Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 081946
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK 500MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF TAMAULIPAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY FOR SUBSIDENCE TO WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. EVEN IF RAIN
CHANCES DO NOT MATERIALIZE WEDNESDAY AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW AND MOS
CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PEAK OF THE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. STARTING SATURDAY...THE
TROUGH FINALLY BREAK FREE AND SWEEP WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT
RIDGE CENTERED ON THE FOUR CORNERS. WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND LESS
MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S...WITH SOME 100 DEGREE
READING FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SE. WHILE INSTABILITY
INCREASES...MODELS ARE NOT YET PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIMIT A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE HELD TO
10 POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY SEASON FOR NOW.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK PG KEEPING WINDS FROM RAMPING UP.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE THE ISOLATED
STREAMER TYPE...WITH MINIMAL BRIEF IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  89  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  90  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  76  94 /  10  20  20  40
MCALLEN              77  95  77  96 /  10  20  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  96  76  94 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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