Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 020917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  79  88  80 /  50  40  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  88  78 /  50  50  70  50
HARLINGEN            94  77  89  77 /  50  40  70  50
MCALLEN              96  78  90  77 /  50  40  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78  90  77 /  40  30  60  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  87  80 /  50  50  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




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