Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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879
FXUS64 KBRO 110949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST ARE SLOWLY INCREASING SO THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED.
ALOFT...500MB RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69C. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 10-15 MPH WEST OF
I-69C AND 20-25 MPH EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
RETURN HAS STARTED...IT WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 15-20% RANGE AND
20-35% RANGE EAST OF I-69C. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE
RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A
CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST TEXAS
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ADVANCE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOOK FOR MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH NO RAIN OR ONLY VERY
ISOLD SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST SUN THROUGH MON...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL DOWNWARD HIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW DEGREES OF DECREMENT EXPECTED WILL BARELY
BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL...THOUGH
WARMER THAN NORMAL...DAY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ON FRI...SO WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FEET THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF AS A FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW
TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS FROM UPSTREAM ON
SUNDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER TEXAS EDGES EAST...A FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND OUT OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION TODAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT HIGHER SFC AND 20 FOOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH HIGHER RH VALUES AND
DECREASED WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  58  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  58  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  61  71  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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