Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 282043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
343 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 516 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough over
much of the wrn CONUS, from the Rockies into the wrn plains. A
closed low was noted over the Dakotas. At the surface, se winds were
increasing between a 977 mb low over ern SD and a ridge from Quebec
into the mid-Atlantic states. Gales were already occurring over
eastern and north central Lake Superior early this morning.

The short range models still in good agreement with the progression
of area of rain across central and eastern Upper Mi this morning
ahead of initial shortwave moving through northern Wi and assoc
surge of 295k-305k isentropic lift. Expect this band of rain now
over central Upper Mi to taper off later this morning with weakening
isentropic lift as it moves through eastern Upper Mi. Patchy fog
this morning should dissipate with arrival of pcpn. Although the mid
level moisture will depart during the day, continued low level
isentropic lift will maintain some light rain or drizzle through
most of the day, with lower amounts and coverage near Lake Superior
where the strongest downslope wind prevails. SE winds will be gusty
today especially for downsloping areas along Lake Superior where
gusts could reach near 30 mph. Expect temps today in the lower to
mid 40s.

Deep layer q-vector convergence and moisture fields suggest a better
chance for widespread rain tonight as a more vigorous shortwave and
associated sfc trough lifts northeast through the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Will maintain categorical pops especially over the central
and eastern portions of the cwa closer to best dynamics with
shortwave. Expect there could be some mid-lvl drying and tapering
off of pcpn over the sw half of Upper Mi late tonight on backside of
sfc-850 mb trough passage. Temps will not fall much from Mondays
highs due to abundant cloud cover...expect min temps in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

The low pressure system currently W of the region will weaken and
slowly meander across the area through Thu, with a couple other
waves possible coming down the back side of the system later in the
week. Colder air moves in late this week into Sat as an upper trough
moves out of NE Canada and into northern Ontario and Quebec. Early
next week is quite uncertain as models show differing solutions with
a system moving through the region.

Ptype will be driven largely by wet-bulb zero height, meaning more
snow during the night and over the higher terrain, and snow chances
will increase through the end of the week as the airmass gradually
cools. Best QPF through Sat looks to be on Thu when a shortwave
moves around the back side of the departing system and the SFC
trough swings through. However, mild SFC temps will keep precip
mixed or at least limit snowfall amounts with snow melting some as
it falls. Still some uncertainty there, but not a big concern at
this time.

Looking way out there, deterministic models are suggesting a much
colder trend beyond 10 days out, which is backed up with the CFS.
CFS also builds a large mass of very cold air across AK and the NW
Territories toward the end of Dec, which would signal a significant
pattern change.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Low level moisture streaming into the region ahead of a deep low
pressure and frontal system will maintain the low clouds into early
Tuesday. The downslope component with the se to s flow will keep
cigs mainly in the MVFR range at IWD and CMX. However, IFR/LIFR cigs
are expected at SAW. Light rain moving in again late today and
tonight along with fog will drop vsby into the IFR range. Drier air
moving into the area behind the occluded front as winds veer sw will
bring improving conditions by mid to late Tuesday morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 516 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Low pressure continues to deepen across the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This has resulted in a tight pressure gradient across
the northern Great Lakes leading to gales across much of Lake
Superior. Gales to 40kt are expected across all of Lake Superior,
but the gradient will slacken earliest today across the far west.
Further east the gradient will remain tight, with gales lingering
through tonight. The low pressure system will linger over the Upper
Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. However the pressure gradient is not
expected to be as tight and should allow winds to diminish below
25kt by Tuesday afternoon. Northerly winds to around 25 knots may
develop Thursday as the slow moving low moves to the east of Lake
Superior into Quebec.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for

  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ243-244-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250.



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