Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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044
FXUS64 KBRO 240757 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Nam forecast soundings indicate that a shallow moist
layer will form up over the RGV through the early morning hours
reducing ceilings down to mvfr levels in some areas. Surface
troffing over the central portion of the country will increase the
s-se surface winds later today after sunrise. This combined with
daytime heating will mix out the low levels of the atms allowing
vfr conditions to prevail through the mid portion of the current
taf set. Forecast soundings indicate that another low level moist
layer will reform over the RGV from 06-12z Wed morning allowing
for more mvfr ceilings to reform.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...vfr conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
low level inversion to strengthen before or shortly after midnight
with mvfr stratus layer to reform between 1500-2500 feet and last
through mid morning tuesday. patchy mvfr may form in some limited
location however confidence is low with moderate southeast winds
remaining around 10 kts all night. southeast to south winds
increase later tuesday morning with gust up to 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast for
the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates South Texas. Drier air
continues to feed into midlevels, with dry air all the way down to
4000 feet...with deeper moisture trapped underneath. H7
temperatures remaining above 12C will also help to cap off the
atmosphere, keeping rain chances out of the picture. LLVL moisture
still able to bubble up under the cap, so skies will remain mostly
cloudy today and again tomorrow. Low pressure across the Permian
Basin will interact with high pressure across the eastern U.S. to
bring gusty SE winds during the day tomorrow. Forecast guidance
for temperatures looks good through the next 36 hours, so minimal
changes needed, with highs tomorrow in the mid 90s and lows
tonight and tomorrow in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): On Wednesday, the center
of upper level high pressure will migrate west to east just to
south of Brownsville that will bring one last day that is
precipitation-free to the Rio Grande Valley. On Wednesday night,
thunderstorms look to fire over the Sierra Madre in old Mexico and
drift east into the valley. On Thursday, the upper level high
pressure will begin to break down and move east into the western
Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a weak shortwave trough will move
across the forecast area from west to east and this will bring
increased chances of thunderstorms to the region Thursday
afternoon/evening. Weak low pressure will remain over deep south
Texas on Friday with continued chances of showers/thunderstorms.
Though temperatures will remain somewhat above normal in the Wed-
Fri time frame, additional cloud cover and lower
heights/thicknesses will cut a couple of degrees off of daytime
highs Thu-Fri. Hot days with humid conditions all hours will
persist.

On Saturday, the Rio Grande Valley will once again come under the
influence of a weak ridge of high pressure extending up from
central Mexico, and the ridge looks to hang around through Monday.
Temperatures will generally remain somewhat above normal across
the entire region for the three day period. Despite the developing
ridge of high pressure slight chances of showers/thunderstorms
will continue through the end of the long term forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday night): Considerable interaction
between low pressure across West Texas and high pressure across
the eastern U.S. will cause southeasterly winds to continue to be
gusty across the marine areas through the next 36 hours. The
southeasterly fetch extends across most of the western Gulf, so
this will continue to create longer period swells. Seas currently
around 5 feet will remain at this state through tomorrow night.

Wednesday through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and seas
will dominate through a majority of the period with high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting intensely with thermal low
pressure over northern Mexico and low pressure in the Central
Plains. Wind and sea conditions may improve in the Sun-Mon time
frame, but Small Craft Exercise Caution may still be needed.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...60
Long Term...66



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