Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 201129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE
AERODROMES RIGHT NOW AS A RESULT OF LOWERED CLOUDS AND/OR LIGHT
FOG. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DEVELOPING MODERATE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW VFR TO QUICKLY DEVELOP...WITH
VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR IS POSSIBLE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BEYOND AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW
STRATUS SETS UP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...LIGHT FOG IS NOTED AT HRL...
HBV...BKS...AND PIL RIGHT NOW...POSSIBLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION IN
THOSE AREAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEATHER IN THE BRO CWFA IS QUIET WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

TODAY...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING
PEGGED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST UNDER 2 INCHES...DRYING IN
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PLUNGE THE MOISTURE CONTENT DOWN TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THE DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASINGLY OPPRESSIVE HIGH WILL
YIELD DRY WEATHER WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. WITH SATURDAY HIGHS RECORDED
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...TOOK INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
BUMPED THEM UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RECOVER A BIT...BUT NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ON OR OFF SHORE. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOKED TOO COOL OVER THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN
TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO ADJUSTED THESE UPWARD EVER SO
SLIGHTLY.

MONDAY...NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE...SO THEREFORE NO APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY TO THIS DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER HOWEVER.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN PREVAILS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH A WEAK LOW
IN THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE
CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES ARE LIMITED RANGING
FROM 40 TO 65 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA SHOWN ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
00Z MODEL RUN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REACH THE
100S ACROSS THE WEST AND UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST TRENDING A FEW
DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SHIFTS WESTWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281 ON AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW TEMPERATURES
STAY AROUND MID 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS
AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE AT LEAST TODAY AND MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE SCEC CONDITIONS AND UP
TO 5 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE BUT THIS CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT LOWER SEAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN MODERATE OVER
THE LAGUNA AND THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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