Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161713 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1113 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...18z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...After a somewhat foggy start, flight categories have
bounced back to VFR for our terminals. Think today there will be
a few more clouds than yesterday with a very widely scattered
shower or two not out of the question. Covered this possibility
with VCs due to very low confidence and spotty nature.

Tonight we did bring in some MVFR fog once again for MFE and HRL
like the past several days. That said, confidence is a bit lower
this round due to winds overnight staying a bit higher than the
past few nights. Speaking of winds, a generally light (around or
less than 10kt) southeasterly flow is expected through this
cycle, however, toward the end of the period some wind gusts may
approach 20kts or so.



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate fog is trying to develop early this morning,
but it is having trouble due to a stratus deck expanding across much
of the middle valley and northern ranchlands. A few areas could
still see patchy fog with reduced visibilities through mid morning
when daytime heating and winds are expected to increase. Later this
morning and afternoon, conditions will improve with scattered clouds
and another day of above-normal temperatures. Mid-level high
pressure still is the dominant feature across South Texas, keeping
the area mostly rain-free. At the surface, though, weak troughing of
low pressure along a dissipating front will provide an opportunity
for isolated showers along the coast and over the marine areas
today. Weak surface flow and warm temperatures may allow a weak
seabreeze to push a couple showers further west, but most areas
should remain dry as moisture is limited above the 850mb layer.

Friday, another round of fog and low clouds will be possible in the
morning as strong subsidence continues above a moist surface. The
winds may be a bit higher overnight, so not expecting widespread
dense fog at this time. In the afternoon, dry conditions and very
warm temperatures are expected again with highs ranging from the mid
80s east and low 90s in the Upper Valley, which may near record
levels. Winds will increase in the afternoon with gusts around 20
mph as the next storm system develops in the Central Plains.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Saturday remains the
target day for the passage of a cold front. Isolated showers now
appear to be most likely along and east of the Interstate 69E
corridor Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, where
precipitable water values will be greatest. The passage of the
cold front will also serve to bring daytime high and overnight low
temperatures to more near normal levels after above normal values
Friday night and Saturday. 500 mb high pressure centered near the
Baja Peninsula and a mid-level flow out of the northwest and north
in the wake of the cold front will ensure dry weather for the
entire BRO CWFA Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Light to moderate southeast winds and
seas at 2 to 3 feet will continue today with surface high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and a weak pressure gradient. Low pressure
will develop in the Central Plains on Friday, which will increase
winds to 15 to 20 kts Friday night. Seas will also build to 4 feet
by the end of the short term period.

Friday Night through Wednesday: The early Saturday night passage
of a cold front through the Lower Texas coastal waters will
generate Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas early Saturday
night through Sunday night. Ahead of the front, Small Craft
Exercise Caution winds and/or seas are possible for portions or
all of the Lower Texas coastal waters Friday night and Saturday.
After Sunday night, much more favorable winds and seas are




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