Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 291014
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
414 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): A weak stationary frontal
boundary draped across the middle of CWA this morning. The
combination of elevated dew points and lighter winds has allowed
some light patchy fog to develop across portions of the area this
morning. Widespread dense fog is not expected as winds should remain
in the 5 to 10 mph range, especially near the coast.

Today will be very warm with above normal tempeatures as the weak
front lingers across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will
range from the mid 80s across the west and the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere with a mix of sun and clouds. A cold front will move
through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the pre-
dawn hours of Wednesday, producing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for most of Deep South Texas. Breezy north winds will
prevail across the region on Wednesday in the wake of the front.
High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s under
mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The main event in the
long term portion of the forecast continues to be a closed 500 mb
low pressure system that will drop south into northwest Mexico and
linger before ejecting east and then northeast over Texas and the
Central Plains. The location and track of the mid-level low, and
the approach and passage of a cold front through the BRO CWFA, will
result in Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley being in a
very favorable position for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Monday. The expected relatively high
chances of rain, significant cloud cover, passage of a cold front
on Wednesday, and another frontal passage on Saturday night or
early Sunday will hold daytime high and overnight low temperatures
to near normal for a majority of the long term forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 21 knots gusting to around 25 knots with seas slightly over
 7.2 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 03 CST/09 UTC. Adverse
marine conditions continue across the Lower Texas Gulf waters
early this morning due to moderate to strong south winds and
elevated seas. Will extend the previously issued Small Craft
Advisory for the Lower Texas Gulf waters through 11 am this
morning. Marine conditions expected to gradually improve this
afternoon into this evening as the pressure gradient weakens ahead
 of the next front. The passage of a cold front around sunrise
Wednesday will likely create Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters on
Wednesday. A brief period of gale-force wind gusts are possible
Wednesday morning for a few hours with the passage of the cold
front.

Wednesday Night through Monday: Adverse marine conditions are
forecast through much of the period due to frontal passages and
enhanced surface pressure gradients. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely accompany the strong winds and rough seas for all or
portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters. The most favorable
wind and sea conditions for mariners are anticipated to be
Thursday night. But even then, Small Craft may need to Exercise
Caution for portions of the Gulf of Mexico waters due to seas.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  67  74  58 /   0  20  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          88  66  75  57 /   0  20  10   0
HARLINGEN            91  64  77  54 /   0  20  10   0
MCALLEN              91  64  79  53 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  60  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  70  73  64 /   0  20  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Brady-62



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