Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 011135 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 5SM WITH PATCHY FOG AT KBKS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AS A WEAK
500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INSTABILITY
ALOFT OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 18Z TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AFTER 18Z
AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE...SUMMER HEAT WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS TEXAS AS THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
TREKS WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NE US. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE
PRECIP CHANCES. PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OR BETTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SOAR AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 105
OUT WEST EACH AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING DAILY
FROM 105 TO 110 DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY WEEK MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY TRANQUIL...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND
10 KNOTS AND SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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