Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH PROBABLY ALL BUT KMNM. TEMPS ARE DOWN
TO UPR TEENS FAR WEST AND ON THE KEWEENAW AND AROUND 20 OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NCNTRL. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL REST OF DAY
OVER ALL THE CWA. RADAR AND IR SATELLITE INDICATE MAIN ENHANCEMENT
DUE TO SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY OUT. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
AND LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER FAR WEST WITH 1-2 MILE VSBY
ALL MORNING AT KIWD AND HAS ALSO INCREASED WITHIN LAST COUPLE HOURS
OVER NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. DECENT DRYING IS NOTED UPSTREAM...BUT THERE
IS ALSO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH ALONG WITH
ARRIVAL OF H85 THERMAL TROUGH PER RAP/NAM...WILL LEAD TO INVERSIONS
RAISING UP SLIGHTLY AND H925-H8 MOISTURE PERSISTING. OVERALL THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ONLY SLOWLY VEERS FM NNW TO MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE AFTN...THEN REMAINS NORTHERLY THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION
FAVORS FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN AND ALSO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA ARRIVES IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
LOWER INVERSIONS FURTHER TO BLO 3KFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH LES
BY THAT TIME.

UNTIL THEN THOUGH...OPTED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUTNIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH FAVORABLE
NORTH FLOW CONTINUING AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSIONS UP TO 5-6KFT
WITH DELTA T/S NEARING 20C. A BIT OF ENHANCEMENT AS WELL DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY VEER FURTHER TO NNE-NE AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. SWITCHING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW THE LES
IN THE WEST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE EVENING THOUGH AS ALL FACTORS COME TOGETHER MORE IDEALLY
AT LEAST FOR A TIME.

OTHER PLACE THAT THERE IS CONCERN IS HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY. OVERALL AREAS FM THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS TO NEGAUNEE AND
EVEN AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS SKANDIA/CARLSHEND MAY SEE SIMILAR SNOW
AMOUNTS THIS EVENING AS FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. YET...WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE NORTH MAY TAKE LONGER AS RAP/NAM DO NOT SHOW A NORTH
WIND AT MQT UNTIL 03Z. SINCE SNOW THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN TOO
SIGNIFICANT OVER NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND WORST CONDITIONS WOULD NOT
BE UNTIL AFTER EVENING COMMUTE...WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO AN ADVY AT THIS TIME. DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS AFTN. SNOW ALL OVER THE
AREA WILL BE FLUFFY AS MOIST LAYER WITH THE LES WILL BE FIRMLY
WITHIN THE DGZ. SLR/S LIKELY WILL BE WELL OVER 20:1 TONIGHT.

UPDATED GRIDS ARE PUBLISHED AND UPDATED WSW STATEMENT IS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FCST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
GOING ON WITH THE WINDS...AND EVEN THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER E ALGER
COUNTY. AS A RESULT...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
ONGOING FCST. JUST PUSHED IT CLOSER TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE STRONG W WINDS AT CMX WILL SOON BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW
/AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT IWD FOR THE LAST HOUR OR SO/...IN RESPONSE
TO THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING E OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AND STRETCH FROM WHITEFISH POINT DOWN TO NEAR
IMT BY 12Z...AND E OF THE CWA BY 18Z AS N WINDS TAKE HOLD. 850MB
TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -6C AT 09Z WILL STEADILY FALL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO -16C W AND -9C E BY 18Z. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
TO AROUND -17 TO -19C OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WILL
KEEP SNOW GOING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
W. MID LEVEL DRYING/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN MORE
LIMITED LES LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT...BEHIND THE LAST SHORTWAVE THAT SWINGS IN AFTER 03Z
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN EVENT IN THE LONG TERM IS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WHERE WIND
WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

TAKING CARE OF SHORTER TERM BUSINESS FIRST...SHOULD SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT LES UNDER N-NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AS
LOW AS -19C. THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE EASILY SUFFICIENT FOR
LES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR WITH A 1028MB SFC HIGH
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON FRI WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TO A
MINIMUM AND DIMINISHING COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
BECOME SUNNY ON FRI BUT HIGH TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
20S.

WITH THE SFC HIGH SITTING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA FRI NIGHT AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -12C...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AND SO WILL VERY COLD MIN
TEMPS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE COLDEST END OF GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT AS A 995MB SFC
LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SW
FLOW AND WARMER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH THE POTENT SCENTRAL CANADA LOW
AS IT TREKS OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SUN...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. TIMING IS PRETTY WELL AGREED ON BY THE MODELS...SHOWING
THE SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SUN. STRENGTH AND TRACK ARE STILL NOT AGREED ON WELL...WITH
THE 00Z/26 GFS CONTINUING TO BE STRONGER AND FARTHER S THAN THE
00Z/26 ECMWF. IF THE TIMING DOES NOT CHANGE...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...SO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THE CONSENSUS STRENGTH/TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER...FARTHER S
SOLUTION WORKS OUT...NOT ONLY WOULD MORE PRECIP BE EXPECTED BUT MORE
OF THAT PRECIP WOULD BE SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. STILL A LOT THAT NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT WITH
PTYPE/AMOUNT...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT AREA WIDE
PRECIP. AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE
SYSTEM STANDS NOW. THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND STRONG W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS
EXCEEDING 50KTS IN BOTH CASES. RAN NON-STANDARD WIND GUSTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH GUST POTENTIAL...COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 45MPH
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE WARM TEMPS...RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WINDS SHOULD AT WARM THE
SNOWPACK QUITE A BIT AND HELP FACILITATE WHAT SHOULD BE A BETTER
MELT WEEK FOR THE SNOWPACK.

NW FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN CONUS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH APPRECIABLE PRECIP UNTIL THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...BUT DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THAT SYSTEM. WILL BE A WARMER WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S AND LOWS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MID WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SHOULD BE A
BETTER MELTING WEEK FOR THE SNOW PACK GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SETTLING INTO A TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT AND PROBABLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. NORTH WINDS FAVOR
KIWD AND KSAW FOR LOWER MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY. DRIER AIR ARRIVING
MAY DIMINISH THE SNOW LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ARRIVAL OF EVEN COLDER
AIR AND MORE MOISTURE WITH A DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING. EXPECT IMPROVING TREND AT
KCMX TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING SINCE THE NORTH
WIND IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECT NW TO N GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO
RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. A LOW OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT E AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT...ALLOWING A HIGH OVER MANITOBA TO MOVE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

EXPECT THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE SE TO
NEAR LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON SUNDAY. A LOW OVER NW ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL THEN MOVE
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO FOLLOW INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS OF 35KTS TO NEAR 40KT GUSTS
OF THE SW TO W WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND LINGER OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NW
AT 35KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248-249-265-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF



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