKES. EXPECT RAIN TO SURGE N INTO THE AREA SUN
AFTN AND CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM THEN DRIFTS NE AND COLUMN
COOLS...INCREASINGLY DEFINED DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD WILL DEVELOP
AND OVERSPREAD AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI. WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING
SUFFICIENTLY...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY...SO AFTER
THE RAIN...THERE MAY END UP BEING A PERIOD OF MDT TO POTENTIALLY HVY
SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT ALONG WITH BLUSTERY
NW WINDS. THE SNOW/WIND WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA...BUT
WITH DEFORMATION PCPN TENDING TO LIFT NE...SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN OVER THE W.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN W TO E TUE/TUE NIGHT. THERE`S REASONABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH ON WED...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD.
COULD PUT IN A LOT OF TEMPO GROUPS IN AT CMX AND IWD...BUT THIS
WOULD NOT DO ANY GOOD AND WENT WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS AS
CONDITIONS WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE WITH A FEW
TIMES OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHEN THEY BRIEFLY
MOVE THROUGH. AT SAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GALES TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN LAKE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NW GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
     085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.

  GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ263-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KLUBER





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