Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
GRANDE RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY MID
LEVEL ENERGY OVERHEAD AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES AND A
TEMPO AT MFE BETWEEN 18 TO 22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER CONVECTION. ALSO WILL ADD A TEMPO FOR MFE FROM 12-14Z DUE
TO CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR DEL RIO TO SAN MARCOS TO HOUSTON AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
GRANDE RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY MID
LEVEL ENERGY OVERHEAD AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 0Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.78 INCHES
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2
INCHES/...WEAKNESS ALOFT COMBINED WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF US 281/I-69C. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS A TALE OF TWO HALVES. FIRST...FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES)
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE HELD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN
RESPONSE TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.
THEN...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...A
MASSIVE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PLUNGING TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WILL COUPLE WITH THE 500 MB FLOW
OVER THE BRO CWFA BECOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER...MUCH DECREASED CLOUD COVER....AND CONSEQUENTLY...WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH...EVEN
THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED OR INDICATED PER
CURRENT NCEP CHARTS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
3.9 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LONG FETCH OF BREEZY WINDS FROM
THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

COASTAL FLOODING...BUILDING SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COURTESY OF A LONG FETCH OF BREEZY
WINDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST WILL APPROACH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE...AND WILL COMBINE
WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TO
PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL WAVE WASHING UP TO THE DUNES...
CAUSING AN INCREASED HAZARD OF DRIVING ON THE BEACHES AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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