Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE NW STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN WI TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT ON RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
EAST. ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT COOLING AND LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FROST...THOUGH A FEW
PATCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EAST HALF.

FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA...LEADING TO OVERALL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST PRESSURE
FALLS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STEADY 15-20MPH
SOUTH TO SSW WIND ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. 1KM AGL WINDS APPROACHING 50S KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ENOUGH
MIXING OCCURS...SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC.
CURRENTLY THINKING GUSTS OF 30-35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT IF ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE
AREA...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DELAYED AND CUT BACK ON POPS SOMEWHAT
AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET COUNTERACTS SOME OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER NOON...AND THE CENTRAL CWA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
HALF.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BRING TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER
MI SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS (IFR CIGS) SPREADING N TO KSAW TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WHILE S WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING AT KIWD...LOW
MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THERE AS WELL TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THRU MID
MORNING. WITH FLOW UNDERGOING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPING BEFORE
REACHING KCMX...OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF
WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS ESPECIALLY
FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS HIGHER
THERE THIS AFTN. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF TROF...
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE AT
KCMX/KIWD DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SHIFTING EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI
SHORELINE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND A FAIRLY STABLE NEAR-WATER
LAYER PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER





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