Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 032338 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...APPEARS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SW DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.3 INCHES THIS MORNING
BUT THE ATMS IS WELL CAPPED LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST NEAR KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY IN THE RANCHLANDS.
CU STARTING TO BUILD WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS
THE NE WITH SKC ACROSS THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING MAX TEMPS ONE TO TWO DEG
TODAY. TONIGHT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WITH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SO DOES THE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. INTO TUESDAY TIGHT THICKNESS VALUES WITH
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20 DEG C WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WEST FROM MCALLEN INTO RIO GRANDE CITY AND
ZAPATA. ACROSS THE EAST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S. DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN MIXING WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTENT
NEAR 850 MB LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY
AND THAT SHOULD HINDER ANY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS MORE
ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT
HOLDS THE RIDE MORE FIRM AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE THAN
TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH TEMP GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY. OVER
THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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