465
FXUS64 KBRO 090323
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1023 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The forecast continues to trend a bit wetter, at least through
the weekend. An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure will
retrograde west from the western Gulf of America into northeast
Mexico, where it will then linger and transition into a broad 500
mb low. Combined with precipitable water (PWAT) values that will
hover around two inches and daytime heating, the result will be
the risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday through Sunday, with the least chance of rain occurring
Thursday, and the greatest chance of precipitation projected for
Saturday. After the weekend, with the dissipation of the 500 mb
low, mid-level high pressure building-in from the east, and PWAT
values decreasing to around 1.5 inches, dry weather will return.

Temperature-wise, no real extreme values are anticipated, with
near normal highs inching-up to slightly above normal levels at
the start of the new work week as the mid-level high increases its
influence on Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Generally VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours. Breezy winds are expected during the daylight hours, with
lighter winds at night. The HRRR model suggests little to no
precipitation for Wednesday, and thus, it has not been included in

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Surface high pressure positioned over the central to northeast
Gulf of Mexico, and extended along the Lower Texas Coast, will
interact with varying intensity with thermal low pressure over
inland Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and
seas for the lower Texas coastal waters. Although Small Craft
Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially over
the Laguna Madre and Gulf of America waters from 0 to 20 nautical
miles offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  93  78  92 /  10  30  10  10
HARLINGEN               75  94  75  94 /   0  30   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  96  78  96 /   0  30   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  96  75  96 /   0  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  80  87 /  10  30  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  91  77  91 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

FORECAST...Tomaselli-66
GRAPHICS/RADAR/UPPER AIR...Hallman-56