000
FXUS64 KBRO 231923
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
223 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...STRONG 600 DAM RIDGE AT
500 MB DOMINATES MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A STREAM OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS HOT AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WITH
HEAT INDEX OR "FEEL LIKE" TEMPS BETWEEN 105 TO 108 TODAY. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS
INLAND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S AND IN THE 80S ALONG COAST. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THE LOW
WILL BE FIGHTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STRETCHED OR SHEARED AS IT HEADS TOWARD OUR CORNER OF
THE WORLD. STILL THOUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE BY THE TIME THURSDAY
ROLLS AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BETWEEN 100 TO 104 DEGREES
WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 102 TO 106 THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
RGV...NAMELY HOT AND DRY. HOWEVER...A REMNANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM AFD WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT A FEW
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF ANY
OCCUR...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE.
THEREFORE...I HAVE UPPED POPS A TAD AND DELINEATED THE POP
STRUCTURE ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH THEY DO REMAIN SILENT AND BELOW 20
PERCENT. EVEN SMALLER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SAT BEFORE
POPS RETURN TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER
UNUSUAL BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER TEXAS LIKELY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF TEXAS
BUT NO RELIEF EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
VALLEY...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
DRIVE FRONTAL INDUCED CONVECTION INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY WHICH IS STILL OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN...DRY.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY KEPT IN TACT WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOMMODATE
CURRENT TRENDS THERE. HEAT INDICIES TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 103 TO
110 EACH DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL
BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET AND LESS THAN 2 FEET INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING WINDS MORE EASTERLY
INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
STILL DEVELOP THURSDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON
WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW THREE FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  78  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  76  98 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77 101  78 100 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 102  79 102 /  10  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  90  79  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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