000
FXUS64 KBRO 270917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...IT IS HOT. AGAIN... MIDLEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS TEXAS. MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE MINIMIZING CLOUD COVER AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TODAY...REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS
WEST OF US 77...WITH UPPER 90S RECORDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. PGF TIGHTENING BETWEEN GULF SFC HIGH AND HEAT LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
TODAY. TOMORROW...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
UNDERCUTS THE DOMINANT RIDGE AND SWEEPS WWD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...CLIPPING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STILL
REMAIN LIMITED BELOW 1.5 INCHES...THICKNESS VALUES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...KNOCKING A COUPLE DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. BUT YOU
LIKELY WONT NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 99 AND 101
DEGREES. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NW GULF.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...FINALLY CHANGES ARE ON
THE WAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UNUSUAL COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING MUCH OF
TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RAINLESS CONDITIONS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD LOOSENING IT GRIP ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLOW GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. STILL SUFFICIENT LOW
PRESSURE INLAND FROM THE THERMAL LOW BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
MODERATE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN HOT BUT WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST AND THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE UPWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE RGV
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ANY CASE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AND POOL SOUTH AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL
ENDING LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
TREND UPWARD ON POPS AND AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE GREATEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. IF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
THEN HOMEGROWN CONVECTION IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BUT COULD EVEN GO LOWER
IF THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LAGUNA MADRE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KNOTS. WILL BE HOISTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE RISK OF GUST WINDS. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND THE LOWER WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE A DOWNWARD
TREND BECOMING LIGHT BY TUESDAY AND REMAINING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS TO RESPOND BECOMING SLIGHT BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  80  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  79  90  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL...PSU/GRAPHICS