000
FXUS63 KMQT 130536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW
CENTER WAS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF CYSB INTO QUEBEC. AT THE
SFC...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS THE 998 MB LOW ALSO MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND A RIDGE RIDGE FROM NW
ONTARIO THROUGH WRN MN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. RADAR
INDICATED THAT THE LINGERING FLURRIES BTWN MQT-ESC-ISQ WERE
DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN .

TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE REST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PER SATELLITE
TRENDS...BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN WHAT SHORT TERM MODEL LOW
LEVEL RH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
BY LATE THIS EVENING WEST AND OVER NIGHT EAST AND PWAT VALUES BELOW
0.25 INCH...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. THE RECORD FOR THE NWS OFFICE ON 5/12 IS 24
AND ON 5/13 IS 25. READINGS INTO THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE
MID 20S EAST ARE EXPECTED WHILE TEMPS AROUND 30 PREVAIL NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY...AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS TO THE
EAST...A BROAD WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WRN GREAT LAKES. 295-305K ISENTRPOPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MN WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL DRY LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE BAND
OF MOISTURE/ASCENT WILL LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LIGHT PCPN
BAND TO THE FAR WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

SLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN A SFC RIDGE OVER THE ERN CWA AND A
TROUGH OVER THE MN/ND/SD BORDERS AT 00Z TUE. WAA AND ASSOCIATED THIN
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA. COVERAGE OF THESE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED BY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP POPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE SIMILAR TO LAST FORECAST. THE PRECIP MOVES TO THE
FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z TUE.

BY 00Z WED...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO SRN
MANITOBA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT TO
CENTRAL MN. BY THIS TIME...850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
16C OVER THE WRN CWA AND 9C OVER THE ERN CWA /14C AND 11C WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE...RESPECTIVELY/. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA FOLLOWED SHORTLY AFTER BY THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE
STRENGTH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR OVER
1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT MODELS SHORT THE DRY SLOT ROTATING
THROUGH AROUND THE SAME TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE...BRINGING AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER THAT LEADS TO 100-200J/KG OF CIN. WHETHER THE COLD FRONT
CAN LIFT PARCELS THROUGH THE DRY LAYER AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
DRYER AIR REALLY LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...MODELS NOW AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
VARY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR N OR S TO BRING THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IMPACTS POTENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIP DOES APPEAR LIKELY ENOUGH WED NIGHT TO
GO WITH LIKELY POPS /AT LEAST OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA/...AND
THUNDER ALSO SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET IN MOST LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN. DEFINITELY NOT SURE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL YET...BUT THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT ISOLATED SEVERE WX MAY BE POSSIBLE.

EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE COOLER DURING THE DAY WED THAN
TUE...GOOD MIXING AND SUNSHINE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
WARMER HIGH TEMPS AND LOWER RH VALUES...COMBINED WITH BREEZY WLY
WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND...WITH AROUND 60 EXPECTED
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT OF
LOWERING DEW PTS LOWER GIVEN GOOD MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT...LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25-30 PERCENT /OR LOWER/
RANGE OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND WEST UPPER MI. INCREASED WINDS ON WED
TO GUSTS TO 30KTS OVER THE WRN CWA /COULD BE HIGHER IF NAM
VERIFIES...BUT IT IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE/. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE WARMEST TEMPS...LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE INTERIOR WRN CWA...WHERE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TUE
NIGHT ARE THE LOWEST. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR WED...BUT MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THU...BUT STILL EXPECT
70S INLAND AND AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MIN RH VALUES LOOK TO
BE SIMILAR TO WED ON THE LOW END OF THE COMFORT SCALE FOR FIRE
WX...BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...JUST LOADED A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE DUE
TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND GREATER FOCUS ON FORECAST TUE-THU.
OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS /A REGULAR SEASONAL
NORMAL...NOT THIS SEASONS NORMAL/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL ZONES WILL BE NEARBY...BUT
GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FUTILE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APPROACH OF NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A LOW TO MID DECK OF CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD STILL STAY VFR.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT CHANCE IS STILL
LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PUT INTO TAFS QUITE YET. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

GALES WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING AND WINDS OVER THE EAST WILL
DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SE TO 25 KTS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WED. A WARM FRONT SLIDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS
COULD REACH 30 KTS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB