Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 20N70W. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W CARIBBEAN...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AS OF 0900 UTC NW OF A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 12N84W. THEREFORE...THE GALE
WARNING FOR THAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN DROPPED.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT AND SUN NIGHTS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
0N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-04N BETWEEN 06W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER IS PRODUCING COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 87W WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. SE WINDS OF
10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO FRONTS EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST
FRONT EXTENDS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO
15N79W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO THE BELIZE COAST NEAR
18N88W. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE N OF THESE FRONTS.
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
PREVAIL. SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN
71W-67W AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND TRANSITION TO STATIONARY FRONTS
WHILE THEY DISSIPATE FROM SW TO NE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND
AS A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NE TO SW OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 72W SUPPORTS A LEADING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 23N66W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W ALONG 25N68W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W
INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE LEADING FRONT
N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LEADING FRONT S OF 25N. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING E OF THE LEADING FRONT N OF 29N. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 37N35W PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS
WILL MERGE. THE FRONTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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