Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231735
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC OBSERVATION SHOW MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH HEIGHTS 2-3K FEET. SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS
BEGINNING TO FORM AS WELL AS THE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VWP SHOWING 25-40 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO
10K FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO GUSTY SFC WINDS WITH 25 KTS LIKELY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL HELP WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS
THIN FURTHER TONIGHT. AFT 6Z EXPECT A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
1300FT AT KAPY TO NEAR 3600FT AT KMFE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE A 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD TODAY
BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH WINDS ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BRINGING DRIER
AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS KENEDY COUNTY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA TONIGHT BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWS
MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE STATE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN REGION OF TEXAS. THIS WILL MAINLY PROVIDE
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 40S.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S AS MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST CONTINUING THE
SAME WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH THE
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS
THE EAST RETURNING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO THE MID TO LOW 50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE
NORTH REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN CA AND BAJA CA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTER ALOFT INCREASING THE
DIFFLUENT PATTERN. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTH TX WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE THE ADDITION OF POPS STARTING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REACHING NORTHERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE THIS
FRONT ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 8 FEET WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 21 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE
SCA FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IF GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED ACROSS ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NO SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF STRENGTHENS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN NO MORE
THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL ONLY BRING SEAS
TO BUILD CLOSE TO 3 FEET AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASE AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-170.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ155-175.

&&

$$

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