Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near gale to gale-force winds are forecast to continue today
over eastern portion of the area of Agadir. During the next 24
hours, gale force winds are expected again over the area of
Agadir and also over Canarias. Please refer to the Meteo-France
high seas forecast that is listed under the following links:
Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 05N24W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 05N36W to the South America coast near
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 NM south of
the monsoon trough between 09W and 20W and within 100 NM north
of the ITCZ between 35W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shortwave upper-level trough is over southern Texas and
northeast Mexico generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of 23N and W of
92W. To the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 30N88W.
A surface trough extends southwest from the low to 25N91W.
Isolated moderate convection is observed along and in the
vicinity of these features. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle
to moderate easterly flow across the majority of the basin
except near the surface low and trough over the northeast Gulf.
During the next 24 hours, expect for the upper-level trough to
move east enhancing convection across the northern half of the
basin. The surface low will move northeast while weakening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface ridge that prevails across the central and east
Atlantic extends southwest reaching the Caribbean basin. The
pressure gradient generated by the combination of this ridge
with the low pressure across northern Colombia is supporting
moderate to fresh trades across the area mainly west of 77W.
There is also an area of moderate to fresh winds observed in
scatterometer data and latest surface observations across the
waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail elsewhere. Abundant low-level moisture is been
transported by the trades generating isolated convection across
the basin. The proximity of the monsoon trough currently
extending over Panama and Costa Rica, is generating scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the waters south of
11N between 76W-84W. Expect a similar weather pattern to
prevail during the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon hours
due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime
heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shortwave upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic
supporting moderate convection mainly north of 25N and west of
74W. To the east, a broad area of high pressure dominates the
remainder of the basin, centered near 35N32W. The pressure
gradient generated by this high pressure and a low pressure
centered over northern Africa is generating gale force winds
across the far east atlantic waters mainly north of 30N. PLease
refer to the Special Features section for more details. During
the next 24 hours, expect for the upper-level shortwave to
move east with convection. A cold front will move across the W
Atlantic enhancing convection/winds/seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA


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