Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221741
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
141 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 437 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

No significant weather in the short term. A nearly 1040mb SFC high
will move over the area today. Ahead of the high, very light LES
will continue to diminish and should be completely done late
morning. Should see lake breeze development with mostly sunny skies
and decent SFC heating today. Behind the high, could see some light
snow tonight over the west due to WAA and isentropic ascent between
the high and a trough well to the W.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

Nam shows a 500 mb trough in the desert sw and a ridge across the
central U.S. and a trough in New England 12z Thu. The trough moves
into the central and southern plains 12z Fri as the ridge moves into
the eastern U.S. The trough remains over the central plains through
12z Sat. Pcpn types get to be a mess this forecast period on Thu
night into Fri morning. Warm air aloft over low level temperatures
around freezing spell a problem for weather types. Cannot rule out a
sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain combo for the cwa Thu night into
Fri morning still and will continue to mention this in the hwo
product. Otherwise, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF a closed 500 mb low over the southern
plains 12z Sat with a trough in the western U.S. The closed low
heads northeast to the corn belt 12z Sun with the trough moving into
the Rockies. This trough moves out into the central plains 12z Mon.
A shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with upper
ridging moving into the area for Wed as another trough moves into
the Rockies. Temperatures look to be above normal for this forecast
period. With temperatures at night and in the early morning hours
near freezing, mixed pcpn continues to look possible and have that
in the forecast. Looks pretty active with systems moving through the
area and to the south for this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail for the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Mid and high clouds will spread from west to
east overnight with winds becoming southerly at all terminals.
KIWD/KCMX have the potential to see a brief band of snow showers
move across the terminal Thursday morning, so have included mentions
of -SHSN along with MVFR ceilings/visibilities. Further to the east,
have opted to leave mentions of show showers out of KSAW for now as
it looks to occur towards the very end of this TAF period.
Therefore, will let subsident TAF issuance fine tune the potential
at KSAW. Otherwise, expect southerly winds to increase and become
gusty on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 437 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

No gales or heavy freezing spray expected, although S winds could
gust up to 30 kts over central and eastern Lake Superior Thu into
Thu night
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Titus



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