Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250555 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VRF conditions are expected to prevail through the
TAF period with possible...very brief MVRF cigs developing
generally after daybreak. However...confidence in timing and
location remains low. Meanwhile...high clouds are expected to
increase across the region as various upper level disturbances
approach Deep South Texas...however any precip chances remain
rather low and have left TAFs dry. A tightening pressure gradient
coupled with the typical diurnal cycle will allow for gusty SE
winds during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A few passing low cu clouds and moderate southeast
winds prevail across Deep South Texas this evening. VFR
conditions expected through the next 24 hours. However, some brief
MVFR ceilings are possible after midnight but confidence remains fairly
low at this time, so will not mention MVFR ceilings in this TAF
cycle. High clouds will be on the increase tonight and Monday as
an upper level disturbance approaches the area. Otherwise, light
southeast winds later this evening and overnight will become moderate
with gusts around 20 knots by late Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): For the next 24 hours or so,
weather over Deep South Texas will be dominated by mid-level high
pressure centered roughly over New Mexico. Another hot afternoon in
progress across the area, with heat indices hanging around the 108-
110 degree range in a few spots, just shy of Heat Advisory
criterion.  More robust SE surface flow has precluded development of
any sea-breeze convergence zone to speak of, so not expecting much
of anything in the way of shower development for the remainder of
the afternoon.

Another sultry night in store tonight with an increase in high
clouds ahead of an inverted mid-level trough (actually the first of
2) which will move into the western Gulf/NE Texas by early on Monday
morning and progress into central TX by evening. Correspondingly, by
later in the day, NAM/GFS advertise precipitable water values of 1.9-
2.1 inches across the CWA, and both show a decent signal for sea-
breeze convection, so have raised PoP`s into the isolated category
for the middle part of the CWA for tomorrow afternoon, with some
thunder possible.  Heat indices once again top out in the 105-110
range.

A little tricky for Monday night.  First aforementioned wave moves
inland well to our north, while second inverted mid-level trough or
closed low approaches the coast late.  Bulk of richer moisture surge
progged to pass just north of the area, however.  Basically kept
PoP`s isolated for offshore and coastal areas first half of the
night, then increased to more scattered coverage over those areas
late to blend in with first part of long-term.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb inverted trough across
the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday will move westward across south
Texas and northeast Mexico Wednesday. This will provide the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the coastal sections of
the CWA Tuesday as low to mid level moisture increases across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances are progged to diminish
slightly on Wednesday as the inverted trough weakens. The weakness
in the 500mb ridge across south TX will continue through the rest
of the week. This will provide a slight chance of seabreeze
convection...mainly across the coastal sections and during the
afternoon hours...through the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE:
Now through Monday night...Pressure gradient has tightened
somewhat between broad surface high over the Gulf and thermal
troughing inland, increasing SE winds to SCEC level over the
Laguna Madre this afternoon. Possible that SCEC headlines may be
needed for nearshore waters overnight and again for the Laguna on
Monday. Seas to remain light to moderate with increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances by tomorrow night.

Tuesday through Friday...Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Tuesday with surface high
pressure ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient is expected to remain relatively weak across the lower
Texas coast Wednesday through Friday. Light to moderate southeast
winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico as a result.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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