Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.


.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  20  20   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  20  20   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  20  20   0  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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