Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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971
FXUS63 KMQT 241857
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

No significant weather both on land or water through tonight. High
pressure of 1018mb centered near Duluth MN slides across Upper
Michigan and Wisconsin through this aftn. Dry airmass and mixing
with the high should dissipate stratus and fog over far west U.P.
shortly after sunrise. No real clouds are then expected the rest of
the day. Northerly winds off Lake Superior will persist over the
eastern forecast area but west will see lighter winds and developing
lake breezes late morning/early aftn. After the chilly Sunday, it
will be much warmer today. Highs will reach the upper 70s inland
west and into the low to mid 70s inland central and east and also
near Lk Michigan. Coolest readings in the upper 60s will be where
the onshore winds persist all day near Lk Superior.

High will be overhead tonight over the east forecast area and skies
will remain clear. With that setup went for lows in the 40s inland
central and east with readings in the 50s elsewhere. Could be some
patchy fog mainly in the inland east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Main focus is on Tue night and Wed as a cold front moves across the
area, likely bringing convection. Otherwise, high pressure will keep
things quiet until maybe day 7 when some energy could bring some
precip, but no details on that yet.

Looks like weakening convection should move into the area late Tue
into Tue night, some of which could be strong to severe over mainly
the western CWA. CAPE is initially in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and
shear around 30kts, but diminishing CAPE with the normal diurnal
trend will diminish the severe weather threat over all but the far
W. The threat for sub-severe, yet strong, storms does look to extend
into central Upper MI.

On Wed, as the front continues to drop SE through the area, precip
looks to continue along the front, but coverage is uncertain. If
coverage is minimal there is a chance that some strong to possibly
severe storms could develop over the S-central given strong shear.

Blends handled everything well, so didn`t make any changes to
blended initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 147 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Expect VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday morning with high
pressure overhead. The next chance for stronger winds from the south
to southwest over 20 kts will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning over eastern sections as a low pressure trough crosses the
region. Otherwise, winds this week will be 15 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Voss



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