Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KBRO 120919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY STRONG PGF
OVER THE AREA AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA THE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
RESULTING IN HIGHER RH`S AND THICKENING CLD COVER. WAA WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE THICKENING CLD COVER WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN
THE DIURNAL HEATING A BIT.

DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE S-SE WINDS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED THROUGH
TOMORROW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE 500 MB PVA
REMAINING CONFINED GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EXPECT
POPS TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 % RANGE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 % POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EDGES INTO THE REGION
THEN.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO A 50/50 MODEL
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE WETTER VERSUS THE MAV ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THIS MODEL FOR POPS THROUGHT THE SHORT TERM.

ALTHOUGH THE PGF WILL BE PRETTY DECENT AS THE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 70S WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 1.6 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND DAWN
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATING AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
WITH MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS DRY AIR AND
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PGF WILL REMAIN PRETTY STRONG
OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY COOL BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. SO FOR NOW
WILL ONLY MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE AREAS. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING CLD COVER. MORE
LOW LEVEL MARINE CLD LAYERS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS WOULD
ALSO HELP INHIBIT THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY WITH EVEN A SHORT DURATION OF GALE
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST ALLOWING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  72  83  73 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  72  84  73 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            86  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              88  73  91  74 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  71  80  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63/CAMPBELL





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.