Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/0600 UTC IS NEAR 25.0N
68.7W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 485 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350
DEGREES 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953
MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 130 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16.5N46W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N43W TO 16N50W
TO 10N55W...TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
13N53W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W 10N21W...TO A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W...TO 9N31W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N31W TO 10N42W AND TO 8N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND
34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S.A....THROUGH GEORGIA...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W...TO 27N80W 24N90W 21N97W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N77W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 24N86W...AND IT
CONTINUES TO 21N91W...AND TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
27N78W...TO 25N80W 23N85W...TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHERN BELIZE...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA IS OCCURRING IN
BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
20N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT
AND WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1016 MB...WITH HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUING
ITS NORTHWARD TRACK.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.93 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N79W NEAR PANAMA...ACROSS NICARAGUA
FROM ITS SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO ITS NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND
BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 67W
WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL HISPANIOLA-TO-GULF OF URABA TROUGH ALSO PASSES RIGHT
THROUGH THIS AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
TROUGH IS ALONG 20N67W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF
HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 19N
TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN L`ILE DE
LA GONAVE AND MAINLAND HAITI.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED IN
BARAHONA AT 16/0000 UTC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE
ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH REMAINS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
31N43W...CURVING TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N48W...AND CONTINUING TO 20N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITH
GALE-FORCE WIND...THAT IS NEAR 33N27W...TO 30N28W 28N30W 26N41W.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE THAT IS AROUND THE 27N48W CYCLONIC CENTER...
AND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W...AND WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N25W 27N30W 26N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 26N30W 20N38W 20N53W 23N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N23W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
15N...INCLUDING IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N17W IN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
23N24W...AND TO 15N33W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N56W AND TO 22N59W.
THIS RIDGE PASSES BETWEEN THE AREA OF THE 33N27W 26N41W COLD
FRONT AND HURRICANE GONZALO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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