Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 082344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N AND REMAINS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE GRADUALLY...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL
DEFINED 700 MB LOW INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 05N-17N
BETWEEN 17W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N43W TO 22N41W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT WITH A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. THE
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-50W AND THIS TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO FRACTURE A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ANY REMAINING
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY...
STABLE...AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. RELATIVELY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AT 700 MB OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-82W...AND S OF
12N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N24W TO 10N37W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO
06N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W SW TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 26N92W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS
SW THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA
FOCUSED ON A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N90W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING N OF 28N E
OF 90W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST W OF 90W. THE
INSTABILITY ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 23N E
OF 86W. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N95W THAT IS
PROVIDING AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 20N95W TO 24N97W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N W OF 88W...AND STRONGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 74W THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
18N95W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 23N75W. BENEATH THIS NORTHERLY FLOW...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 75W-85W...
INCLUDING PORTION OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MOST OF THIS SW CARIBBEAN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.
FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC CONTINUES TO PARTIALLY INFLUENCE THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-80W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
23N75W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING IS A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 61W-77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND SE
BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UNTIL THEN...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CUBA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N56W THAT SUPPORTS
A NEARLY COLLOCATED 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO 27N61W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 49W-58W. FINALLY...A
DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 38N21W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE AZORES...AND A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
33N20W TO 30N28W TO 32N38W. THE FRONT REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY
FRONT...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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