Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 242346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
546 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/0000 UTC AS VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A SCTD-BKN DECK OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE SEEN (MAINLY)
BETWEEN 25/0900 AND 25/1500 UTC. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING LOWER
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE N COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 000 FT. EVEN HERE.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT NE WINDS TO DIMINISH
IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET WITH NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BUT
ESSENTIALLY ALL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THE RESULT
IS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH COOL NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
LOWER...DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A LITTLE FARTHER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE IN
RECENT DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR OR MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER PRETTY COOL/CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO
42. /68/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. /61/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME MORE MODERATE
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES WIND SPEEDS AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. /68/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. /61/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... DRILLETTE
PSU/GRAPHICAST... BIRCHFIELD



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