Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181720
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Latest satellite imagery shows CU deck developing
across the region with VFR conditions prevailing. Expect southeast
winds to pick up slightly this afternoon with some gusty periods
possible before becoming light overnight. Would not be surprised
to see another round of brief MVFR ceilings at the three airports
Saturday morning, so have added in TEMPO groups right after
daybreak. Outside of the brief MVFR ceilings, expect VFR
conditions to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate a
few patches of low clouds across portions of the CWA this morning.
Ceilings were near 500ft at KHBV. Visibilities were near 5SM with
fog at KBKS and KEBG to near 6SM with fog at KHRL and KPIL. Expect
VFR conditions to prevail today as 500mb subtropical ridge across
the northwest Gulf of Mexico provides subsidence across the area
this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb subtropical ridge
across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today will move westward
across the Texas coast Saturday. Moisture will be limited below
850mb through the short term so not much in the way in rain
chances are expected today through Saturday. Will continue with
persistence for temperatures this afternoon and Sat afternoon.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): The long term
forecast reasoning remains stable. 500 mb high pressure initially
dominant over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will
retreat north and be pinched in half by a closed 500 mb low that
will approach from the southeast and move just south of the Texas
Big Bend. Isolated showers over a majority of the Lower Texas
coastal waters early in the forecast period will spread west and
become isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms within the
BRO CWFA due to the influence of the closed mid-level low.
Inherited precipitation chances were increased to reflect this,
while inherited daytime high temperatures were trimmed back
slightly to account for the greater rain chances and cloud cover.

MARINE (Today through Saturday): Seas were near 4 feet with
south to southeast winds near 14 knots at buoy020 early this
morning. Light to moderate southeast winds will prevail across
the coastal waters today with surface high pressure across the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain weak across
the lower Texas coast tonight into Saturday. Light east to
southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico
Saturday.

Saturday Night through Thursday: Surface high pressure will
dominate over the western Gulf of Mexico, ensuring light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be
needed.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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