Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 280748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.

A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.