Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 201132 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Shallow ground fog appears to be affecting HRL and
this has been accounted for by adding MIFG to the TAF for this
aerodrome. Meanwhile, BRO and MFE are full VFR. Light winds with
a few clouds will prevail for all aerodromes after sunrise this
morning. Another round of light fog is possible tonight but has
not been included in the current TAFs or the official forecast.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure centered
just east of the Mississippi River delta at the start of the short
term forecast period will gradually shift east-northeast as a deep
500 mb trough moves into the Central Plains. Dry weather over the
entire BRO CWFA today will yield to isolated showers over only the
Lower Texas coastal waters tonight and Friday courtesy of this
pattern. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will result in well
above normal temperatures.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): A cold front will move
across central Texas Saturday night. Ahead of the front, isolated to
scattered showers are possible over the immediate coastal counties
and the coastal waters Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday
night will fall into the 70s under partly cloudy skies. The cold
front is still expected to move through deep south Texas Sunday
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the front with the best rain chances remaining well
north of the area. High temperatures on Sunday should climb into the
90s before the cold front arrives. Slightly cooler and drier air
filters into the region in the wake of the front. Reinforcing high
pressure will surge into the deep south Texas on Tuesday prolonging
the dry and more comfortable airmass. Near to above normal
temperatures will prevail through the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Saturday): Light to moderate winds and
generally moderate seas are expected along the Lower Texas Coast
during the period with high pressure over the northern half of the
Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure over the southern
half and the Bay of Campeche. Forecast sea heights may be high
enough such that Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed for the
far offshore Gulf of Mexico waters tonight and Saturday.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night...Light to moderate southeast
winds and elevated seas will persist Saturday night into Sunday as a
cold front approaches deep south Texas. Moderate north winds will
develop Sunday afternoon and become strong Sunday night as high
pressure behind the front spreads over the area. Winds will
gradually shift to northeast through Tuesday night. Seas will build
over the Gulf waters Sunday night through Monday in the wake of the
front and again Tuesday night and Wednesday due to a reinforcing
surge of high pressure. Small Craft Advisory likely for the Gulf
waters Sunday night and Monday and again Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead
and along the front Saturday night and Sunday.



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