Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251937
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
237 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): The overall pattern
will not change significantly in the short term. A mid level
weakness will remain over the West Gulf, splitting a ridge
centered over Northwest Mexico/Arizona, and the Bermuda ridge
extending across Florida into the Gulf. A weak front has pushed
south, partly into deep South Texas and the RGV, and is providing
a focus along which convection can move inland. High pressure
behind the front has pushed out into the Northwest Gulf and is
supporting light to moderate east winds. Deep, moist, east flow to
10 kft is registering Pwat values of two inches or more, and this
will continue in the short term. Look for waves of scattered to
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms during the day, with
somewhat less overland activity at night, when streamers and
marine convection will be more prevalent. The spacing of the
convection will reduce the likelihood of larger scale significant
flooding, with amounts of a few tenths of an inch to an inch
common, but areas that fall under a batch of heavier raining
convection could see measurements of two to three inches in an
hour. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s at night and held to the
lower 90s during the day.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Cutoff trough caught between
two ridges will continue to provide instability across south Texas
through most of the upcoming week. Forecast vertical profile shows
that moisture remains ample through the midlayers through Friday,
with noted PW values remaining above 1.8 inches throughout. With
continued daytime heating and random outflow and seabreeze
boundaries across the area, it won`t take much to spark more
showers each day. Later Thursday into Friday another front sags
southward across the central Plains. This will tighten the
gradient locally, bringing slightly higher winds for the region.
Breezier conditions will increase the shear on daytime showers, so
they won`t be as numerous Friday. Drier air also begin to filter
into the region in time for next weekend, further limiting shower
chances.


&&

.MARINE:
Now through Monday night: High pressure over the north Gulf will
support light to mdt east winds and low to mdt seas. Showers and
thunderstorms will persist.

Tuesday through Thursday: Modest winds and seas will continue
through the middle of the week, as the pressure gradient remains
loose. Southeast winds will run around 10 knots Tuesday and
Wednesday, keeping wave height generally around 3 feet. A storm
system moving across the Central Plains will help increase winds
across the northwest Gulf on Thursday to around 15 knots, which
will kick seas up to 4 to 5 feet. Good moisture across the region
will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms, especially
during the nighttime hours when stability is lowest over the Gulf
waters. Any showers could produce briefly gusty winds and cloud to
surface lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  87  77  88 /  40  50  40  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  89  77  90 /  40  60  30  50
HARLINGEN            75  90  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
MCALLEN              76  92  76  93 /  30  40  20  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  95 /  40  40  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  85  79  85 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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