Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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151
FXUS63 KMQT 301938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SOME CU AND CIRRUS. CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE E DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND
E...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD. HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NCENTRAL AND W AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SCENTRAL AND E.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BRUSH SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT...BUT
THINK THEY SHOULD STAY S SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN RESULT IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND
20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO UP TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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