000
FXUS63 KMQT 150908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TAKING A LOOK AT THE WX MAP THIS MORNING...THE SFC HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE E HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. FROM THE WELL WRAPPED-UP LOW EXTENDS A TOUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER
AN INCH AN HOUR/ HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER NORTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
IN AN SPC GENERAL RISK. WHILE THE RADAR HAS SHOWN ECHOES OVER THE
EAST HALF...THE PRECIP IS FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUDS...AND LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 9.7KFT...WITH ML
CAPE VALUES RISING ABOVE 500J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
CONTINUED S FLOW...AND INCREASED MOISTURE OVER WESTERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI...THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON /ACROSS WI/...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE 500MB RIDGE.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT STRETCHES ACROSS
S MANITOBA THROUGH S ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAS TOWARDS THE
REGION...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FAR E AROUND OR AFTER
06Z SUNDAY.

OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE QUICKER SHOWER AND TS ACTIVITY THAT
IS BEING POORLY PICKED UP BY THE MODELS...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
THIS FCST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MOST OF THE LONG TERM AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY NW
FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. COOLEST
WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND SHORTWAVE PASSING LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS BEYOND MON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE
ERN TROF WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE INTO THE ERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...NW FLOW WILL NOT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN/OPEN UP AS IT DRIFTS SE. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. TAIL END OF WAVE
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HRS OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN FCST AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MIDLEVEL
DRYING. WILL ONLY UTILIZE LOW CHC/SCHC POPS.

ON SUN...FLOW LOOKS RELATIVE BENIGN WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER UPPER MI AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE (REMNANT OF MID
LEVEL LOW) APPROACHING NW MN. RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WX OVER
THE FCST AREA SUN. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM SHOW MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500
TO PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS
IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT...MIGHT SEE
ISOLD SVR STORMS IF THE HIGHER SIDE OF INSTABILITY RANGE
MATERIALIZES. TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S/LWR 80S WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

WILL CONTINUE CHC SHRA/TSRA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING SE OF
UPPER MI MON...EXPECT SHRA TO END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FOLLOWING FROM THE W. IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER
DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...DUE TO BREEZY N WINDS AND
CLOUDS DOMINATING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. COOL NIGHT THEN ON THE
WAY FOR MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WITH DRY
AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO AROUND 50PCT OF NORMAL) AND
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...FAVORED LOWER GUIDANCE FOR MINS
MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

TUE/WED/THU...UPPER MI WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME HINTS IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO DROPPING
DOWN THE RIDGE INTO THE ERN TROF. TYPICALLY...SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW
DURING THE SUMMER PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING/STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF WAVES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN PINNING DOWN ANY MINOR
PCPN CHANCES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TUE SHOULD BE DRY WHILE
WED/THU MIGHT SEE A FEW SHRA. FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PCPN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABLY WHAT WILL BE LOW
COVERAGE IF PCPN DOES OCCUR.

HEADING INTO FRI...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE DRIFTING INTO THE PLAINS WITH
THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH BRINGS A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO DRY WEATHER INTO FRI WITH FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSING WRN TROF STILL OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS WORKING INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /VCNTY OF
IWD/. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT AND WILL NOT PUT INTO TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SAT
MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON AT IWD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OUTSIDE OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN A
OR BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING. A LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL EXTEND A TROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT
TOWARD SE CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A STRONGER HIGH SINKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH...AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF