Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 261809
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
209 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern
U.S. and a closed low over northern CA and another over northern
Ontario. There is also a shortwave over southern Saskatchewan this
morning along  with one over southern MN. The shortwave over
Saskatchewan will head southeast and dig into the upper Great Lakes
on Thu. Deeper moisture moves out this afternoon across the southern
cwa. Next shortwave arrives Thu afternoon with most of the dynamics
and moisture remaining to the west of the area. Will have slight
chance pops along the WI border for Thu afternoon. Overall, did not
make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Looks quiet through the first part of the extended as main sfc
feature is high pressure over the region late Thu through most of
the weekend. Cold front may move in close enough late this weekend
to produce a chance of rain, though there are still questions on
that. High temps should mainly be upper 70s to low 80s through Sat,
though it will be cooler Thu and Fri near Lk Superior with gradient
onshore NE flow on leading edge of the high. Nighttime lows will be
seasonably cool in the 40s/50s as the high allows for radiational
cooling to develop. Even warmer temps are possible Sun with daytime
highs mainly in the 80s as long as there is sufficient insolation.

One exception to the overall dry forecast into the weekend could be
on Thu. Strong shortwave that currently shows up on wv loop over
southern Alberta drops through in NW flow aloft. This compact
shortwave and associated steeper h7-h5 lapse rates near 7c/km may
arrive just in time at end of peak heating to produce a few showers
along WI state line late Thu aftn into early Thu evening. GEM is
quicker and would support better chance of rain. Negatives are
limited deep moisture meager instability so not looking at anything
significant in terms of convection, just a buildup of cu and some
light showers.

Then, concerning the cold front for late this weekend, the GFS is by
far most aggressive/southward with front with boundary east to west
over Upper Michigan by late aftn. That solution would also support
scattered thunderstorms as the front would be arriving during peak
heating of Sun aftn and running into sfc based CAPES over 1000j/kg.
GEM and ECMWF not near as aggressive as they hold main front to the
northwest of Lk Superior through Sun aftn as high pressure remains
entrenched over the Great Lakes. Main shortwave should stay well to
the north over far northern Ontario but it is unclear if there could
be weaker shortwave farther south which could help support the GFS
idea. Blends yielded slight chances and will probably just let that
go for now as cannot completely rule out more aggressive/southward
front off the GFS.

Still some small rain chances early next week at the end of the long
term. Daytime temps should end up at or slightly above normal in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Nighttime lows will remain seasonable in the
50s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Expect the VFR ceilings and visibilities to continue over the next
24 hours.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 209 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Winds look to stay below 20 knots through the entire forecast
period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07


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