Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 202025
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE NAM 500MB HEIGHTS SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
MEXICO WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STREAMING PAC MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL MX AND SOUTH TEXAS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS ALSO NOTED
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE EAST COAST WHILE TO
THE NORTH THE JET IS ENTERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE EAST...BROAD SFC HIGH WILL MIGRATE EAST
WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE S IS SURGING MOISTURE N INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND AS A RESULT INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. AREAS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME RAIN
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE RGV AND COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST EVERYWHERE ELSE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS NORTHEAST WIND WILL FILTER IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF DEVELOPING AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVER THE LOWER RGV RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG ALSO AS THE INTERACTION OF WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FOG. FURTHER INLAND THE LIGHT WINDS WITH PREVIOUS MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND IT
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...THE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
COOLER TEMPS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS MIGRATES
NORTH ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
LOWER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING DECREASING INTO THE EARLY HOURS ON
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BY
SUNDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MAINLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH ABUNDANCE
IN MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG OVER THE WHOLE CWA AS
THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND WELL DEFINED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FEEDS
THIS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS RETURN TO THE
MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE COMBINATION OF A 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FAIRLY WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA MON AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUES AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES IF ANY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED EXCEPT
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOL AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT/CHRISTMAS EVE. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH TX MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD CHRISTMAS EVE. THE
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERMATH OF THIS
FRONT AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH
THE SUNDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH
ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ISOLATED IN NATURE CONTINUE PRODUCING SOME MODERATE SHOWERS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE LIGHT RETURNING SEAS TO LESS THAN 3 FEET.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND VERY
STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS TUES AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED GALE WARNING CRITERIA IF SUSTAINED WINDS DO NOT
REACH CRITERIA. STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WED
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REPLACE GALE WARNINGS
WEDNESDAY WED MORNING AND CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WED NIGHT AND VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MOVES
EASTWARD THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  68  57  74 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          56  68  55  75 /  30  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            55  67  54  76 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              54  66  54  77 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  67  53  79 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  68  60  72 /  30  30  20  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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