Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST THU APR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO
3N21W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 1S36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF 6N11W 4N24W
2N31W 1N40W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF 1N44W 1N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 100W FROM TEXAS
INTO MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N80W 27N90W 25N95W 22N100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N70W...THROUGH 32N72W...TO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N93W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KVAF...KHQI...KGBK...KVBS...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...
AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. CLOUD CEILINGS AT 5500 FEET COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING FROM FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH
THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 28N60W AND
24N66W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 24N66W TO 21N73W BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE
FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W TO 20N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT IS WARM FROM
20N80W CURVING TO 16N84W ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N80W TO 16N83W
COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS IN THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD...ALONG
12N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
20N74W TO 18.5N75.5W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT
ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE SAME TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.

ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND
70W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W
28N73W BEYOND 25N80W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO A 26N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N39W 15N46W 12N54W...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES AWAY FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N32W...TO 27N31W 25N30W 22N31W 19N35W AND
18N40W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 15N39W 10N54W 6N66W 7N82W. THE DRIER AIR
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PRACTICALLY ALL
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N28W
20N31W 19N36W 18N43W 20N51W 26N51W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N52W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN THE 26N32W 18N40W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N55W-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N70W...THROUGH 32N72W...TO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N93W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 24N66W THEN
STATIONARY TO 20N75W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
31N62W TO 28N65W TO 28N70W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 71W AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...A WEAKENING
TROUGH FROM 20N35W TO 19N43W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO
THE EAST OF 41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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