Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 272005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF MN AND ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO SINK S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY. THE SFC
LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH THE 500MB TROUGH TRAILING
ACROSS E UPPER MI THROUGH SE WI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO STICK
AROUND TOO MUCH LONGER. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS LINGERING BEHIND THE DRY
AIR SHIFTING IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PW VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 1.15IN /110-125 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ WILL FALL TO AROUND
0.5-0.6IN BY 06Z MONDAY /50-60 PERCENT OF NORMAL/. KEPT WITH THE
LOWER TEMP GUIDANCE STILL FOR TONIGHT...WITH SEVERAL OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE N PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDS IT/S REACH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE MORNING ON. WENT MINIMAL ON THE CLOUDS
FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR ISLE ROYALE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN PUSHING S OUT
OF W HUDSON BAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NW
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THEY MAY CLIP ISLE ROYALE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CAUGHT IN A COOLER N-NW FLOW
ALOFT BTWN A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NR JAMES BAY/WRN QUEBEC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY LOW INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN FCST FOR
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR CWA TUE INTO FRI.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS LIKE TUE WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND A
SFC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA INITIATION.
WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL CWA. UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS AND SKINNY CAPE DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SVR STORMS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY LATE WEEK ON
EXACT TIMING/MODEL RESOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES. ALSO A SFC RDG RESIDING
OVER THE AREA MAY INHIBIT SHRA DEVELOPMENT SO WILL JUST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA WED AND FRI. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS PATTERN DUE TO LACK OF GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION AND PWATS REMAINING GENERALLY BTWN 65-90 PCT OF NORMAL
THRU PD.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
GRADUALLY WEAKENING PUSHING EAST OF THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FM THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL...WOULD
EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO 12-14C BY LATE
SUNDAY. DUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING ALOFT...EXPECT ONLY DIURNAL
ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT AT BEST...MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE IFR CEILINGS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MN...AND SPLIT ISLE ROYAL IN HALF. LOOK
FOR THE LINE TO CROSS ALL 3 TAF SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO
00Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY END N TO S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE SE CORNER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN N PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...SLOWLY
EXPANDING S. AS THE LOW MOVES/DEEPENS ACROSS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEING TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






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