Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251725 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Seabreeze CU field remaining close to the coast this
afternoon, with nearly clear skies further inland. a couple
showers may develop during peak heating, but will be very
isolated. Winds will remain modest around 10 knots this afternoon.
Skies will remain mostly clear overnight. A couple locations may
see very brief ground fog tomorrow morning right around sunrise,
similar to KBRO observations today. Winds will remain light
tomorrow. Increased moisture will bring more cloud cover during
the afternoon, with a better chance for showers to develop after
noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across
deep south Texas this morning. Surface observations also indicate
some patchy fog across the ranchlands this morning. VFR
conditions expected for the next 24 hours as a mid level ridge
continues overhead and provides subsidence across deep south
Texas. Light southeast winds this morning will become moderate later
this morning into the afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish to
around 10 knots by late this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Brownsville radar shows some
streamer showers across the Gulf waters this morning. This activity
is moving to the northwest and should begin to diminish later this
morning. Water vapor imagery continues indicated a mid to upper
level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico with large scale
subsidence over the area this morning. Brownsville sounding data
Wednesday evening showed a precipitable water value of 1.12 inches.

Mid to upper level ridging will slightly weaken and shift to the
northeast through the forecast period. Moisture will surge north
from the Bay of Campeche today. The combination light winds, low
level moisture, and day time heating should support isolated sea
breeze convection this afternoon. High temperatures today and Friday
will be slightly above normal with heat index readings generally
between 103 to 108 degrees each afternoon. Light winds are expected
tonight with low temperatures generally in the upper 70s. Moisture
and weak instability will allow isolated to scattered coastal
convection to develop tonight into Friday morning across the lower
Texas Gulf waters. Isolated sea breeze activity is expected across
the deep south Texas on Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will dominate throughout the entire long
term forecast period. An inverted 500 mb trough over the western
Gulf of Mexico and just south of the Louisiana and Texas border
will rapidly develop into a closed 500 mb low but then gradually
retrograde west and then southwest during the period. The feature
will be directly over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
on Monday, and the best chance for precipitation (40 percent) will
occur on this day within the BRO CWFA. With the opportunity for
precipitation and increased cloud coverage, daytime high and
overnight low temperatures will be kept in check to more near
normal values for this time of year.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 10 knots gusting to near 12 knots with seas around 2
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 300 AM CDT/08 UTC. High
pressure across the Southeast United States extending into the
Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to occasionally moderate east
to southeast winds and low seas along the lower Texas coast
through Friday.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the
forecast period with a weak pressure gradient in place across the
entire Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory are not likely to be needed.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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