Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 251955
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /1004MB AT THE SFC/ OVER
FAR WRN ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF THE
MN ARROWHEAD TO JUST W OF ASHLAND WI. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT IS...WARM. CURRENT SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
OVER WRN UPPER MI TO THE MID 70S E /DUE TO THE W-E CLEARING OF
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER/ WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS RESULTING HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...BUT WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS
SHOULD HELP WITH THE EXCESS WARMTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL BE
TOO DRY WITH TOO STRONG OF A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN
ANY PRECIP. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN
UPPER MI THIS EVENING WHERE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME OVER
THE NERN CWA.

24 HOURS FROM NOW...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 7-10C COOLER THAN NOW...SO
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NW TO THE MID 70 SE UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET AND GENERALLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS
ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
ARE A COUPLE MINOR ITEMS TO NOTE. FIRST...THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
COULD TRY TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT FEEL THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INHIBIT
ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WILL JUST SHOW PASSING
MID CLOUDS AS THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER ITEM IS THE MUCH
COOLER AIR BELOW 850MB THAT WILL BE SURGING INTO THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SETUP A RETURN TO ANOTHER COOLER
PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA. WITH THE COLD AIR JUST
STARTING TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST WILL
STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE AREAS OVER THE
WEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S WITH THE
GUSTY WESTERLY WIND OFF THE LAKE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
(AIDED BY THE MORNING MID CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING AND MODEL AVERAGE
850MB TEMPS AROUND 6-7C)...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. ALONG WITH THAT COOLER
AIR ON TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. THINK THE
COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE
DIURNAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE FOCUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MODELS STILL VARYING ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA AND WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS
ALSO VARYING ON THE LOCATION THIS WAVE...SO WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF
GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS (SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCES) WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CNTRL/E AND ESPECIALLY NE GIVEN THE HUMID AIR
MASS AND PCPN THAT HAS OCCURRED. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE
FOG FROM W TO E. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 15-25KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTN AND THEN
OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TUE NIGHT THRU THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI DESPITE THE HIGH MOVING
TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





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