730
FXUS64 KBRO 300349
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1049 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Depression Barry has made landfall in Eastern Mexico, 273
miles south of Brownsville. Its remnants are bringing showers and
some thunder to the region tonight, and an increased swell is
leaving a Moderate Risk of rip currents. These showers and coastal
hazards are the only anticipated impacts to Deep South Texas from
TD Barry. While flash flooding is not anticipated, PWAT values of
2.25" from the 00Z sounding indicate plenty of moisture available
and may allow for heavy rain rates, which can lead to ponding.

Showers are likely (70-80%) with thunderstorms possible today as
moisture influx from Barry`s remnants work northward. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday,
with rain chances beginning to decrease Monday night. Rain chances
are moderate (50-60%) on Tuesday with thunderstorms possible, and
low (10-20%) Wednesday. High moisture content lead to heavy
rainfall within showers possible.

High temperatures early this week start off below normal - highs
in the 80s will not feel realized with this increase of moisture,
leaving apparent temps in the 90s to around 100 by midweek.
Seasonable low temperatures in the 70s provide little relief.

At the local beaches, increased swell from TD Barry maintains a
Moderate Risk of rip currents.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Chances of rain decrease from low (10-20%) to almost none through
the long term period. While PoPs decrease through the week,
temperatures are expected to increase as cloud cover clears and high
pressure builds over the central US. A Moderate Heat Risk is
possible late week with apparent temperatures climbing into the
triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The latest radar imagery depicts isolated showers over the Gulf
waters and near the terminals this evening. High res guidance
indicates any development should dissipate by 03Z with generally
rain-free conditions prevailing through the overnight period.
Expect VFR with intermittent MVFR ceilings to prevail tonight,
although MVFR ceilings should begin to develop closer to 10-12Z.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop once
again tomorrow morning. Subsequent TAFs will likely require
adjustments to the timing of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail over the period. Moderate
seas brought by Tropical Depression Barry will decrease to slight by
Tuesday, with generally favorable conditions for the remainder of
the period. Moderate to high chance (50-80%) of rain and
thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, decreasing to low
(10-20%) through Friday. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are
possible in any showers, along with lightning in any
thunderstorms, temporarily degrading marine conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  87  77 /  70  50  80  40
HARLINGEN               91  74  86  74 /  70  30  80  40
MCALLEN                 93  77  87  76 /  60  30  80  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  74  85  74 /  40  20  70  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  78  85  79 /  70  50  80  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  86  77 /  70  50  80  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...22-Garcia