Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 080840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW...ASSISTED BY THE 100-115KT 250MB JET NOSING
IN ACROSS LAKE MI. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH 0.5 TO 2.5IN SHOWING UP OFF THE LATEST RADAR SCANS. LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY EXIT E THROUGH THE MORNING.

AS A CONTRAST TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THAT WERE REALIZED ON
MONDAY...60S WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW 50S RIGHT ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR DESPITE THE EARLY JULY SUN. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE
NW OFF MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AN AVERAGE
OF 6C BY THE END OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS/ ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER RAIN IS FCST...WITH TOTALS AROUND 0.10IN OR
LESS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT JET DYNAMICS OR CAPE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
REINFORCED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BY A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG) THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FIRST
WAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF IT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TRANSITION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (700-500MB AT 6-6.5C/KM) THOUGHT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TO 6-7C ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL LEAD TO A BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE U.P. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER VALUES EAST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAYBE REACHING 70 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS
AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT OVER SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH LAKE
BREEZES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE
WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THAT NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH A LOW EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD
AND THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT
MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY BEHIND THIS WAVE/FRONT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE LASTEST TREND IS FOR IT TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES INTO EARLY MORNING. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR TUE MORNING BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID TUE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL AGAIN ARRIVE IN THE EVENING THERE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN. CIGS WILL GO TO LIFR IN THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AT
SAW WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LASTING THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVE. AT
KCMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY TUE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE AFTERNOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN 25KTS OR BELOW OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC TODAY. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY ON SATURDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






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