Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF
STARTING THU MORNING S OF 21N W OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
29N83W ALONG 22N91W TO 19N93W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO
THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N17W ALONG 4N23W 3N31W THEN SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ALONG
26N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. PATCHES
OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 45
NM ALONG THE COAST TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA WHERE SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE E REACHING FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE GULF EARLY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ON THU THROUGH EARLY
THU EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT PULSING TO NEAR GALE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 72W-85W
INCLUDING SW HAITI AND N JAMAICA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF BELIZE FRI NIGHT. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SW HAITI. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY GIVING THE ISLAND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THU NIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT W OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND FRI WHICH COULD BRING
MORE SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND ON FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUING N TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH JUST
E OF MAINE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 56W GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN
50W-58W. BASED ON A SCATTEROMETER PASS...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N56W ALONG 26N57W 25N60W TO 20N63W. A SECOND
WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 19N53W TO 25N52W.
DIFFLUNCE AT THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
45W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE THU AND
WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING
AND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT MORNING BEFORE
RAPIDLY LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR 60W WILL SHIFT E TO 55W TONIGHT THEN RETREAT NW
PASSING 65W FRI AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT
SAT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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