Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 14/1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE. AT THAT TIME...EDOUARD WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 50.7W
OR ABOUT 915 NM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT
14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
46W AND 56W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 21N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N88W TO 26N86W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 22N TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS BETWEEN 81W AND 88W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS BOTH FEATURES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
10N23W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 09N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 19W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM TX NEAR
26N97W TO THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100NM OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE
LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N89W TO 29N87W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF COAST AND A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. OVER THE
NEXT 2 DAYS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE W GULF AND MERGE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ACROSS THE E GULF SHOULD LESSEN WHILE THE W GULF BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THAT PART OF THE
BASIN. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W WHERE A SMALL
REGION OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N65W. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N65W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE LACK
OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W DRIFTING WESTWARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE TX COAST. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR 30N69W AND 30N34W. BETWEEN
THESE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HURRICANE EDOUARD. EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT TRACKS NW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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