Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 202318

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
00N18W to 01S28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
01S28W to the South American coast near 03S41W. No significant
convection is observed along these boundaries at this time.



A stationary 1025 mb surface high extends across the basin,
centered near 27N90W. With this, fair weather prevails across the
basin with a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow, as noted in
scatterometer data. A thermal trough was analyzed across the Bay
of Campeche extending from 21N95W to 18N94W. Little overall
change is forecast for the basin through Wednesday.


A weakening frontal trough extends from eastern Cuba southwest
to just offshore the coast of the border between Honduras and
Nicaragua near 15N83W. Scattered showers are observed within 90
nm of trough. To the east, a surface trough extends from 16N65W to
11N66W. Satellite imagery depicts pockets of scattered showers
moving westward over portions of the central and eastern Caribbean
waters. Similar activity is also observed over sections of
northern Honduras and Nicaragua. The surface trough over the
eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean waters by
Wednesday. This will introduce additional low-level moisture over
that portion of the sea along with the possibility of increasing
chances for showers. Scattered showers are expected to persist
along and inland the coasts of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua
through Wednesday.


Scattered showers are presently over some sections of the
central portions of the island as well as over northwest and
southwest Haiti due to low-level moisture lingering over much of
the island in combination with ongoing daytime heating. Little
change is expected during the next 24 hours, then the possibility
for increasing scattered showers increases afterwards as low-level
moisture increases with the approach of a surface trough.


A dissipating cold front is over the west-central Atlantic from
30N59W to 23N67W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front
to the eastern tip of Cuba. Behind it, a fast-moving cold front
extends from 31N61W to 22N76W to along the northern coast of
central Cuba. Scattered showers are observed near the fronts
mainly north of 29N. Strong to near-gale force northwest winds
with seas of 8-14 ft are behind the fronts. Patches of low-level
moisture with isolated showers are seen northeast of Puerto Rico
where a surface trough extends from 22N65W to 20N66W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface
high, currently centered near 41N35W. Expect during the next 24
hours for the front in the west-central Atlantic to merge. The new
front will continue moving east with convection. Surface ridging
will prevail to the east and west of the front.

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