Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND THOSE
MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
SEA HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 17
FEET DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN INVERTED-V SHAPE IS IN
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
57W AND 61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS...THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N25W TO 9N43W...FROM 4N45W TO 3N47W TO 5N50W AND TO THE COAST
OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 16W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W...AND FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 106W. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LINE FROM 26N82W 28N85W 30N92W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE COASTAL
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.81 IN MERIDA
MEXICO...AND 0.10 IN VERACRUZ MEXICO..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE 25N95W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA ALONG 83W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N71W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A 600 MB TO 800 MB TROUGH IS ALONG 79W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.22 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN TRINIDAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 28N71W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-
AU-PRINCE. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD WESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO BE TO
THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL OPEN AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AFTER THE INITIAL
BROAD WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE
START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW IS INITIALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN IT SWITCHES IN ORDER TO BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CONTINUES FOR
THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N71W...ABOUT 350 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT HAS
BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 83W IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 32N BETWEEN 70W
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. SOME RAINSHOWERS HAVE
BEEN REACHING THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND COASTAL
AREAS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.12 IN NASSAU
IN THE BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N36W TO
25N45W TO 22N55W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N25W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N45W...TO 27N64W...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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