Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL 00Z MON WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS BY 00Z WED WHILE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT DID WARM UP
THINGS A BIT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST 12Z WED WITH COLD AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN ON FRI WITH A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z FRI. MORE TROUGHING
THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



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