Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail over deep
south Texas this morning. Some patchy fog has formed across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley reducing visibilities to around
3SM at times. Will mention a tempo at HRL/MFE for MVFR
visibilities through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue
for the next 24 hours as surface high pressure remains over the
region. Light and variable winds this morning will become
northeast to east at 12 knots or less this afternoon and evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Broad 500 mb ridging overhead
will shift  east over the central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.
Elongated surface high pressure extending from deep south Texas into
the mid-Atlantic states will also move east through the period.
Light winds this morning will veer to the northeast and east this
afternoon. Very dry air above 850mb will allow temperatures, away
from the coast, to warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Temperatures and dewpoints will recover tonight into Thursday with
the steady onshore flow. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
60s, except around 70 at the beaches, under partly cloudy skies.
Increasing low level moisture may support a few showers across the
coastal waters tonight. The higher dew points, along with light
winds and mostly clear skies may allow some patchy fog to develop
across the ranchlands and brush country overnight. High temperatures
Thursday will range from the low to mid 80s near the coast to the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the west. Low level moisture
and light easterly winds may support isolated convection across the
area on Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): The most significant
event in the long term portion of the forecast will be the passage
of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
late Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon in association
with a closed 500 mb low moving southeast through Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the front.
Afterwards, dry weather will prevail as mid-level high pressure
prevails in the wake of the low. In advance of the front, isolated
showers are possible mainly over the Lower Texas coastal waters
where available atmospheric moisture will be best. Above normal
temperatures are anticipated ahead of the front, with more near
normal temperatures behind it.

MARINE (Now through Thursday): High pressure extending southwest
into Texas will move east in the short term. Light to moderate east
winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the period.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tonight and Thursday.

Thursday Night through Tuesday: The most adverse marine conditions,
featuring Small Craft Advisories, are anticipated Sunday night
through Tuesday due to the passage of a cold front. Ahead of the
cold front, generally moderate winds and seas are likely.




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